In our final NFL DFS article of the season, we discuss some wide receivers and tight ends to target for Week 17.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 4 – Wide Receivers
While there are a lot of high-end wide receivers on the board for Week 4, there are actually several cost-effective options who could be in line for big performances.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 4 – Wide Receivers
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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Although the Redskins and Panthers are both on a bye for Week 4, it doesn’t really have a significant impact in terms of viable wide receiver options in DFS as neither team’s wide receiver corps has been overly productive. Let’s dive into the schedule and examine some players to target, and some to possibly avoid, as you create your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
A.J. Green vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $8,500
DraftKings = $7,500
Green suffered groin and hip injuries that forced him to exit Sunday’s game against the Panthers. He was on pace for another big performance, hauling in five of eight targets for 58 yards in the first half. The good news is that Green was already listed as a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice and is fine according to coach Marvin Lewis.
Despite only playing in the first half Sunday, Green has received at least eight targets in all three games this season. After scoring eight touchdowns total in 2017, he already has four this season. The poor play of quarterback Andy Dalton had a negative impact on Green’s numbers last year, but Dalton has turned things around, averaging 286.7 passing yards per game this year compared to 207.5 yards per game in 2017. The Falcons are tied for the seventh-most receiving yards allowed through three weeks, leaving Green with a high floor once again.
Keenan Allen vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $8,100
DraftKings = $8,300
Allen had his worst game of the season in Week 3, catching only three of seven targets for 44 yards. He had caught at least 72.7% of his targets in both of the first two games and this was the first time he failed to top at least 50 receiving yards since Week 10 last year. Don’t read too much into this performance, though, as it came against a tough Rams secondary that has been one of the stingiest in the NFL.
While he had an extremely difficult matchup last week, things swing back in his favor against the 49ers. The 49ers have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game and are tied for the second-most passing touchdowns allowed. Allen did sit out Wednesday’s practice with a knee injury that flared up late in last week’s game, but his absence was likely just precautionary. He should be on the field Sunday, so don’t hesitate to add him to your lineup.
Davante Adams vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – Lambeau Field
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $7,800
Adams and the Packers have faced three tough defenses this year as the Bears, Vikings, and Redskins are all in the top half of the league in terms of fewest receiving yards allowed. Adams has yet to reach 100 yards in a game as a result, but he has been targeted at least eight times and hauled in a touchdown in all three contests.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is still battling through a knee injury, but it really hasn’t resulted in a significant impact in Adams’ value. The Packers don’t run the ball much either as they have the third-fewest rushing attempts in the league. Adams is their clear top receiving option and should get all the targets he can handle Sunday. The Bills defense was excellent at home against the Vikings last week, but don’t expect them to have similar success at Lambeau Field
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Jarvis Landry vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $7,000
DraftKings = $7,400
Landry was a target monster for the Dolphins last year with his 161 targets tieing him for the third-most in the league. He did score nine touchdowns, but his 8.8 yards-per-reception resulted in him failing to reach 1,000 receiving yards despite his heavy involvement. Volume certainly hasn’t been a concern since joining the Browns as his 37 targets rank sixth in the league. He’s been able to convert it into more yardage, though, with an average of 13.9 yards-per-reception.
With Josh Gordon now in New England, Landry is the unquestioned top receiving option for the Browns. Their offense wasn’t exactly explosive over the first two weeks, but the switch to Baker Mayfield at quarterback showed some promise that they could be more productive moving forward. The Raiders have allowed the second-highest yards-per-reception (14.5) this year, giving Landry a high ceiling for your entry.
Sterling Shepard vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,900
The Giants offense finally came to life in Week 3, scoring 27 points against the Texans. They made a change at right tackle by benching Ereck Flowers for Chad Wheeler and while Wheeler had his problems, the offensive line seemed to play better, overall. Manning having added time to operate helped Shepard have his best game of the season, catching six of seven targets for 80 yards and a touchdown.
Another factor that helped Shepard be more productive was the loss of tight end Evan Engram to a knee injury. Engram has already been ruled out for Week 4 and is listed as week-to-week moving forward, which should result in a significant boost to Shepard’s value. The Saints have allowed the third-most receiving yards in the league this year and just lost cornerback Patrick Robinson for the season. The Giants may be forced to throw a lot to keep up with the Saints offense, giving Shepard plenty of upside with Engram sidelined.
