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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/25/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/25/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

Games will be spread throughout the day Wednesday, leaving fewer options than normal if you are playing the evening slate in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/25/18

Clayton Kershaw vs. Miami Marlins
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $11,400
DraftKings = 14,000

Kershaw is well on his way to another dominant season. Although he is only 1-3 through five starts, he has a sparkling 2.45 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. His strikeouts are slightly down at 9.5 K/9, but with a K/9 of at least 10.4 in four straight seasons, don’t expect that to be a trend that continues much longer. He has also shown impeccable control with a 0.8 BB/9 and throwing a first-pitch strike to 70% of the batters that he has faced. He’s an excellent option regardless of opponent, but he gets an extremely favorable matchup against a Marlins offense that has hit the fewest home runs (14) and has the third-lowest batting average (.223) in baseball.

Jake Faria vs. Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $5,900
DraftKings = $6,300

The Rays and Orioles were rained out Tuesday, pushing Faria’s start to Wednesday. His 5.82 ERA and 1.59 WHIP this season don’t exactly look appealing, but a lot of that was due to him giving up eight earned runs in 1.2 innings against the Red Sox during his second start of the season. He’s been much better outside of that outing, allowing three earned runs across 15.1 innings in his other starts. He has also shown some strikeout upside, registering at least six of them in back-to-back starts. The Orioles have the lowest batting average (.215) in baseball, so Faria might be worth the risk in tournament play.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/25/18

Cody Bellinger vs. Trevor Richards, Miami Marlins
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $3,900
DraftKings = $4,500

Bellinger isn’t exactly on fire right now, hitting 2-for-16 in his last five games. However, his two hits were a double and a home run and he also drew three walks during that stretch. He only has three home runs this season overall, but he’s batted a respectable .271. Bellinger had a .383 wOBA against right-handers last year, so facing Richards and his 1.68 WHIP might be just what he needs to start a hot streak.

Matt Olson vs. Doug Fister, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $4,300

Olson hit for a ton of power in 59 games last year, finishing with a .651 slugging percentage. His 40.3% hard-hit rate was excellent and has been even better this season at 50%. He only has three home runs to show for it, but that shouldn’t last for long if he keeps hitting the ball with this kind of authority. He had a 181 wRC+ against righties last year, leaving him with excellent upside against Fister, who doesn’t have an overpowering pitch arsenal.

Others to consider: Joey Gallo (first base) and Yasmani Grandal (catcher)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/25/18

Jed Lowrie vs. Doug Fister, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $4,600

At this point, the only reason not to play Lowrie in DFS is if you can’t fit his price tag into your entry. He already has 12 multi-hit games this season and is batting .363 with six home runs and eight doubles. The Athletics have had one of the most potent offenses in baseball in the early going and Lowrie’s success in a big reason why. He also has a .344 average in 33 career plate appearances against Fister, so he makes a lot of sense again Wednesday.

Joey Wendle vs. Alex Cobb, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $3,200

Wendle is not a big home run hitter, but he did have a career .288 batting average in 641 games in the minors. He’s getting a chance to play every day for the rebuilding Rays and is off to a hot start, hitting .304 with a .385 OBP. His 40.5% hard-hit rate is probably unsustainable, so he may experience some regression as the league gets more familiar with how to pitch to him. Cobb has a horrible 15.43 ERA and 3.14 WHIP through his first two starts, so Wendle might be able to provide value.

Others to consider: Brock Holt and Chase Utley

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/25/18

Mike Moustakas vs. Jhoulys Chacin, Milwaukee Brewers
Stadium – Kauffman Stadium
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $4,300

The Royals have one of the worst lineups in baseball despite bringing back Moustakas, who hit a career-high 38 home runs last year. He certainly hasn’t been the problem, batting .307 with six home runs and five doubles so far. He had a .353 wOBA against right-handers last year and is at .470 against them so far in 2018, leaving him as a great option to consider for your entry.

Jeimer Candelario vs. Chad Kuhl, Pittsburgh Pirates
Stadium – PNC Park
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = NA

Candelario has been one of the better hitters this season for the rebuilding Tigers, hitting .277 with three home runs, 10 RBI, and a .355 OBP. Kuhl’s 4.57 ERA this year is not terrible, but he’s allowed way too many baserunners with a 1.62 WHIP. That’s been a trend for him throughout his career with a WHIP of  1.44 in 249.2 innings. He also allowed a .376 wOBA to left-handed hitters last year, which is good news for the switch-hitting Candelario on Wednesday.

Others to consider: Travis Shaw and Rafael Devers

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/25/18

Manny Machado vs. Jake Faria, Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $4,800

Machado is looking to put his .259 batting average from last year firmly in the rearview mirror, hitting .360 out of the gates this season. His power numbers haven’t suffered either with eight home runs and seven doubles through 23 games. Most of his struggles came on the road last season, hitting .229 compared to .288 at home. Although I think using Faria in tournament play is a viable option based on the Orioles lineup as a whole, Machado could give him problems.

Corey Seager vs. Trevor Richards, Miami Marlins
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $4,400

Seager is not off to a good start this season with a .241 average and just one home run. He has a .275 BABIP and his 35.7% hard-hit rate is well below his career mark, which has been a big reason for his struggles. Richards isn’t a strikeout pitcher though and Seager did have a .353 wOBA against righties last year, so don’t be surprised if he busts out of his funk Wednesday.

Others to consider: Paul DeJong and Adeiny Hechavarria

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/25/18

Christian Yelich vs. Jason Hammel, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Kauffman Stadium
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $4,600

Yelich has been limited to only 12 games this season due to injury, but he’s performed well in limited action with a .319 average and two home runs. He continues to show an excellent eye at the plate with a .407 OBP after posting an OBP of at least .362 in every season of his career. He finished with a 123 wRC+ last year against righties compared to just 94 against lefties, so he could be in line for a valuable performance against Hammel.

Denard Span vs. Alex Cobb, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $3,500

Span is off to a very unlikely start, driving in 17 runs in 18 games. Last year he had only 43 RBI in 129 games for the Giants. He has mostly batted leadoff this season, with the extra at-bats giving him a boost in DFS. He’s not going to keep up with this RBI pace, but he’s a viable option to consider Tuesday against the struggling Cobb.

Matt Joyce vs. Doug Fister, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $2,800
DraftKings = $3,500

Joyce is one of those cheap options you want to target when he’s facing a right-handed pitcher. He has just a 62 wRC+ against lefties in his career, but a 123 wRC+ against righties. Fister allowed a .365 wOBA to lefties last year, so make sure to take advantage of the budget savings that Joyce can provide.

Others to consider: Tommy Pham and Shin-Soo Choo

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

Tuesday could be a big night for offense in baseball as many teams will be sending a member of the back end of their rotation to the mound. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Kenta Maeda vs. Miami Marlins
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $9,100
DraftKings = $9,300

Maeda is off to a strange start. His ERA sits at 3.77 despite having a 1.06 FIP. He has a crazy high 1.74 WHIP but has accompanied that with an equally stunning 15.1 K/9. For his career, he has a 1.17 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. He’s not going to keep up this strikeout pace, but his opponents .513 BABIP obviously won’t hold up either. Tuesday brings a great matchup against the Marlins who are in the bottom-five in baseball in runs scored, batting average and slugging percentage. Maeda isn’t overly expensive either, making him a pitcher to build your team around.

