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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 10 – Running Backs

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

Only a few of the top running backs won’t be available for the main Sunday slate in DFS for Week 10, leaving plenty of great options to choose from across the price scale. Let’s dig into the position to see where you can gain the edge for your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 10 - Running Backs

Todd Gurley vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $10,800
DraftKings = $9,400

The Rams were caught in a shootout with the Saints in Week 9, which finally led to a subpar game from Gurley. He averaged 5.2 yards-per-carry, but he only finished with 68 yards on 13 attempts. The Saints held him in check in the passing game, as well, with Gurley finishing with six catches on seven targets for 11 yards. Even though Gurley managed to record a rushing touchdown, he had just one touchdown for the second straight week.

If you paid up to get Gurley in your entry last week, you were left disappointed, but don’t let that cloud your judgment moving forward. This is a much better matchup against a far inferior Seahawks offense, which should lead to more rushing attempts for Gurley. The Seahawks are also allowing an average of 4.8 yards-per-carry, which is tied for the fourth-most in the league. When these two teams met earlier this season, Gurley finished with 113 total yards and three touchdowns.

Kareem Hunt vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $9,000
DraftKings = $8,500

The Chiefs had another great offensive performance against the Browns in Week 9 and Hunt was right in the thick of the action. He had 17 carries for 90 yards, and although he only received two targets, he caught one of them for a 50-yard touchdown. Add in his two rushing touchdowns and it was his third multi-touchdown game of the season. A feat even more impressive than that is that he has at least one touchdown in eight straight contests.

With the ease at which the Chiefs move the ball, Hunt is going to get plenty of opportunities for touchdowns. This is another stellar matchup for him against the Cardinals, who have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (143.1). Their 12 rushing touchdowns allowed is also tied for the second-most, so don’t hesitate to pay up for Hunt.

Melvin Gordon vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,900
DraftKings = $9,000

A bye week came at just the right time for the Chargers. Gordon missed Week 7 with a hamstring injury, but a bye in Week 8 helped him to miss only that one game. He certainly didn’t look hampered at all against the Seahawks on Sunday, turning 16 carries into 113 yards and a touchdown. That marked the third time in his last four games that Gordon finished with at least 6.9 yards-per-carry.

Week 10 brings a matchup against the Raiders, who looked like a trainwreck against the 49ers last week. In their first meeting this season, Gordon had 120 total yards and a touchdown against the Raiders. With the Raiders allowing the most rushing yards per game (144.5), expect Gordon to have another strong performance in their rematch.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 10 - Running Backs

Tevin Coleman vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $5,400

Coleman’s performance against the Redskins in Week 9 was impressive. They’ve had one of the better run defenses in the league this year, but Coleman still finished with 88 rushing yards on just 13 carries. He did plenty of damage in the passing game, as well, hauling in five of seven targets for 68 yards and two touchdowns. Those are the only two receiving touchdowns the Redskins have allowed to running backs all season.

Coleman is still sharing the backfield duties with Ito Smith, but Coleman has been on the field for exactly 57 percent of the Falcons offensive plays in each of their last three games. Smith wasn’t on the field more than 46 percent of the time in any of those contests. The Browns have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game (138.9) and the most rushing touchdowns (14), leaving Coleman with excellent upside.

David Johnson vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,900
DraftKings = $6,800

If you play in season-long fantasy football, Johnson is right up there with some of the biggest disappointments in the league. The Cardinals finally moved on from offensive coordinator Mike McCoy before Week 8, which really can only help Johnson at this point. His first game with Byron Leftwich as offensive coordinator wasn’t exactly off the charts, but he finished with 100 total yards against the 49ers, marking just the second time this season he has recorded at least 100 total yards in a game.

The Cardinals had a bye last week, which should be helpful as they adopt Leftwich’s new offense. He’s already stated his desire to get Johnson more involved, at least bringing him back onto the radar in DFS. This is certainly a favorable matchup for Johnson to exploit with the Chiefs allowing a league-high 5.2 yards-per-carry. There is risk involved here, but Johnson could be someone to consider for your entry.