Tyler Boyd vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $5,800
DraftKings = $4,600
The Bengals have been searching for a receiver to take some pressure off of Green and may have found their man in Boyd. Boyd was limited to 10 games last year due to a knee injury and finished with just 22 receptions and 225 yards on 32 targets. The former second-round pick in the 2016 Draft got off to a quiet start Week 1 as well with three receptions on five targets for 26 yards. However, he’s been excellent the last two weeks, catching 12 of 16 total targets for 223 yards and two touchdowns.
Week 3 brought his best performance of the year with 132 yards, but some of that was due to the fact that Green didn’t play in the second half. That being said, Boyd still has a significant role in this offense. The Falcons defense is riddled with injuries, resulting in them allowing 28.3 points per game. They have a high powered offense as well, so there could be plenty of points put on the board by both teams. Even with Green likely back in the fold, Boyd has value at this price.
Kenny Golladay vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – AT&T Stadium
FanDuel = $5,800
DraftKings = $6,500
The Lions have one of the most talented wide receiver trios in the league in Golden Tate, Marvin Jones Jr., and Golladay. Although Golladay is listed third on their depth chart, he could be the most talented of the group. He’s certainly heavily involved in the offense, receiving at least seven targets in all three contests this year. He’s made the most of his opportunities, too, with 19 receptions, 256 yards, and two touchdowns.
The Lions can support three fantasy-relevant receivers because they have a pass-heavy offense and a lack of quality receiving options at tight end. Eric Ebron received 86 targets as a member of the Lions last year, but since he departed for the Colts, Luke Wilson now leads the team’s tight end group with five targets through three contests. Golladay is a better bargain on FanDuel than he is DraftKings, but he still has plenty of upside on both sites.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Doug Baldwin vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $7,200
DraftKings = $5,500
Baldwin suffered a knee injury Week 1 and has not played since. The Seahawks desperately need him to return and have to be encouraged that he practiced on a limited basis Wednesday. When he first suffered the injury, his original timeline for a return was two to four weeks. When healthy, Baldwin has shown he can put up impressive numbers. He’s clearly their top receiving option, but even if he does return Sunday, it might be best to wait at least another week before using him in DFS to make sure he’s completely healthy.
Marquise Goodwin vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $5,500
DraftKings = $4,800
I was as high as anyone on Goodwin heading into this season, but his outlook isn’t nearly as bright now that the 49ers lost Jimmy Garoppolo to a torn ACL. C.J. Beathard will take over at quarterback, which will be his second starting stint with the team. In seven games last year, Beathard averaged 204.3 passing yards and threw just four touchdowns compared to six interceptions. Expect their offense to take a significant step backward with him at the helm.
NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 3 – Wide Receivers
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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Through the first two weeks of the season, there have been 25 instances where a wide receiver has finished with at least 100 yards in a game. Not only have they been racking up yardage, but 13 wideouts have at least two touchdowns so far. There should be plenty of productive performances this week, as well, so let’s dive into the schedule and examine some players to target, and some to possibly avoid, as you create your DFS entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Michael Thomas vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $9,000
DraftKings = $8,900
Thomas has been dominant through the first two weeks, hauling in 28 of 30 targets for 269 yards and three touchdowns. While his 93.3% catch rate is certainly not sustainable, the amount of passes he is getting thrown his way is going to remain high. He received 121 targets in his rookie season and followed that up with 149 targets last year, which was tied for sixth-most in the NFL.
The Falcons haven’t allowed much production from wide receivers so far, but they haven’t exactly faced a ton of talent. Week 1 brought a matchup against an Eagles team missing their top wideout in Alshon Jeffery due to injury. Last week they faced the Panthers, who have some promising young talent in Devin Funchess and D.J. Moore, but they are still trying to establish themselves as reliable options. Expect Thomas to have a high floor considering his massive role in the Saints offense, especially since his seven red zone targets are the second most in the league this year.
Stefon Diggs vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – U.S. Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $8,300
DraftKings = $7,700
Diggs had a fairly quiet performance in Week 1 with only 43 receiving yards, but he still received six targets and scored a touchdown. He had a massive game Sunday against the Packers, catching nine of 13 targets for two touchdowns. He’s quickly developed a strong relationship with Kirk Cousins, who has already thrown for 669 yards through two games. Case Keenum did a nice job for the Vikings last year, but Cousins presents a higher-upside quarterback for Diggs and the rest of the Vikings receivers.
This stands out as a great matchup against the Bills, who are one of the worst teams in the league and have problems keeping their offense on the field. They also don’t have the strongest secondary and even went through the debacle of Vontae Davis retiring at halftime last week. There is some concern that the Vikings will be running the ball a lot during the second if this game gets out of hand, but Diggs should still get enough opportunities to provide significant value.