Zach Davis vs. Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Kauffman Stadium
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $7,000

Davies finished with a respectable 3.90 ERA in 2017 despite having a career-low 5.8 K/9. A lot of his success can be attributed to his career-low 28.8% hard-hit rate. He’s off to an inconsistent start this season, to say the least, through four starts. In two starts against the Cardinals and Mets, he allowed 11 earned runs in 10 innings. In his other to starts, he allowed one earned run in 12.1 innings against the Cubs and Reds. He’s a bit of a risky play, but the good news is that he gets to face a Royals lineup that has scored the fewest runs in baseball this season. His strikeout upside isn’t great, but he’s still a tournament play option.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Josh Bell vs. Jordan Zimmermann, Detroit Tigers
Stadium – PNC Park
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $3,500

Bell is off to a slow start in the power department, slugging just one home run so far this season. His ISO is only .120, but don’t expect it to stay that low for too much longer considering his career mark of .188. After posting a .343 wOBA against right-handers last year, he gets to face Zimmermann on Tuesday, who lefties crushed for a .375 wOBA in 2017.

Brandon Belt vs. Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $3,700

Last year was a season to forget for Belt, who hit .241 and was limited to 104 games due to injury. He had only a .284 BABIP compared to his career mark of .334 and he still had a hard-hit rate of 38.4%, so he was a candidate to improve this season as long as he can stay healthy. He’s been just that so far and is off to a fantastic start, batting .290 with five home runs and a .392 OBP. Not only does he have a career 132 wRC+ against righties, but he has had excellent success against Roark, hitting 5-for-12 with a home run and three walks against him in his career.

Others to consider: Justin Smoak (first base) and Yasmani Grandal (catcher)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Jed Lowrie vs. Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $4,500

Lowrie may be off to one of the most surprising starts in baseball this season, tied for the second-most RBI (23) in the league. He’s batting a lofty .357, but a lot of that has to do with his .403 BABIP, which is over one hundred points higher than his career mark. A switch-hitter, he has a career .340 wOBA against lefties, so look to ride his hot streak again Tuesday.

Joey Wendle vs. Alex Cobb, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $3,100

Wendle is not a big home run hitter, but he did have a career .288 batting average in 641 games in the minors. He’s getting a chance to play every day for the rebuilding Rays and is off to a hot start, hitting .304 with a .385 OBP. His 40.5% hard-hit rate is probably unsustainable, so he may experience some regression as the league gets more familiar with how to pitch to him. Cobb has a horrible 15.43 ERA and 3.14 WHIP through his first two starts, so Wendle might be able to provide value.

Others to consider: DJ LeMahieu and Howie Kendrick

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Nolan Arenado vs. Eric Lauer, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Coors Field
FanDuel = $5,100
DraftKings = $5,400

Arenando has been on fire since returning from his suspension, going 9-for-16 with three home runs and six RBI in four games. This will be left-hander Lauer’s first appearance in the majors, which is no easy task at Coors Field. Arenado had a 220 wRC+ against lefties last year, so don’t be surprised if he greets Lauer rudely Tuesday.

Matt Chapman vs. Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $4,100

Chapman has slowed down a bit after his torrid start, but he still has a hit in four of his last five games. He’s shown a significant improvement in his pitch selection in the early going, increasing his walk rate and decreasing his strikeout rate from last year. Hamels held lefties to a sparkling .215 wOBA last year, but righties fared much better at .324. This could be a good game to stack Athletic righties, Chapman included.

Others to consider: Adrian Beltre and Daniel Robertson

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Manny Machado vs. Jake Faria, Tampa Bay Rays
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $4,700
DraftKings = $5,200

Machado is looking to put his .259 batting average from last year firmly in the rearview mirror, hitting .360 out of the gates this season. His power numbers haven’t suffered either with eight home runs and seven doubles through 23 games. Most of his struggles came on the road last season, hitting .229 compared to .288 at home. Faria doesn’t exactly have overpowering stuff, so Machado could keep things rolling in this game.

Marcus Semien vs. Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $3,700

Semien has been hitting the ball with authority so far this season, posting a 37.3% hard-hit rate compared to his 29.1% career mark. He has shown he can hit for power when healthy, clubbing 27 home runs in 159 games in 2016. Right-handed pitchers have given him trouble with a career .299 wOBA, but he’s recorded a .344 wOBA against lefties. He’s yet another Athletics right-handed hitter with upside Tuesday.

Others to consider: Trea Turner and Adeiny Hechavarria

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/24/18

Khris Davis vs. Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $4,700

Davis rounds out the list of righties you may want to stack against Hamels. Not only is Davis off to a great start with six home runs and 21 RBI, but he has owned Hamels in his career, hitting three home runs and drawing five walks in 18 plate appearances.

Denard Span vs. Alex Cobb, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $3,300

Span is another player on the list for most unlikely start, driving in 17 runs in 18 games. Last year he had only 43 RBI in 129 games for the Giants. He has mostly batted leadoff this season, with the extra at-bats giving him a boost in DFS. He’s not going to keep up with this RBI pace, but he’s a viable option to consider Tuesday against the struggling Cobb.

Matt Kemp vs. Dillon Peters, Miami Marlins
Stadium – Dodger Stadium
FanDuel = $2,600
DraftKings = $3,600

Kemp hasn’t disappointed so far in his second stint with the Dodgers, batting .321 with three home runs. He is a prime regression candidate though with his .417 BABIP and 46.2% hard-hit rate both well above his career marks. He does mash lefties with a career 147 wRC+ and faces a struggling one in Peters on Tuesday. Based on his cheap price, Kemp could provide significant value in this game, especially on FanDuel.

Others to consider: J.D. Martinez and Mallex Smith

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/18/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/18/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

Wednesday consists of several day games in Major League Baseball, leaving a lot of options for both the early and late slates in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/18/18

Jose Berrios vs. Cleveland Indians
Stadium – Hiram Bithorn Stadium
FanDuel = $9,800
DraftKings = $11,000

Berrios is one of the jewels of the Twins farm system and he was excellent in his first significant run in the starting rotation last year, finishing with a 3.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 8.6 K/9 in 145.2 innings. He held batters to just a 27.9% hard-hit rate and a 9.1% HR/FB rate. He’s off to an even better start this year, posting a 2.18 ERA, 1.68 FIP and a microscopic 0.63 WHIP through three outings. Teams continue to have a hard time squaring him up with an 18.4% hard-hit rate to go along with his 10.5 K/9. The Indians have the lowest team batting average (.208) and OBP (.284) in the majors, leaving Berrios with excellent upside.

Jake Faria vs. Texas Rangers
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $5,500
DraftKings = $6,200

Faria was hit hard in his second start of the season against the Red Sox, allowing eight earned runs in 1.2 innings. He had major control issues in that game that resulted in five walks. Outside of that, he allowed two earned runs total in 9.1 innings in his other two outings. It may not be a coincidence that he was destroyed in his only road start so far this season and that he didn’t pitch nearly as poorly at home. He finished with a 3.10 ERA at Tropicana Field last year compared to 3.72 on the road, but more importantly, he had just a 1.06 WHIP at home while posting a 1.35 WHIP on the road. Against an easier lineup in the Rangers on Wednesday, he might be worth the risk in tournament play for the early late.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/18/18

Cody Bellinger vs. Luis Perdomo, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Petco Park
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $4,500

Bellinger has yet to display the same power that he had in 2017, slugging just two home runs so far. He hasn’t struggled though, posting a .297 average in the early going. He dominated right-handed pitching last year, resulting in a .383 wOBA against them. Perdomo also had his struggles against left-handed hitters by allowing a .349 wOBA to them last year, making Bellinger an excellent option to consider Wednesday.

Yasmani Grandal vs. Luis Perdomo, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Petco Park
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $3,800

Grandal is swinging a hot bat right now, hitting 10-for-29 with two home runs and nine RBI in his last seven games. A switch-hitter, Grandal has been better against righties in his career with a .343 wOBA. Not only does Perdomo struggle against lefties, but he has a hard time keeping runners off base in general with a career 1.57 WHIP, which includes his staggering 2.09 WHIP through three starts this season.