Duke Johnson Jr. vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $5,600
DraftKings = $4,700

One of the more perplexing things we’ve seen this season is the Browns usage of Johnson. After finishing with 74 catches on 93 targets last year, Johnson only had 20 receptions on 29 targets through their first eight games. The Browns decided to clean house by firing their head coach and offensive coordinator last week, which immediately provided positive results for Johnson. With the Browns trying to keep up with the Chiefs, Johnson caught all nine of his targets for 78 yards and two touchdowns.

It was about time the Browns got Johnson more involved. They aren’t exactly deep at wide receiver, so it would seem to remain in their best interest to keep throwing passes Johnson’s way. If he can get similar usage in Week 10, he could once again have a big stat line considering the Falcons have allowed a league-high 68 receptions to opposing running backs. At this cheap price. Johnson could be well worth the risk in tournament play.

Jalen Richard vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $5,400
DraftKings = $4,800

Few losses this season have been as embarrassing as the one the Raiders suffered at the hands of the 49ers in Week 9. With Nick Mullens making his first career start, they managed to blow out the Raiders, 34-3. Richard only had two carries in that contest, but running the ball is not his forte. He did catch all four of his targets for 45 yards, marking his fourth-straight game with at least four targets.

After the Raiders dealt Amari Cooper to the Cowboys and lost Marshawn Lynch to injury, their offense doesn’t have a ton of talented playmakers left. Their defense has played poorly as well, which should leave with some early deficits to try and make up. In those situations, Richard should be heavily involved in catching passes out of the backfield. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers race out to an early lead, setting things up nicely for Richard to provide value.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 10 - Running Backs

Leonard Fournette vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $7,000
DraftKings = $6,300

Fournette injured his hamstring in the first game of the season against the Giants, which forced him to miss the subsequent two games. He tried to return in Week 4, but couldn’t make it through that contest and hasn’t played since. After having a bye in Week 9, everything is pointing towards Fournette taking the field against the Colts. Although he can be a major asset when healthy, it might be best to make sure he can make it through an entire game before you start playing him in DFS again.

Adrian Peterson vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $5,700

Peterson’s success with the Redskins has been surprising. After looking ineffective with the Saints and Cardinals last year, Peterson has already rushed for at least 96 yards in a game five times this season. However, his prognosis going forward looks extremely bleak with the Redskins offensive line decimated by injuries. Not only have they lost guards Brandon Schreff (pectoral) and Shawn Lauvao (knee) for the season, but tackle Trent Williams (thumb) is also a couple of weeks away from returning. With a bunch of backups blocking for him, Peterson isn’t very appealing at this price.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 8 – Running Backs

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

Even though four teams will be on a bye for Week 8, there are still plenty of great running backs available in DFS. Let’s dig into the position to see where you can gain the edge for your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 8 - Running Backs

Todd Gurley vs. Green Bay Packers
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $11,000
DraftKings = $9,800

Gurley is as automatic as they come. His performance in Week 7 was a prime example of just how high his floor is. He didn’t rack up a ton of yards on the ground with 15 carries for 63 yards. His receiving yards weren’t stellar, either, catching four of five targets for 23 yards. However, he had two rushing touchdowns and one receiving score. With the Rams loaded on offense, Gurley has already been able to cash in with 14 total touchdowns.

The Rams destroyed the 49ers 39-10 last week, so it didn’t really make much sense to run Gurley into the ground during a blowout. This game figures to be more competitive against a Packers team that has far more firepower on offense. The Packers defense hasn’t been very good at stopping the run, leaving them tied for the 10th-highest yards-per-carry allowed (4.5) in the league. Gurley is crazy expensive, but he’s someone to build your lineup around in cash contests.

Kareem Hunt vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $8,100
DraftKings = $7,100

Things were looking scary for Hunt over the first three games this season, rushing a total of 52 times for 168 yards, which equated to 3.2 yards-per-carry. He wasn’t really involved in the passing attack, either, with one reception and three total targets during that stretch. The good news is that his struggles were shortlived. After destroying the Bengals for 141 total yards and three touchdowns in Week 7, Hunt now has 595 total yards and six touchdowns across his last four contests.