Tyreek Hill vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $8,200
DraftKings = $8,500
The Chiefs offense looks like a video game. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been amazing out of the gate, throwing 10 touchdown passes without an interception. He also has a 69.1% completion rate. He has plenty of weapons around him, but Hill might be the most dangerous. Hill has shown his big-play ability often through the first two weeks, totaling 259 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. He’s averaging 21.6 yards per reception.
The 49ers will have their hands full with the Chiefs offense. They are coming off a poor showing against the Lions where they allowed Matthew Stafford to throw for 347 yards and three touchdowns. Both Golden Tate and Kenny Golladay finished with at least 89 receiving yards in that contest. This should be another high-scoring game when you consider how poorly the Chiefs defense has played, as well, so don’t hesitate to add Hill to your lineup.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Will Fuller vs. New York Giants
Stadium – NRG Stadium
FanDuel = $7,200
DraftKings = $5,900
Fuller missed Week 1 due to a hamstring injury, which was a big blow to the Texans offense. He returned in style for Week 2, catching eight of nine targets for 113 yards and one touchdown. His presence has made a huge difference for Deshaun Watson who has averaged 35.4 fantasy points per game in his career in games that Fuller has played compared to just 17.4 fantasy points per game without him.
The Giants have done a nice job limiting receiving yards this year, but they haven’t exactly faced two offensive juggernauts in the Jaguars and Cowboys. They have a strong cornerback duo of Janoris Jenkins and Eli Apple, but they don’t have much depth past those two players. Apple is currently dealing with a groin injury and it looks like a real possibility that he won’t be able to play this week. If he can’t, the Giants are going to be hard-pressed to slow down Fuller. He’s a lock for me if Apple sits, but Fuller can still provide value even if Apple is ultimately able to play.
Nelson Agholor vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
FanDuel = $6,600
DraftKings = $6,100
Agholor only had 33 receiving yards in Week 1, but his role in the Eagles offense was clear as he hauled in eight of 10 targets. He received another 12 targets last week and was able to cash that in for eight receptions, 88 yards, and a touchdown. The Eagles were dealt another injury at receiver during that game as Mike Wallace suffered a leg injury that has since landed him on IR.
Jeffery’s status for Week 3 is still uncertain, but if he doesn’t play, Agholor is again going to get all the targets he can handle. He’ll also be catching passes from Carson Wentz for the first time this season. Although Wentz will be playing for the first time in nine months after suffering a torn ACL, the Eagles have been very calculated with his recovery and held him out until they felt comfortable that he was completely healthy. Wentz might be a little rusty, but Agholor still has plenty of upside at this price.
Marquise Goodwin vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $5,800
DraftKings = $5,500
The 49ers offense was expected to take a significant step forward with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm for an entire season. One of his most talented weapons is Goodwin, who unfortunately suffered a quad injury Week 1. Although he did return to that game, the injury forced him to miss Sunday’s contest against the Lions. While it’s still unclear if he will play in Week 3, it’s encouraging that he was a limited participant in practice Wednesday.
Goodwin has a tremendously high ceiling. His full-season pace based on the five games that Garoppolo started last year would have put him at 138 targets, 93 receptions, and 1,229 yards. If he can return for Sunday, the sky is the limit against the horrid Chiefs secondary that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers through two games.
Dede Westbrook vs. Tennesee Titans
Stadium – TIAA Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $5,500
DraftKings = $4,600
The Jaguars lost Marquise Lee to injury before the season began, dealing a tough blow to their wide receiver group. Westbrook and Keelan Cole have emerged as their top-two options so far with Westbrook receiving at least five targets in both games this year. He’s averaging 14.9 yards per reception and has already scored a touchdown after reaching the end zone only one time all last year.
In an impressive win against the Patriots last week, the Jaguars threw the ball 45 times. Some of that had to do with the fact that running back Leonard Fournette sat with an injury. With Fournette likely back this week, don’t be surprised to see them run the ball more. Even if that’s the case, Westbrook is still a cheap option worth considering for your entry because the Titans have allowed the second-most yards (469) to opposing wide receivers.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Keenan Allen vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $7,300
There is no question that Allen is one of the focal points of the Chargers offense. Over the first two games of the season, he’s recorded 14 catches on 19 targets for 175 yards and a touchdown. When healthy, he’s one of the best receivers in the league. However, this is a very tough matchup against the Rams and their stingy secondary that is led by Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib. No wide receiver has posted more than 28 receiving yards against them this year. Considering the cost required to add Allen to your entry, it might be best to spend your money elsewhere.