Others to consider: Paul Goldschmidt (first base) and C.J. Cron (first base)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/18/18

Jose Altuve vs. Mike Leake, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $4,400
DraftKings = $5,000

Altuve is hitting for a high average again at .314, but he has shown very little power with just two doubles and no home runs. He has hit at least 39 doubles in four straight seasons and hit exactly 24 home runs in each of the late two years, so expect him to turn things around sooner rather than later. He could be in line for a big performance Wednesday against Leake, who doesn’t have an overpowering pitch arsenal with a career 6.1 K/9.

Howie Kendrick vs. Steven Matz, New York Mets
Stadium – Citi Field
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $3,500

Kendrick continues to fly under the radar as an important part of the Nationals lineup, hitting .300 with two home runs and seven RBI this season. His .348 BABIP is almost right on par with his career mark of .340, so it’s not unreasonable to think that he can continue to hit for a high average. He finished with a 137 wRC+ against lefties last year, making him a cost-effective option to consider against Matz on Wednesday.

Others to consider: Jed Lowrie and Cesar Hernandez

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/18/18

Travis Shaw vs. Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Miller Park
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $3,600

Mahle threw six shutout innings in his first start of the season against the Cubs but has come crashing back down to Earth by allowing 10 total runs in his last two starts. Hitters have been squaring him up well with a 40% hard-hit rate overall. Shaw posted a 127 wRC+ against righties last year, so don’t be surprised if he has a big game against Mahle.

Jeimer Candelario vs. Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Comerica Park
FanDuel = $2,600
DraftKings = $3,400

Candelario showed promise in his brief stint with the Tigers last year, batting .330 with a .406 OBP in 27 games. He had a .270 average and .350 OBP during his career in the minors, so regression was likely in the cards heading into this season. He has only hit .220 out of the gates, but he does have four doubles, two triples and one home run so far. Gausman is struggling yet again with a 1.60 WHIP through three starts, so it might be worth taking a chance on Candelario at this cheap price.

Others to consider: Yangervis Solarte and David Freese

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/18/18

Trea Turner vs. Steven Matz, New York Mets
Stadium – Citi Field
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $4,600

Turner has shown signs of coming out of his slump in the first two games of this series, hitting a combined 5-for-9 with three runs scored and two stolen bases. He’ll continue to bat leadoff with Adam Eaton (ankle) sidelined, giving him added value in DFS. It also gives him a chance to swipe more bases as well.

Corey Seager vs. Luis Perdomo, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Petco Park
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $4,400

Seager recorded just his third multi-hit game of the season Tuesday and is only batting .212 so far. He’s been very unlucky with a .236 BABIP, so don’t expect him to continue to hit this poorly for much longer. He finished with a .353 wOBA against right-handed pitching last year, which should make him a candidate for your entry against the struggling Perdomo on Wednesday.

Others to consider: Manny Machado and Trevor Story

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/18/18

J.D. Martinez vs. Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels
Stadium – Angel Stadium
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $4,900

Martinez hasn’t carried over his torrid pace from the end of last year to his new team, but he certainly hasn’t struggled by hitting .271 with three home runs and 13 RBI. He absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching last year, finishing with a 235 wRC+ against them that ranked second in baseball. Skaggs is off to a great start, but he could be in for trouble against Martinez.

Josh Reddick vs. Mike Leake, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $4,100

The Astros lineup is loaded with excellent right-handed hitters, making Reddick an extremely important left-handed compliment. He does his job well, posting a .363 wOBA against righties in 2017. He’s off to another great start against them this year with a .443 wOBA, so don’t hesitate to add him to your lineup Wednesday.

Franchy Cordero vs. Kenta Maeda, Los Angeles Dodgers
Stadium – Petco Park
FanDuel = $2,800
DraftKings = $3,500

One of the up-and-coming young players in the Padres system, Cordero is getting a chance to show his stuff with Wil Myers (arm) and Manuel Margot (ribs) on the DL. He’s only hit .231 through seven games, but he has already slugged two home runs. He was a career .282 hitter in the minors, so he should show improvement in his batting average as he continues to get accustomed to the league. Maeda has a 2.08 ERA so far this season, but it could have been worse due to his 1.73 WHIP. If you want to take a chance on a cheap outfielder with upside, Cordero might be your man.

Others to consider: Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/17/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/17/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

The weather doesn’t seem like it will be a big issue in baseball Tuesday, which should hopefully leave us with a full night of options in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/17/18

Patrick Corbin vs. San Francisco Giants
Stadium – Chase Field
FanDuel = $9,500
DraftKings = $9,800

Corbin is off to an excellent start this season, posting a 2.45 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 14.2 K/9 through three starts. He’s never had a K/9 above 8.4 and has a career WHIP of 1.34, so he is likely in line for some regression across the board as the season wears on. However, Tuesday brings an excellent matchup against a bad Giants lineup that has scored the second-fewest runs (49) in baseball this season. Although both Corey Kluber and Shohei Ohtani are taking the mound Tuesday, Corbin could provide similarly excellent results at a more reasonable price.

Yonny Chirinos vs. Texas Rangers
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $4,700

Chirinos has been one of the pitchers the Rays have thrown out first on their “bullpen days”, but he’s pitched so well that he’s made a case to be in the starting rotation moving forward. In 14.1 innings this season, he has yet to allow a run and has a sparkling 0.70 WHIP. His K/9 isn’t great at 7.5, but he’s shown excellent control with a 1.3 BB/9. He’s obviously going to give up a run at some point and has been a bit lucky with opponents posting a .222 BABIP, but he’ll face a Rangers lineup Tuesday that is missing Elvis Andrus (elbow), Rougned Odor (hamstring) and Delino DeShields Jr. (hand). At this price, Chirinos might be worth the risk in tournament play.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/17/18

Yasmani Grandal vs. Bryan Mitchell, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Petco Park
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $3,600

The Padres have a lot of young promising players, but Mitchell is not one of them. Brought over in a trade from the Yankees to help fill out their rotation, Mitchell has been awful through three starts. Not only does he have a 6.64 FIP, but he has only three strikeouts compared to 14 walks. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff by any means, making Grandal a great option for your entry considering the hot bat he is swinging as well.

C.J. Cron vs. Matt Moore, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $2,800
DraftKings = $2,800

Moore has been almost as bad as Mitchell, recording an 8.76 ERA and 2.11 WHIP through three starts. Opponents are squaring him up well with a 44.7% hard-hit rate after he allowed a career-high 34.7% hard-hit rate in 2017. Cron is a better hitter against lefties, finishing with a .331 wOBA against them last year. If you’re looking to save money at the position. Cron is a viable option.

Others to consider: Cody Bellinger (first base) and Joey Votto (first base)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/17/18

Jed Lowrie vs. Miguel Gonzalez, Chicago White Sox
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $3,900

Lowrie is off to a scorching start this season, batting .343 with four home runs and 14 RBI. His BABIP sits at .392, so expect that to come down close to his career mark of .296 at some point in the near future. He could keep his hot streak going for at least one more game Tuesday though, in a favorable matchup against Gonzalez, who only has a career 6.3 K/9. Lowrie also hits right-handers well, finishing with a 123 wRC+ against them in 2017.

Jonathan Villar vs. Sal Romano, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Miller Park
FanDuel = $2,800
DraftKings = $3,000

After a breakout 2016 campaign, Villar came crashing back to Earth last year hitting .241 with a .293 OBP. His .373 BABIP from 2016 dropped to .330 last season, which was a big reason for his decline in production. He’s shown improvement with a .273 average in the early going and will get to bat from his stronger side of the plate against the righty Romano on Tuesday, who has struggled with a 1.50 WHIP in his brief Major League career.