Sterling Shepard vs. Houston Texans
Stadium – NRG Stadium
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $4,500
The Giants have a lot of talented skill players on offense, which was going to limit Shepard’s involvement, to an extent. To make matters even worse, their porous offensive line has left Eli Manning with very little time to work in the pocket. They aren’t moving the ball well or scoring many points, which has led Shepard to only eight catches and 72 yards through the first two weeks. Until they show more signs of life on offense, taking a chance on one of their secondary pass-catching options like Shepard seems like an unnecessary risk to take.
Draftkings NFL Cash and GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 14
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 14
Week 14 is not a pretty slate by any means. This week marks the fourth week in a row that we will be without the Steelers offense and will also be missing the Patriots, Saints, and Falcons. There’s a lot of value found at the running back position, so depending on what you do at that position, it will help you differentiate your lineup. Let’s dive into it.
Vegas
Since Vegas lines have become such a huge part of the DFS community and are where most DFS players start their research, I decided to write up a portion outlining the big Vegas numbers. All Vegas totals will be taken from Vegas Insider page on Wednesday.
As if Wednesday night there is no current game lines on the Lions at Bucs and Colts at Bills. Outside of that, this week doesn’t feature any game with a huge spread. The Chargers are the biggest favorite of the week (-6) but still are within a touchdown. The Cowboys (-4), Chiefs (-4), Packers (-3.5), Titans (-3), Texans (-3), Rams (-2.5), Jags (-2.5), Vikings (-2.5), and Jets (-1) are all very marginal favorites this week.
This week doesn’t feature a lot of teams with extremely high team totals. There are nine teams currently implied to score more than three touchdowns, headlined by the Chargers with a team total of 26 points. The Chiefs (25.75), Rams (25.25), Titans (23.5), Texans (23.5), Cowboys (22.75), Eagles (22.75), Bengals (22.25), and Packers (22) round out the teams implied to score more than 21 points.
In regards to game totals, there are three game totals over 45 points. The Eagles at the Rams lead the list with a 48 over/under, followed by KC @ OAK (47.5), and LAC @ WAS (46). Of these three games, the Eagles and Rams game has seen the largest total movement with a 3 point drop from the opening 51 game total.
As with every week, check pack the Vegas Insider page on Sunday morning to get the latest Vegas data.
Quarterbacks
Quarterbacks are very thin this week on the Draftkings main slate. We will be without Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Ben Roethlisberger. Yikes.
Alex Smith (DK $6,500) – I feel like I am chasing my tail after Smith’s 23.48 point performance last week. But I expect most people to flock to Smith due to recency bias and the favorable matchup he has this week against the Raiders. Smith is going up against a Raiders defense that ranks 25th in the league in aFPA. The Raiders are riding a two-game winning streak to put them back into contention for first place in the AFC West, but have faced pedestrian quarterbacks the last two weeks. They held both Geno Smith and Paxton Lynch in check. But before that, they were lit up by Brady (28.6 FP), Cutler (27.4), Taylor (16.7), and Alex Smith (28.68). A lot is riding on this game so Smith will look to snap the four-game losing streak and regain the lead in the West. One stat worth noting if you are playing Smith, with the field, Smith has failed to meet salary expectations 4 of the last six times he was priced at $6,000 range.
Russell Wilson (DK $6,200) – At $6,200 this is the lowest price we’ve seen Russell Wilson since November of 2016. That’s insane when you consider the fact that Wilson leads all quarterbacks in scoring after his bye week. Wilson has been smashing as of late, accumulating at least 24 points in 8 of his last 10 games. Now, this week he’s priced down severely because of his tough matchup on the road against the Jaguars. The Jags rank 1st in the league in aFPA this season and are even more dominant at home than on the road. The Jags have allowed an average of 11.61 Draftking points to opposing QBs at home. When you factor that defense dominance with Wilson’s home/road splits, it doesn’t look like an ideal situation for Wilson. It’s just tough for me to write off Wilson given his production the past 10 games and his dramatic price difference. Wilson is an ideal GPP play to hedge off the field.
Jimmy Garoppolo (DK $5,500) – The lower tier is where I will likely land on quarterbacks this week. Jimmy G got his first start last week and certainly passed the eye test. Although he didn’t throw a touchdown and only scored 11.52 DK points, he completed 70% of his passes and missed the 300-yard bonus by only 7 yards. Outside of that, he looked poised under Shanahan’s offense and was able to cut through the Bears defense with just half a playbook. Now Jimmy G finds himself as a road dog against the Texans who rank 30th in aFPA. The Texan’s defense has struggled this season once JJ Watt went down and this figures to be a close game. I think this game has sneaky shootout potential and like how Garoppolo’s savings round out my lineup.
Cash:
A. Smith, J. Garoppolo, M. Stafford (If active), J. Winston
GPP:
R. Wilson, C. Wentz, J. Goff, B. Gabbert
Running Backs
Running back offers a lot of value and the top tier running backs are all in difficult spots.
LeSean McCoy (DK $7,200) – McCoy is the only running back of the top five priced backs that is expected to exceed his implied projected point based on salary. Unfortunately, as I write this, there is no line out for this game due to the Bills not naming their QB starter. But I expect to be a slight favorite at home, which benefits McCoy. McCoy has a seen his price drop to the low $7,000 for the first time since September of this season. He’s received 15 targets in the last four weeks and figures to see more check downs if Perriman is under center. The Colts rank 30th in aFPA to opposing running backs, which is why I boost McCoy slightly over Gurley for the price savings. McCoy is still a wait and see based on the Vegas line, but I like him in the higher tier.
Lamar Miller (DK $5,800) – I mentioned earlier that I like this game as a sneaky shootout. Lamar Miller is in theory in a good spot. He’s a 3 point home favorite and is going up against a 49er defense that ranks 31st in aFPA this season. I would note that Miller has only carried the ball more than 20 times once in his last six games and has yet to eclipse the 100-yard mark this season. The 49ers have only allowed 100-yard rushers to 3 running backs (Gurley, Elliott, and Peterson) this season, so their ranking may be a little misleading. I do like that Miller is averaging more at least 3 targets the last four games, but he hasn’t entirely been efficient with those opportunities. Miller is a decent cash gameplay if you need the salary relief from the top tier and want to differentiate from the value plays I’ll talk about next.
Giovani Bernard (DK $3,100) – The free square of the week. Bernard is the chalk running back this week assuming Mixon is out this week. He is near minimum price and was slashing through the Steelers defense on Monday night. There’s not much more to say here other than Bernard is near min salary and has 20+ touch upside against a Bears defense that is banged up on the defensive line. If Mixon is out, just lock Bernard in and eat the massive ownership.
Cash:
G. Bernard, T. Gurley, M. Gordon, L. McCoy, L. Miller, R. Barber (Doug Martin inactive), J. Howard
GPP:
K. Hunt, S. Perine, M. Lynch, A. Morris
Wide receivers
Wide Receivers are where you will more than likely differentiate your lineup. There are good plays at the top and in the mid-range.
DeAndre Hopkins (DK $8,500) – Hopkins is a target monster and is going up against the 49ers who rank 16th in aFPA. Hopkins has received more than 10 targets in 7 of the last 8 games. He’s exceeded value in all but one game this season and should have a big game against the 49ers secondary. If you’re paying up for any wide receiver, don’t over think it.
Josh Gordon (DK $5,500) – Every real football fan was watching Gordon last week to see if he would show any signs of the superstar he was when he first came into the league. Well if you ask me, Gordon looked a bit rusty and had some issues catching some of the balls but saw a significant amount of targets. Last week Gordon went up against a tough Chargers secondary and still saw 11 targets. This week he has what comes across as a dream matchup against the Packers who rank 32nd in aFPA. Gordon will likely be heavily owned given his talent level and his good matchup, I’m just not sold on him yet. I also don’t see how Corey Coleman ($4,100) who led the team in receiving before Gordon was activated completely disappears with 0 catches. I understand why people are on Gordon, but I might be lower than the field on him.
Sterling Shepard (DK $5,300) – I think he’s my preferred pivot off Gordon. Before his injury that sidelined him for 3 weeks, he was averaging 12 targets in week 7 and 8. Last week he disappointed with only 3 catches, but that was with Geno Smith under center. Now he’s $1,700 cheaper, in a good matchup, and has Eli Manning back under center. He’s going up against the Cowboys who rank 25th in aFPA allowed to wide receivers. I like the Giants to keep this game close, so I expect Shepard to get the volume he saw before he got hurt.
Trent Taylor (DK $3,300) – My favorite punt play at wide receiver. With Jimmy Garoppolo he came up big in what Kyle Shanahan called his “Michael Jordan game given he was puking before the game last week. Sickness and all, the rookie came away with catching 6 of his 6 targets for 92 yards and looked like Julian Edelman for Garoppolo early last year.