Others to consider: Jose Altuve and Ian Kinsler

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/17/18

Kris Bryant vs. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
Stadium – Wrigley Field
FanDuel = $5,100
DraftKings = $5,100

Bryant is not only batting .352 this season, but he has more walks (10) than strikeouts (eight). He’ll face Wainwright on Tuesday who is a shell of his former self, posting an ERA of at least 4.62 and a WHIP of at least 1.40 in both of the last two seasons. He hasn’t been any better in 2018, recording  5.06 ERA and 1.50 WHIP through two starts.

Travis Shaw vs. Sal Romano, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Miller Park
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $4,100

Shaw is off to a bit of a slow start, hitting only .266 through the first 16 games of the season. He has just a 23.5% hard-hit rate, which is significantly lower than his career mark of 33.7%. Facing Romano might be just what he needs to jump-start his bat since he had a .373 wOBA against right-handers in 2017.

Others to consider: Todd Frazier and Matt Carpenter

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/17/18

Carlos Correa vs. Ariel Miranda, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $4,700
DraftKings = $4,800

Miranda is making his first start of the season after finishing with a 5.12 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 7.7 K/9 in 2017. He wasn’t a big strikeout pitcher in the minors either with a career 8.3 K/9. Correa’s 187 wRC+ against left-handed pitching ranked inside the top-15 in the majors last year, leaving him as an excellent option to consider Tuesday.

Corey Seager vs. Bryan Mitchell, San Diego Padres
Stadium – Petco Park
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $4,200

Seager is batting just .200 so far this season, but he has been victimized by a .224 BABIP. A lot of that could be because he is not hitting the ball hard, posting a 28% hard-hit rate compared to his career mark of 41.4%. However, with Mitchell’s struggles and lack of an overpowering pitch arsenal, this could be a breakout performance from Seager.

Others to consider: Zack Cozart and Marcus Semien

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/17/18

George Springer vs. Ariel Miranda, Seattle Mariners
Stadium – Safeco Field
FanDuel = $4,400
DraftKings = $4,700

Springer’s bat is starting to heat up, collecting at least two hits in three of his last four games. He hit for excellent power over that stretch as well, slugging three home runs. Like Correa, Springer also excels against left-handed pitching, posting a 165 wRC+ against them in 2017.

Dexter Fowler vs. Tyler Chatwood, Chicago Cubs
Stadium – Wrigley Field
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $3,600

After being limited to just 118 games due to injury last year, Fowler is not off to the kind of fresh start he hoped for with a .183 average. You might be able to take advantage of his reduced price Tuesday though against Chatwood, who allowed a .360 wOBA to left-handers last year. The switch-hitting Fowler is better against righties, finishing with a wOBA of at least .363 against them in both of the last two seasons.

Matt Joyce vs. Miguel Gonzalez, Chicago White Sox
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $2,900
DraftKings = $3,100

Joyce is someone you normally want to target as a cost-effective outfield option against right-handed pitching since he has a .351 wOBA against them in his career. This season has been no different as he has a .362 wOBA versus lefties in his first 17 games. Lefties were able to finish with a .360 wOBA against Gonzalez in 2017, making Joyce an excellent option once again Tuesday.

Others to consider: Charlie Blackmon and Jose Pirela

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/11/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/11/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

There are 15 games in Major League Baseball on Wednesday, but many of them have afternoon starts. As a result, there is plenty of action for both the day and evening slates in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/11/18

James Paxton vs. Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Kauffman Stadium
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $10,400

Injuries limited Paxton to only 136 innings in 2017, but he pitched well when healthy, finishing with a 2.98 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9. He allowed just 0.6 HR/9, which was on par with his career mark of 0.7 HR/9. Although he saw a significant increase in strikeouts, his control didn’t suffer, finishing with a 2.4 BB/9. Tuesday brings an excellent matchup against the Royals, who have scored the fewest runs (29) in the league so far this year. Many of their best hitters are left-handed as well, which is great for Paxton since he allowed a .210 wOBA to lefties last year. If you are playing the day slate, Paxton could be in line for a big performance.

Zack Wheeler vs. Miami Marlins
Stadium – Marlins Park
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $7,500

Once one of the prized young pitchers in the Mets organization, injuries have kept Wheeler from fulfilling his potential. He only pitched 86.1 innings in 2017 but struggled with a 5.21 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. He had significant control issues, allowing 4.2 BB/9. Luck wasn’t exactly on his side either with opponents posting a .332 BABIP. Wheeler will be making his first start of the season for the Mets on Wednesday and faces a Marlins lineup that is a shell of itself from last year. To no surprise, they have struggled this season, batting just .229 with only five total home runs. Wheeler is certainly a risky play, but he has upside at this cheap price and is worth considering in tournament play.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/11/18

Freddie Freeman vs. A.J Cole, Washington Nationals
Stadium – Nationals Park
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $5,200

Freeman had a rough couple of games against Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, but he’ll get a much easier matchup against Cole on Wednesday. Cole had a horrendous first start of the season against these same Braves, allowing 10 earned runs in 3.2 innings. Freeman took Cole deep in that game, finishing 2-for-3 with four RBI and two walks overall. Freeman destroyed righties with a .422 wOBA in 2017, making him an excellent option to consider for your entry.

Willson Contreras vs. Steven Brault, Pittsburgh Pirates
Stadium – Wrigley Field
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $4,300

Contreras already has four multi-hit games this season, leaving him with a .333 average in the early going. He won’t be able to sustain his .448 BABIP, but his 41.4% hard-hit rate is encouraging. He gets a favorable matchup against the left-handed Brault on Wednesday after posting a 137 wRC+ against lefties in 2017.

Others to consider: Albert Pujols (first base) and Wilmer Flores (first base)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/11/18

Ozzie Albies vs. A.J. Cole, Washington Nationals
Stadium – Nationals Park
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $3,800

Albies is not off to the best start this season, batting .250 with no walks and nine strikeouts. He does have just a .250 BABIP, so he should improve in that area as the season progresses. He also had a .354 OBP in 2017, so he’s not going to keep this BB:K ratio up either. Like Freeman, he excelled in his first matchup against Cole this season, finishing 3-for-5 with one double, one RBI and three runs scored. Don’t hesitate to add him to your entry Wednesday.

Asdrubal Cabrera vs. Jarlin Garcia, Miami Marlins
Stadium – Marlins Park
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $3,200

Cabrera came through with a big performance facing left-hander Caleb Smith on Wednesday, hitting a home run off him in the fourth inning. The switch-hitting Cabrera hit a home run against a righty later in the game as well and now has three home runs in his last three games. He had a wOBA of at least .356 against lefties in both of the last two seasons and he’ll get to face another one in Garcia on Wednesday.

Others to consider: Zack Cozart and Scooter Gennett

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/11/18

Travis Shaw vs. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
Stadium – Busch Stadium
FanDuel = $3,800
DraftKings = $3,800

A notoriously fast starter, Shaw is doing it again in 2018, batting .292 with one home run and five doubles. He is also a much better hitter against righties, posting a .373 wOBA against them in 2017 compared to .326 against lefties. Wainwright was once one of the best pitchers in the National League, but he hasn’t been the same since injuring his Achilles and missing most of the 2015 season. In two seasons since, he has posted an ERA of at least 4.62 and a WHIP of at least 1.40 both times. Shaw has a good chance of extending his hot start in this game.

Matt Duffy vs. James Shields, Chicago White Sox
Stadium – Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $2,800
DraftKings = $3,300

The Rays made some significant changes to their roster this winter and appear to be in the middle of another rebuilding process, especially with their lineup. Duffy is usually going to hit in the top-half of their order, giving him appeal in DFS based on the extra at-bats. He’ll face the struggling Shields on Wednesday who clearly doesn’t have overpowering stuff, recording just one strikeout in 11 innings this season.

Others to consider: Kris Bryant and Matt Carpenter

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/11/18

Jean Segura vs. Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
Stadium – Kauffman Stadium
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $3,700

Duffy was shelled in his last start against the White Sox, allowing five runs and three home runs in only four innings. Duffy is dominant against left-handed hitters, holding them to a wOBA of .201 or lower in back-to-back seasons. Righties have fared much better though, posting wOBA’s of .325 and .329 in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Segura hit lefties very well last year with a .353 wOBA, making him a viable option to consider Wednesday.

Andrelton Simmons vs. Matt Moore, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,300
DraftKings = $3,500

Simmons hit his first home run of the season Tuesday and recorded his sixth multi-hit game. Although he’s better known for his stellar defense, he has batted at least .27 8 in both of the last two years. Wednesday brings a matchup against Moore who isn’t much more than a back-of-the-rotation starter at this point in his career. He’s off to a bad start this year too, allowing nine earned runs in just 7 1/3 innings.

Others to consider: Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 4/11/18

Mike Trout vs. Matt Moore, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $5,300
DraftKings = $5,700

Trout is hitting just .245 this season, but his BABIP is an unusually low .229. He’s still hitting for plenty of power with four home runs and three doubles already. Neither handed pitchers usually give Trout problems, so it’s no surprise that he finished with a 147 wRC+ against lefties in 2017. With Moore’s struggles, it might not be a bad idea to pay up to get Trout into your entry.

Justin Upton vs. Matt Moore, Texas Rangers
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington
FanDuel = $3,600
DraftKings = $4,700

Upton has done a great job of driving in runs this season, already recording 10 RBI in 12 games. With Zack Cozart and Trout hitting in front of him, this should be a trend that continues throughout the season. He’s another Angels’ righty who crushes left-handed pitching, posting a 201 wRC+ against them in 2017.

Curtis Granderson vs. Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Oriole Park a Camden Yards
FanDuel = $2,800
DraftKings = $3,400

Granderson provides the Blue Jays with an important left-handed hitter in an outfield that consists of righties Kevin Pillar, Randal Grichuk and Steve Pearce. Granderson isn’t the hitter that he was in his prime, but he still hits right-handers well, posting a wOBA of at least .343 against them in each of the last three seasons. If you are looking for a cheaper outfield option to fill out your lineup, Granderson could provide upside against the inconsistent Gausman.

Others to consider: Yoenis Cespedes and Preston Tucker

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/30/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/30/18

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

The thrill of Opening Day has come and gone, but there is still plenty of excitement for Friday’s slate of MLB games in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/30/18

Max Scherzer vs. Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $11,100
DraftKings = $12,700

The first game of this series was scheduled for Thursday but was pushed back a day due to rain. This leaves a unique opportunity to use one of the elite pitchers in all of baseball on the second day of the season. Scherzer was terrific on his way to winning the Cy Young Award in 2017, finishing with a 2.51 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 12 K/9. He’s one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers in all of baseball, recording a K/9 of at least 10.1 in six straight seasons. The Reds have one of the best hitters in baseball in Joey Votto, but their overall lineup is not overly impressive. Look for Scherzer to start off the season on the right foot with another excellent outing Friday.

Blake Snell vs. Red Sox
Stadium – Tropicana Field
FanDuel = $6,700
DraftKings = $6,800

Snell has had control problems in his brief major league career, but he showed signs of improvement over the second half of the season, walking just 25 batters in 77.1 innings. His numbers improved, as a result, recording a 3.49 ERA and 1.13 WHIP during that stretch. Snell has also been a much better pitcher at home, posting a 3.20 ERA and 9.7 K/9 at Tropicana Field in his career. The Red Sox lineup is no cake walk, but Snell has strikeout upside and might be worth taking a chance on at this cheap price in tournament play.

OFFENSIVE STACKS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/30/18

Chicago Cubs vs. Caleb Smith (Miami Marlins)
Stadium – Marlins Park

The sad state of affairs for the Marlins starting rotation leads Smith to start their second game of the season. He’s pitched only 18.2 innings in the majors during his career, posting a 7.71 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. At 26 years old, Smith is not a hot rising prospect either. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher, recording an 8.5 K/9 during his minor league career. The Cubs already mashed the Marlins for eight runs on Opening Day, so don’t be surprised if they have another offensive explosion Friday.

Players to consider stacking: Kris Bryant, Wilson Contreras, Addison Russell

Houston Astros vs. Doug Fister (Texas Rangers)
Stadium – Globe Life Park in Arlington

Fister has had a fine career, but he’s not much more than a journeyman starter at this point. He appeared in 18 games for the Red Sox last year, finishing with a 4.88 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He had an 8.3 K/9, but don’t expect that to hold up this year as his career K/9 is only 6.2. The Astros have one of the most potent lineups in the league, which could spell disaster for Fister on Friday. Make sure to take advantage for your entry.

Players to consider stacking: Carlos Correa, George Springer, Brian McCann

SPLIT KINGS

This season we’ll dive even deeper into the matchups to provide you with some hitters that have favorable splits each day. All areas that will be considered are splits against certain teams, starting pitchers, home and road games, and success against either right-handed or left-handed pitchers. Outside of the favorable offensive stacks already discussed, these hitters could also help you create a winning lineup.

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 3/30/18

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
FanDuel = $4,400
DraftKings = $4,500

Freeman wasted no time getting off to a hot start this season, going 1-for-2 with a home run, two RBI, three runs and three walks Thursday. Friday brings a matchup against right-handed starter Nick Pivetta, who had a 6.02 ERA and 1.51 WHIP last season. Freeman also mashes right-handed pitching, batting .303 with a .531 slugging percentage against them in his career.

Khris Davis, OF, Oakland Athletics
FanDuel = $3,200
DraftKings = $4,100

Davis also started off the 2018 season in style, going 2-for-5 with a home run and four RBI Thursday. He’s an elite power bat, hitting at least 42 homers in back-to-back seasons. He’s had success against Friday’s starter Tyler Skaggs, posting four hits, one home run, three RBI and one walk in eight career plate appearances against him. Skaggs also gave up 13 home runs in just 85 innings last year, which could be troublesome against Davis.

Zack Cozart, 3B, Los Angeles Angels
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $4,000

Cozart made a good first impression with his new team Thursday, going 3-for-6 with a home run and a double. He is coming off the best season of his career in 2017 when he hit .297, but that was partly inflated by his abnormally high .312 BABIP. He crushed left-handed pitching last season, batting .337 with a .633 slugging percentage. He gets to face Athletics’ lefty Sean Manaea on Friday.

Corey Dickerson, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
FanDuel = $2,600
DraftKings = $4,000

Dickerson had an excellent season in 2017, batting .282 with 27 home runs and 62 RBI as he made his first All-Star team. The Rays moved on from several key pieces of their offense in the offseason, ultimately landing Dickerson with the Pirates. He gets to face Jordan Zimmermann on Friday, who posted an unsightly 6.08 ERA and 1.55 WHIP last season. He’s not a strikeout pitcher either with a career 5.8 K/9. Dickerson hits right-handed pitchers particularly well, with 24 of his 27 home runs coming against them last year.

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Closers

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Closers

One of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball is closers. The traditional closer role is also being reexamined by some teams who may not wait until the ninth inning to bring in their best reliever based on the situation. That could leave you chasing saves more than ever. However, that doesn’t mean you can’t dominate the position in your league. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some closers who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Three

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Closers

Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers

Jansen has been a dominant force at the end of games, converting 168 of 182 save opportunities (92.3%) over the last four seasons. He had a WHIP of 0.86 or lower in five of the last six seasons and has seen his ERA decrease three straight seasons, finishing at a career low 1.32 in 2017. Strikeouts are his specialty with a career K/9 of 14.0. I could go on and on with juicy stats from Jansen, who also posted a career-low 0.9 BB/9 in 2017. He gets the benefit of playing for one of the best teams in baseball, which should leave him with plenty of save chances again this season. You’ll have to take him early in your draft if you want his services, but he is the clear top closer option.

Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox

After posting an uncharacteristic 3.40 ERA in his first season with the Red Sox in 2016, Kimbrel returned to form last year. Not only did he drop his ERA down to 1.43, but his 0.68 WHIP was also the second-lowest mark of his career. In seven career seasons that he has logged at least 50 innings, Kimbrel has finished with an ERA of 1.61 or lower and a WHIP of 0.91 or lower four times. Like Jansen, he too has been a strikeout machine with a career 14.8 K/9. He hasn’t saved at least 40 games in a season since he was a member of the Atlanta Braves in 2014, but he is still one of the elite closers in fantasy baseball.

Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees

Chapman did not have his best year in 2017 and even was removed from the closer’s role for a brief stretch. His overall numbers don’t look great by his standards, finishing with a 3.22 ERA and just 22 saves. However, he still had a respectable WHIP of 1.13 and a 12.3 K/9. The main reason for the spike in his ERA was that he allowed two earned runs each in three-straight appearances in August. Outside of that, he allowed two runs or more in only two other games all season. His low save total can also be attributed to the fact that he missed over a month with a shoulder injury. He righted the ship towards the end of the season and also gave up only one run in eight innings during the playoffs. I expect him to have a bounce-back campaign on a strong Yankees team, leaving him to round out the top three closers in fantasy.

Overvalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Closers

Alex Colome, Tampa Bay Rays

Colome made his first All-Star team in 2016, finishing with a 1.91 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 and 37 saves. He managed to lead baseball with 47 saves in 2017 but took a significant step backward just about everywhere else. Not only did he finish with a 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, but he suffered a huge dropoff in K/9 at only 7.8. His career K/9 is 8.0, so that was actually more of what we should be expecting from him, not his abnormally high strikeout rate from 2016. The Rays are in rebuilding mode for 2018 and have traded away several important players from their 2017 squad. Don’t be surprised if Colome is dealt at some point this season as well, possibly to a team that doesn’t have him close. There are a lot of risks involved with Colome, making it hard for me to justify his current ADP in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) of 125.69.

Hector Neris, Philadelphia Phillies

Neris posted a career-high 26 saves last season, which is significant considering how poorly the Phillies played. He finished with a 3.01 ERA and 10.4 K/9, but his 1.26 WHIP and 3.71 FIP are a bit concerning heading into 2018. The Phillies are an improved team this year, so Neris could have more save opportunities than he saw in 2017. The problem is his current ADP is 143.28, which is significantly higher than Brandon Morrow (179.20) and Kelvin Herrara (199.75), two players who can at least provide similar production in terms of ERA and saves. I’d rather take a chance on one of those two later on.

Undervalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Closers

Sean Doolittle, Washington Nationals

Doolittle started out 2017 as a member of the Oakland Athletics and pitched 21.2 innings for them, posting a 3.38 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, and 13.1 K/9. He only had three saves with Oakland but was traded to the Nationals, who had major bullpen struggles in the first half of the season. Doolittle did a stellar job as their closer, converting 21 of his 22 save opportunities with the team. Although his K/9 dropped to 9.3 with Washingon, his ERA was just 2.40. He’s had some injury issues in his career, but he is going to get a lot of save chances on a good Nationals team if he can stay healthy. With a current ADP of 128.02, he is a bargain considering his upside.

Mark Melancon, San Francisco Giants

Melancon established himself as a premier reliever during his tenure with the Pittsburgh Pirates, posting an ERA of 1.90 or lower in three of his four seasons with the team. He combined to log 98 saves in 2015 and 2016, spending the second half of 2016 with the Nationals. The Giants brought him in last winter to anchor their bullpen, but his season was a disaster. He was limited to only 30 innings due to injury and didn’t pitch well when he was on the mound, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Luck was not on his side as opponents had a .374 BABIP against him last year, significantly higher than his career mark of .281. He had surgery to fix his elbow in September and now that he’s healthy, he will assume the ninth inning duties once again. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher with a career 8.2 K/9, but he could get more save opportunities on an improved Giants squad. His current ADP is 175.64, making him someone to target if you plan to wait on saves.

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

With the offensive outburst that was experienced throughout the league in 2017, quality starting pitchers seem harder to come by this year in fantasy baseball. However, that doesn’t mean you still can’t assemble a quality staff for your squad. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some starting pitchers who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Five

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Kershaw is the elite of the elite when it comes to starting pitchers. Outside of his rookie season in 2008, Kershaw has never finished the season with an ERA above 2.91. His career ERA of 2.36 is off the charts and is in no ways a fluke considering his career FIP is 2.60. He does an excellent job keeping men off base, posting a WHIP of 0.95 or lower in each of the last five seasons. That’s a big reason why he posted a 2.31 ERA last year despite posting a career-high 1.2 HR/9. To top off his stellar numbers, he has a K/9 of at least 10.4 in four straight seasons. Injuries have limited him to 175 innings or fewer in back-to-back seasons, but his numbers are so outstanding when he is on the mound that he is the clear choice for the top starting pitcher in fantasy baseball.

Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals

Scherzer was a very good starting pitcher as a member of the Detroit Tigers, but he’s taken his game to the next level since joining the Nationals. In three seasons in Washington, Scherzer has never had an ERA above 2.96 or a WHIP above 0.97. His batting average against has decreased each year with the Nationals with opponents hitting a mere .178 against him in 2017. He’s also a strikeout machine, posting a K/9 of at least 10.1 in each of the last six seasons, topping out at a career-high 12.0 last year. Throw in the fact that he has logged at least 214.1 innings in five straight seasons and not only is he the second-best starting pitcher in fantasy baseball, but he is well worth a first-round pick.

Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox

Sale had arguably the best season of his career in 2017, finishing 17-8 with a 2.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and an insane 308 strikeouts in 214.1 innings. He is one of the most dominating strikeout pitchers in the game, posting a K/9 of at least 10.8 in three of the last four seasons. If not for a few rough starts in August and September and a stellar finish by Corey Kluber, Sale could have won his first Cy Young Award last year. Like Scherzer, Sale has been very reliable, throwing at least 208.2 innings in four of the last five seasons. The only reason he comes in third on this list behind Scherzer is that he had an ERA of 3.05 or higher in four of five seasons entering 2017. It’s a matter of splitting hairs though, so it could also cost you a first-round pick to get Sale on your team this year depending on the size of your league.

Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians

Kluber closed out 2017 strong, going 11-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in the second half of the season. Overall, he set or tied career highs last year in wins (18), ERA (2.25), WHIP (0.87) and K/9 (11.7) on his way to winning the American League Cy Young Award. His FIP was also 2.50, marking the third time in the last four seasons that he recorded a FIP of 2.97 or lower. With a career K/9 of 9.9, Kluber was able to make big strides in that category last year by posting a swinging strike percentage of 24.2%, significantly higher than his career mark of 20.3%. He may be in for a slight regression in the strikeout department this year, but he is still going to finish with great numbers overall. If you want him on your team, you’ll likely have to spend at least a second-round pick to get him.

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

Strasburg provided fantasy owners with a ton of value last year despite only logging 175.1 innings, finishing 15-4 with a 2.52 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 204 strikeouts. His FIP was just 2.72, marking the fourth straight season he had a FIP of 2.94 or lower. Like the other starters on this list, he is a dominant strikeout pitcher, recording a K/9 of at least 10.1 in each of the last four seasons. There is no doubt that when Strasburg is healthy, he is one of the top pitchers in the league. However, health has been a concern with Strasburg logging at least 200 innings only once in his career. He had actually thrown less than 150 innings in back-to-back seasons entering 2017. That’s the reason he comes in fifth on this list, but he is still worthy of being a fantasy staff ace.

Overvalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

Gerrit Cole, Houston Astros

Cole’s best season was in 2015 as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates when he finished 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 208 innings. However, his numbers have declined in the two years since, finishing last year 12-12 with a 4.26 ERA and 196 strikeouts in 203 innings. His main problem in 2017 was a massive increase in home runs allowed. He only allowed 29 home runs from 2014 through 2016 but gave up 31 in 2017 alone. When you add in the fact that he also issued a career-high 55 walks, you get the big jump in ERA. There is a reason for optimism this year though as his ground ball to flyball ratio was 0.85 last year, which is almost right on pace with his career mark. His home run to flyball percentage jumped all the way up to 11.3%, almost double his previous career high. With some regression to the norm this season, Cole could get his ERA back down under 4.00. The problem is his ADP in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) is 81.79, ahead of players including Masahiro Tanaka (99.84) and Jose Berrios (106.66). Cole appears to be trending upward, but his ADP is too high right now to provide enough value for your squad.

Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays

Stroman is a fine starting pitcher, winning 13 games and posting a 3.09 ERA for the Blue Jays last season. He doesn’t provide much in the way of strikeouts though with a career K/9 of 7.3. Considering he has posted a 1.29 WHIP or higher in back-to-back seasons, that can be a bit of a scary proposition. If you are going to select a starting pitcher who doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters, he needs to help you in both ERA and WHIP, not just ERA. Stroman’s current ADP is 134.78, which is too high considering his limitations.

Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals

Gonzalez had a surprisingly good season in 2017, finishing 15-9 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. It marked the first time he had an ERA under three and a WHIP under 1.20 since 2012. His 8.4 K/9 was on par with his career numbers, but he was somewhat lucky with opposing hitter having a .261 BABIP against him. For his career, that mark is .296. He also had a FIP of 3.93 last year, so some regression in 2018 seems likely. With a current ADP of 153.70, it might be wise to avoid him during your draft.

Undervalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Starting Pitchers

Lance McCullers, Houston Astros

After recording an ERA of 3.22 in both of his first two seasons in the majors, McCullers finished with an ERA of 4.25 in 2017. However, his WHIP (1.30), HR/9 (0.6) and FIP (3.10) indicate he was a bit unlucky last year in terms of his ERA. He posted an excellent 10.0 K/9, which was actually down from 11.8 in 2016. Considering his ERA should improve this season, he records a lot of strikeouts and he should get a lot of opportunities for wins on a great team, McCullers ADP of 145.15 is a bargain. He’ll have a better K/9 than Cole and could finish with a similar ERA and WHIP, so I’d much rather take him several rounds later.

Jacob Faria, Tampa Bay Rays

Faria faired well in his first taste of the big leagues last year, posting a 3.43 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 8.7 K/9. In his 24 career starts at Triple-A, Faria posted similar numbers with a 3.42 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, but his K/9 was significantly higher at 10.5. He had a 10.7 K/9 in 27 career starts at Double-A as well, so he could see an uptick in that department this season. Faria is just 24 years old heading into 2018 and is already an important part of the Rays rotation. His current ADP is just 233.29, which is far too low considering his upside. Don’t be surprised if his numbers are better than Stroman’s at the end of the season.

Tyler Chatwood, Chicago Cubs

Chatwood did not have a good season for the Colorado Rockies last year, finishing 8-15 with a 4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.3 K/9. He was destroyed when he pitched in Coors Field, posting a 6.01 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 70.1 innings. He was a much better pitcher on the road though with a 3.49 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 77.1 innings. The move to the Cubs should do wonders for his value since his career ERA at Coors was an unsightly 5.17. With an ADP 269.64, he’s someone to consider targeting late in your drafts to add depth to your rotation, just don’t count on him for a lot of strikeouts.

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner – @rotomikebarner*

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

The Outfield position has a lot of high-end talent this year with five players at the position arguably ranked inside the top ten for fantasy baseball. Let’s not only take a look at the cream of the crop but also at some outfielders who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2018.

The Top Five

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

Entering 2017, Trout had played in at least 157 games in four straight seasons. He averaged 33 home runs, 100 RBI, 113 runs scored and 23 steals per season during that stretch. Not only that, but he batted at least .299 three times. He was limited to just 114 games last year due to injury, but he still batted .306 with 33 home runs, 72 RBI, 92 runs scored and 22 steals. Those are crazy counting stats in such a limited time frame. He’s only getting better with his pitch selection, lowering his strikeout percentage while also increasing his walk percentage in four straight seasons. He’s not just the best outfielder in fantasy baseball either as I rank him number one overall.

Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies

Blackmon had a monster season in 2017, batting .331 with 37 home runs, 104 RBI, 137 runs scored, 14 steals and a .399 OBP. He led the majors in hits, runs scored, triples and total bases and was second in batting average only to Jose Altuve. To put his season into perspective, only four players had a higher slugging percentage last year than Blackmon. They were J.D. Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge. He did have extreme home and road splits, batting .391 with 24 home runs at Coors Field compared to .276 with 13 homers on the road. It’s going to be tough for him to so many home runs again this year, but he did have 29 homers and 82 RBI in 2016. His ability to hit for power, a high average and steal bases makes him one of the most valuable options in fantasy baseball.

Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox

Betts established himself as an elite fantasy asset in 2016, hitting .318 with 31 home runs, 113 RBI, 122 runs scored and 26 steals. His counting stats were again stellar in 2017, but his batting average dropped to just .264. He had never batted below .291 in a season in the majors, leaving his owners who paid a lofty price for him on draft day somewhat disappointed with his overall production. However, his strikeout percentage, groundball to fly ball ratio and line drive percentage were all almost right on par with his career averages. The big difference is he had only a .268 BABIP last year after never finishing with one below .310 in his career. With a higher BABIP likely on tap for 2018, expect Betts to rebound with his batting average. The addition of Martinez also adds a power dimension that the Red Sox lineup was sorely lacking last year, which should help Betts as well. Get ready for a big season.

Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals

Of all the outfielders not named Mike Trout, Harper might have the highest upside. He showed his immense potential in 2015, batting .330 with 42 home runs, 99 RBI and 118 runs scored on his way to winning the National League MVP. The reason why Harper is fourth on this list though is due to injuries and inconsistencies throughout his career. He has only played at least 147 games twice in his career, one of which was that stellar 2015 campaign. He has also batted above .300 only twice in six seasons. It can be frustrating to own him, but you shouldn’t be disappointed if he ends up being your first round pick. If everything falls right, he could end up finishing in the top three overall in fantasy.

Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees

As a testament to how deep the outfield position is, a guy who had 59 home runs and 132 RBI last season if fifth on this list. Stanton was unlike many of the games elite home run hitters too, managing to hit .281 and record a career-low 23.6% strikeout percentage. Injuries have been a concern for Stanton as well, limiting him to 123 games or less in four of the last six years. He mashes when he’s on the field though. The 2015 season might be the perfect example as he hit 27 home runs in just 74 games. Not only does he move to homer-friendly Yankee Stadium, but he’ll also be part of one of the most potent lineups in the league. If he can stay healthy, the sky is the limit. That’s a big if though, which is why he’s fifth on this list.

Overvalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds

There is no question that Hamilton is one of the premier base stealers in the league, recording at least 56 steals in four straight seasons. The problem is, that’s about all he does well. For his career, he is only batting .248 with a paltry .298 OBP. He’s never scored more than 85 runs in a season and has 17 career home runs. While steals are hard to find, it’s important to remember that it’s only one category. He’ll drag you down just about everywhere else, making it very hard to justify his current ADP in the NFBC of 61.85.