Cash:
D. Hopkins, L. Fitzgerald, A. Green, A. Thielen, J. Gordon, G. Tate, S. Shepard, E. Sanders
GPP:
K. Allen, T. Hill, D. Bryant, D. Adams, M. Crabtree, S. Diggs, C. Coleman, G. Tate, M. Goodwin, D. Thomas,
Tight End:
A lot of value opens up at tight end this week. As always you can be contrarian by paying up for the studs like Kelce, but this week the way to go for cash games is down at the barrel.
Stephen Anderson (DK $3,200) – Anderson had a breakout game last week against the Titans filling in for Bruce Ellington and Cj Fiedorowicz. Anderson saw 12 targets and caught 5 of them for 79 yards and a touchdown. Anderson was a wide receiver in college and is a freak athlete and will figure to see work out of the slot this week. It’s worth monitoring if Will Fuller will play this week as that may eat into some of his targets. But Anderson should be a popular value play.
Trey Burton (DK $2,900) – Zach Ertz is in the concussion protocol. At this point there isn’t much being reported other than Ertz is with the team. IF Ertz is inactive, this opens up a ton of value at tight end, and Burton will almost be another lock and play. When Ertz missed week 9 against the Broncos, Burton filled in with 2 catches for 41 yards and a touchdown pass.
Cash:
T. Kelce, J.Witten, S. Anderson, T. Burton (Ertz), A. Seferian-Jenkins
GPP:
H. Henry, K. Rudolph, C. Clay, J. Graham
Defense
Cincinnati Bengals (DK $3,300) – I like the Bengals this week as a home favorite against a team that has an implied total of 16.25.
New York Jets (DK $3,300) – The Broncos offensive line is vulnerable right now. That means Leonard Williams will have several opportunities to get to Trevor Siemian.
Cash:
Bengals, Packers, Jets
GPP:
Jaguars, Titans, Vikings
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 11
Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 11
Week 11 means we’ve made it to the end of the bye weeks! Only four teams are on bye this week, and they are the 49ers, Jets, Colts, and the Panthers. We typically three of those four defenses for Quarterbacks but this week we have a fair amount of options on the Draftkings main slate. A big note for this slate is that the Patriots and Raiders game will be played in Mexico City where the stadium sits over 7,000 feet above sea level. There could be a chance that players get tired as the game progresses.
The Draftkings main slate is without a few really good games this week, which means the PrimeTime slate should be a lot of fun this week. The Sunday Night Football game features the 1st seed Eagles at Dallas in a division rivalry, while the Monday Night game has the Falcons going to Seattle.
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Vegas:
Since Vegas has become such a huge part of the DFS community and is where most DFS players start their research, I decided to write up a portion outlining the big Vegas numbers. All Vegas totals will be taken from Fantasy Labs Vegas page on Wednesday.
This week there are currently two games with a game total over 50 with the Patriots and the Raiders sitting at 53.5 and the Redskins at the Saints sitting at 51. These two games are above the rest of the pack with three games sitting with a total over 44. The Bills at Chargers (44), Chiefs at Giants (45), and the Rams at Vikings (45.5).
There are three games that Vegas has as over a touchdown favorite. The Chiefs led the way with as 10 ½ point favorite over the Giants, The Saints and Jags are tied for second on the main slate with a 7.5 point edge over the Redskins and the Browns, respectively. And the Patriots are 7 point favorites against the Raiders. There are four teams with implied team totals over 24 points. The Chargers (24), Vikings (24), Chiefs (27.75), Saints (29.25), and the Patriots (30.25).
I encourage you to check out the Fantasy Labs page on Sunday morning to see if there are any drastic changes to these game totals. Of course, Lineup Labs subs have access to this information in the player pool. Let’s dive into the slate.
Quarterbacks:
This is a pretty good week for Quarterbacks. There are plenty of good options at the high priced tier, and a few good value plays. Starting with Drew Brees.
Drew Brees (DK $ 6,800) – Brees is the 2nd highest priced quarterback on the DK main slate. Brees is in an ideal spot as a home favorite with a high team total (29.25) and a high total (51). Brees has historically done well at home and Washington ranks in the middle of the pack in aFPA to quarterbacks this season. Brees will likely be one of the most popular quarterbacks on the slate with his price reaching a season-low 6.8K. The concern here is that the Saints are not the same Saints team that we could on to throw the ball 40-50 times per game. The Saints are passing the ball only 52% of the time this season compared to 64% of the time last season. Brees has not attempted over 30 passes since week 7 against the Packers. Brees is always a threat to have a huge game at home. He will be popular so fade him at your own risk.
Alex Smith (DK $6,700) – If you are fading Brees, don’t overlook Alex Smith. Smith is about the same price as Brees and has similar Vegas numbers. Chiefs are big favorites (10.5), have a high total (27.75), and are facing a putrid Giants defense that just allowed CJ Bethard to score 26 DK points against them. The Giants are 30th in the league in aFPA to quarterbacks this season and have gotten burned by Jared Goff, Russell Wilson (on the road), Trevor Siemian, Philip Rivers, and Jameis Winston the past six weeks. This Giants team is #bad, and the Chiefs will have no problem with them coming off of a bye (Andy Reid is 16-2 lifetime coming off of a bye). I’d lean more on Smith than Brees because the Chiefs have a 57% rate and Smith provides some rushing upside. Smith is my favorite QB this week.
Blaine Gabbert (DK $4,900) *expected to start* – I know, you probably threw up in your mouth and are skipping over this section. But Gabbert is getting his first start of the season against the Texans. The Texans rank 29th in aFPA allowed and have been burned for more than 20 points in four of the past five weeks by quarterbacks. Gabbert looked okay this past preseason, completing 61% of his passes and a QBR of 85.9. Bottomline is you’re probably not going to roster Gabbert here, but he’s super cheap and is going up against a bad Texans’ defense and has plenty of weapons to make plays for him.
Cash:
Smith, Brees, Brady, Carr
GPP:
(Above) Cousins, Rivers (if active), Cutler, Gabbert
Running back:
There isn’t a clear standout running back on this slate, so there isn’t an incredibly priced up player like we saw last week at $9,800. This week Gurley (8.4K) is the highest priced back and Fournette (8.2K), Ingram (8.1K), and Hunt (8K) all round out the $8,000 range.
Leonard Fournette (DK $8,200) – Fournette burned me last week in his first game back. He was in an ideal spot and threw up a complete dud in my lineups. I generally don’t like playing running backs against the Browns, but this is a situation where I’m watching the weather very closely. Winds are expected to reach upwards of 20MPH on Sunday in Cleveland, and the Jags already hate putting the ball in Blake Bortles’ hand. The Jags run a league-high 51% of the time and are 7 ½ points favorites. If the weather holds up as it looks right now, this could be a sluggish game that Fournette ends up touching the ball around 30 times.
Kareem Hunt (DK $8,000) – I think Hunt will be the most popular top priced running back of the four mentioned above. The Giants rank 27th in aFPA for running backs and Kareem Hunt is a huge favorite with one of the highest implied team total. He’s not a bad play by any means, I just really like getting my exposure to this Chiefs offense through the passing attack. Also, I’ve seen Hunt turn into a 2-down back and be replaced by Charcandrick West more than I’m comfortable. In the Chiefs, las game Hunt saw his snap count dip from 67% to 54%. He still got 5 targets in the game, but only touched the ball 13 times. I understand that Hunt is in a good spot, I just like the passing attack more for KC. This could be a week that I venture away from the top priced running backs.
Alvin Kamara (DK $7,500) – Kamara just might be my favorite running back this week. He’s $600 cheaper than Mark Ingram and gives me exposure to both the Saints passing and rushing attacks. The past two weeks Kamara is only playing in 39% of the snaps but is receiving 92% of the targets out of the backfield. He’s combined for 40% of the running back targets with 33 compared to Ingram’s 38. Although the snaps are quite even, Brees looks to Kamara often, and on a PPR format like DK, Kamara only needs about 5 catches for 50 yards to put him on pace to reach value.
Rex Burkhead ($3,600), Dion Lewis ($4,200), James White ($4,700) – The trio of Patriots running backs are going to be somewhat popular. Burkhead might carry the highest ownership with his 3.6K price tag. But to try to figure out which running back, Bill Belichick will use, is anyone’s guess. Last week Burkhead led the three backs in snaps with 51% (Lewis 30%, White 16%, Bolden 3%). Lewis led the team in rushing attempts with 50% (Burkhead 36%, White 7%, Bolden 7%). Burkhead was tied with White in targets with 3 targets apiece (Lewis had 0). At the end of all this the touches brokedown this way – Lewis 14 touches, Burkhead 13, White 5, and Bolden 2. Like I said, anyone’s guess who will emerge here. I’d imagine Burkhead would be the best player because of his ability to catch and rush the ball, along with his low price. But it’s very tough.