Andrew McCutchen, San Francisco Giants

McCutchen will be playing for someone other than the Pirates for the first time in his career and will be a key part of what the Giants hope is a vastly improved lineup. McCutchen was once an elite fantasy option, hitting at least 20 home runs and stealing at least 20 bases each season from 2011 through 2013. His power numbers are still there, hitting at least 23 homers in four straight years. He’s not the threat that he once was on the basepaths though, stealing a total of 28 bases in the last three seasons. The problem is if he’s not going to steal bases and isn’t a .300 hitter anymore, the ability to hit 25 home runs isn’t nearly as valuable as it used to be. His current ADP is 87.06, ahead of players who could provide similar production like Ryan Braun (113.24) and Adam Jones (146.55). Make sure you don’t overpay for McCutchen.

Ender Inciarte, Atlanta Braves

Inciarte played in a career-high 157 games last year, making his first All-Star team. He’s always hit for a high average, batting .295 for his career.  With at least 21 steals in two of the last three seasons, he can certainly provide value on the basepaths. However, he doesn’t hit for a lot of power, recording just 11 home runs last season. He had never hit more than six home runs in a year entering 2017. He also doesn’t drive in many runs, finishing with just 57 RBI last year. His current ADP of 120.21 seems awfully high for a player of his skillset. Adam Eaton is a reasonable comp in my eyes and his ADP is only 152.76. Buyer beware of Inciarte at his current price.

 

Undervalued Players

2018 MLB Fantasy Baseball Season Preview: Outfield

Brett Gardner, New York Yankees

The Yankees lineup is loaded. They have premier hitters in Stanton, Judge, and Gary Sanchez and have excellent depth when you add in the likes of Greg Bird and Didi Gregorius. Gardner is expected to be the Yankees leadoff hitter again this season, which should leave him with a ton of opportunities to score runs. He has scored at least 90 runs three times in his career, but has the potential to score at least 100 runs for the first time this year. He also brings a nice combination of speed and power, hitting at least 16 home runs and stealing at least 20 bases in three of the last four years. Although it’s not flashy, he has a valuable .264 career batting average as well. His current ADP is 180.67, leaving him with plenty of value on draft day.

Stephen Piscotty, Oakland Athletics

Piscotty was a trendy pick to be a breakout player last year after batting .273 with 22 home runs, 85 RBI and 86 runs scored in 2016. He was a major disappointment though, batting just .235 with nine home runs and 39 RBI in 107 games. He gets a fresh start as a member of the Athletics and shouldn’t be someone you sleep on this season. Batting average was never an area of concern for him in the minors, hitting .287 over 405 games. He’s still just 27 years old and will be part of an Athletics lineup that has a lot of power. His current ADP is 292.2, which is a steal considering his upside.

Mallex Smith, Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are rebuilding, trading away some key players this offseason. They especially have holes to fill in their outfield after trading both Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza Jr. Their outfield was projected to be Smith, Kevin Kiermaier and Denard Span after those moves, but then they signed Carlos Gomez. Gomez is the only right-handed hitter in the bunch, so he could end up with plenty of at-bats. Smith could work his way into regular playing time still, which would give him a chance to showcase his speed. He played just 81 games last year, but still stole 16 bases. He batted .270 as well, which helps considering he provides no power. His value is mostly limited to stolen bases, but he could steal somewhere between 30 and 40 bases under the right circumstances. With a current ADP of 351.12, Smith could be a very cheap source of steals. I’d much rather get him towards the end of a draft than spend a high pick on Hamilton.

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks for August 22, 2017

by Austyn Varney 0 Comments

*Austyn Varney*

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks – Tuesday, August 22, 2017

*STARTING PITCHERS*

Chris Archer - Tampa Bay Rays - MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks

Chris Archer Vs Toronto Blue Jays
Park – Tropicana Field
Opp implied total – 3.51

We finally have a nice slate with some strong pitching options. While we don’t have a bunch of aces in good match-ups, we have a pretty healthy spread of options at different price points. Chris Archer is the highest of all and comes in as the top option. He’s at home, facing off with the lowly Blue Jays. On the road, the Blue Jays have ranked 19th with a .311 wOBA and 22% strikeout rate. The upside is there with K’s and this lineup is nowhere near as lethal as it was in previous years. Once you get past the gauntlet (Donaldson, Smoak, Bautista), it’s smooth sailing. The lineup turns into a pile of garbage that can K as much as anyone. Chris Archer is also one of the best pitchers in the game, if that matters. He strikes out over 10 batters per 9 and has posted a .291 combined wOBA on the season. He can easily hit double-digit K’s tonight and have one of his best outings. This is Chris Archer, however, so he can also walk 2 guys and give up a bomb. While there will always be an inherent risk with Archer, I’m willing to play him in both cash games and tournaments.

Lance Lynn Vs San Diego Padres
Park – Busch Stadium
Vegas O/U – 3.51

I’m not one to target Lance Lynn very often. In fact, I don’t think I’ve played him since 2016. That’s also a mistake on my part, as I’ve missed some very solid games in situations similar to this one. Lynn isn’t too tough to figure out. He dominates righties and gets dominated by lefties. When looking to target Lynn, you want to see how many righties are in the opposing lineup. ThePadres have one of the heaviest righty lineups in the game and may end up being forced with 5 of them. Oh yea, the righties they have also stink. Lynn has held a .256 wOBA against righties and strikes out nearly 8 batters per 9. Lynn is very safe here and his price is fair. He makes sense in all formats and will help you pay up for a few bats, which is something that definitely matters on a slate like this. Lynn is also an excellent SP2 with Archer on DK.

*OFFENSIVE STACKS*

Anthony Rizzo - MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Stacks - Chicago Cubs - Lineuplab

Chicago Cubs @ Homer Bailey (Reds)
Park – Great American Ballpark
Implied Total – 5.58

The Cubs are facing Homer Bailey. We know the drill. This same game happened about a week ago and we saw one of the highest scoring games of the year so far with 23 combined runs. While that is very unlikely to happen again, it was very clear that Homer Bailey doesn’t have much left. He’s getting the ball plastered almost every at-bat and will soon be yanked from the rotation. If the Reds don’t do it, one of these rocket ships is going to end up hitting him and doing the deed for them. He’s allowed a .421 wOBA and 5.44 xFIP, all the while striking out just 6 batters per 9. Homer Bailey isn’t as bad as some of the White Sox pitchers, but he isn’t good either. He’s going to get walloped by the Cubbies and I want to be all over it. Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant are musts if you’re stacking the Cubs. DOn’t get cute. Further along, you can look any which way. In cash games, wait for the lineup to come out and make some fiscally responsible decisions. In tournaments, take a shot on a guy in the 6 or 7 hole who may not garner much ownership.
Main Stack – Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist
Sneaky Stack – Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras/Alex Avila

Baltimore Orioles Vs Paul Blackburn (Athletics)
Park – Camden Yards
Implied Total – 5.85

If you were on the Orioles yesterday, I see no reason to get off of them now. They are facing an even worse pitcher in the same ballpark, with lower implied ownership. They hold and 5.85 implied run total and do come in as one of the highest projecting offenses. Looking a bit deeper at Paul Blackburn, he is far from a standout. He allowed a 4.36 xFIP in AAA and hasn’t shown anything more yet. He’s been better against lefties, but don’t let the .260 BABIP fool you. Camden Yards is going to be rough for this guy and the Orioles will do damage. Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop will always be the top 2 options, with Adam Jones and Chris Davis to follow. You also have guys like Trey Mancini, Mark Trumbo, and Welington Castillo, so have fun in tournaments.

Main Stack – Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Chris Davis
Sneaky Stack – Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini, Welington Castillo