Cash:
T. Gurley, L. Fournette, K. Hunt, M.Ingram, A. Kamara, M. Gordon, R. Burkhead
GPP:
(All Above), C. Thompson, Pats RBs, K. Drake
Wide Receivers:
Michael Thomas (DK $ 7,400) – Thomas is the second highest price wide receiver and will be popular. He’s going to be the conventional stack with Brees. Thomas is 7th in the league with 83 targets, averaging over 9 targets per game. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since week 4 against so we can expect some positive regression for him. The one concern some people may have in rostering him could be ill-advised. People might be concerned that Josh Norman could shadow him, but that is not expected to be the case here. Josh Norman does not shadow receivers and has played all, but a handful of plays on the left side of the defense.75% of Thomas’ snaps are on the right side of the formation so he should avoid Norman for most of the game.
Sterling Shepard (DK $6,300) – Another popular play here with Shepard coming off of a 13 target game and 28 DK points. Shepard has received 22 targets in his last two games and had turned that into some good production (16 catches, 212 yards, 40.2 DK points). The Giants are likely going to be trailing, which will force Eli to throw the ball upwards of 30 times, and that means Shephard is likely to see 10+ targets again. The Chiefs are 31st aFPA to wide receivers so he should be a lock for cash games. His price continues to rise with his production as of late, but you’re looking at a receiver with a floor of 5 catches and 70 yards.
Tyreek Hill (DK $7,100) – This middle tier price range will be popular this week, especially without a clear stud to pay up for. Hill is typically more of a tournament play than a cash game play, but the matchup lines up perfectly for him this week. The Giants are one of the worst teams in the league at giving up the deep ball, and that fits perfectly into Hill’s game. Hill doesn’t have an exceptionally high floor, but his ceiling is the perfect play for tournaments.
Michael Crabtree (DK $6,600) & Amari Cooper ($6,000) – Going a little cheaper from the guys mentioned above, you can’t go wrong with either of the top two receivers for the Raiders. The Raiders are a touchdown underdog in the game with the highest total between two offenses that have the firepower to put up points. We’ve seen Derrick Carr eclipse more than 30 attempts in each of his last four games, including two game of over 49. It’s easy to see the Raiders airing the ball out to either keep up with the Pats or maintain a lead. If Carr is likely to throw 45+ times, these two could be in store for 10+ targets each against a Patriots defense that is much improved but still ranks 29th aFPA to wide receivers.
Value
Jeremy Maclin (DK $4,500) – Maclin caught 8 of his 9 targets last week for 98 yards against the Titans. This week he faces the Packers who rank 28th in aFPA to wide receivers this season.
Bruce Ellington (DK $3,000) – Ellington stepped in for an injured Will Fuller and caught 4 of his 8 targets for 41 yards and a touchdown against the Rams. Ellington is going to face the 2nd corner with Patrick Peterson likely to follow DeAndre Hopkins all over the field.
Cash:
M. Thomas, S. Shepard, T. Hill, A. Cooper, J. Maclin, B. Cooks
GPP:
(All of the Above) D. Hopkins (too cheap), M. Wallace, M. Crabtree, E. Sanders, K. Allen, M. Evans, A. Thielen.
Tight End:
The top-priced tight ends are all in great spots (Kelce, Gronk, Engram). If you can fit one into your lineup, they are the clear top plays of the slate.
Tyler Kroft (DK $2,900) – A nice salary put here. Kroft has done a great job exceeding value since Tyler Eifert went down for the season. This week we get him at a discount after a poor performance in week 10. He faces the Broncos who have a tight end funnel pass defense and rank 30th in aFPA against tight ends. Kroft has scored at least 9 DK points in 3 of his last 4 games.
Martellus Bennett (DK $2,800) – Bennett could be a sneaky pivot off of Gronk. In only a short period time with the Pats, Bennett caught all 3 of his targets for 38 yards last week. You don’t need much at 2.8K, a touchdown and 20 yards will give you a little more than 3X
Cash:
T. Kelce, R. Gronkowski, E. Engram, V. Davis (if Reed is out), T. Kroft
GPP:
(All of Above) J. Cook, B. Watson, J. Gresham, C. Brate
Defense:
LA Chargers (DK $3,000) – The Chargers are facing rookie quarterback Nathan Peterman in his first career start. The Chargers have a great defensive line and should be able to bring pressure on Peterman, forcing sacks and possibly interceptions.
Cash:
JAX, LAC, HOU, ARI, DEN,
GPP:
BAL, KC, NO, CIN