The Chiefs have arguably the most explosive offense in the league, which is going to leave Hunt with plenty of opportunities to find the end zone. His nine total touchdowns this year puts him only three scores away from passing hit total from all of last season. This has the makings of another monster performance for Hunt since the Broncos have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (148.1) to go along with eight rushing touchdowns allowed.

James Conner vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – Heinz Field
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $7,500

Conner comes into this game with fresh legs after the Steelers had a bye in Week 7. He was hot heading into the bye, rushing for 221 yards and four touchdowns across his previous two games. He also chipped in eight receptions for 93 yards. There were some rumors about Le’Veon Bell possibly reporting to the team during their bye week, but as of Wednesday, there was still no sign of his return. That should leave Conner as their starting running back for at least one more week.

This will mark Conner’s second start of the year against the Browns. He demolished them in Week 1, rushing 31 times for 135 yards and two touchdowns while also catching five of six targets for an additional 57 yards. While those numbers might be hard to duplicate, the Browns have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (134.7) and the second-most rushing touchdowns (10). Don’t hesitate to add Conner to your entry.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 8 - Running Backs

Kerryon Johnson vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – Ford Field
FanDuel = $6,900
DraftKings = $5,300

Johnson’s usage has been frustrating. In three of the first four games, he received nine or fewer carries. The only time he had more was in Week 3 when he cashed in 16 rushing attempts for 101 yards.  The Lions have finally started to lean on him a little more over their last two games, resulting in Johnson finishing with at least 12 carries and 70 yards in both contests. It will be hard for them to justify lessening his workload Sunday considering he posted 158 yards on 19 carries last week against the Dolphins.

Another downside when it comes to Johnson is that he’s not very involved in the passing game, receiving more than three targets in only one game so far. He also has to deal with LeGarrette Blount stealing some of the goalline work. The Seahawks defense has been very good against the pass, but they’ve allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game (120.7). Johnson is certainly not a safe option, but this matchup leaves him with upside.

Marlon Mack vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $6,700
DraftKings = $5,400

The Colts sure missed Mack at the beginning of this season. Injuries have limited him to just three games, but he’s healthy now and running away with the starting job in their backfield. He’s coming off of his best performance in what was a blowout win over the Bills in Week 7 when he had 126 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries.

The Colts racing out to a big lead helped Mack in terms of the game flow last week. There is a chance this game could play out in a similar fashion with the Raiders losing two key parts of their offense in Amari Cooper and Marshawn Lynch. Nyheim Hines limits Mack’s involvement in the passing game, but with the Raiders allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game (131.8), Mack is worth considering for your entry.

Phillip Lindsay vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,200

The Broncos offense hasn’t been good, but that didn’t stop them from hanging 45 points on the Cardinals last week. Lindsay didn’t blow the roof off in that game, but he had a strong performance by turning 14 carries into 90 yards and a touchdown. Although he has to split carries with Royce Freeman, Lindsay has still provided value in large part because he is averaging 5.8 yards-per-carry. Freeman, on the other hand, is averaging 4.4 yards-per-carry.

Freeman injured his ankle last week and his status is still up in the air for Sunday. If he is unable to play, Lindsay is likely to see a significant increase in volume. That could lead to a stellar stat line with the Chiefs allowing the third-most yards-per-carry (5.2). In their first meeting this season, Lindsay had 12 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown.

Raheem Mostert vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $5,600
DraftKings = $3,800

The 49ers backfield looked so promising heading into this season after they signed Jerick McKinnon. However, he tore his ACL before playing in a regular season game, leaving Matt Breida and Alfred Morris to lead the position. Breida has played well, but he’s been battling injuries of late. Morris has been largely ineffective with just 3.6 yards-per-carry, which has opened up an opportunity for Mostert. He’s made the most of his chance, so far, with 146 yards on 19 carries across their last two games.

Breida re-aggravated his ankle injury in Week 7, resulting in him leaving the game early with just five carries. His status is still uncertain for Week 8, but it might be prudent for the 49ers to rest him since this is an injury he’s dealt with before. If Breida doesn’t play, Mostert could receive the bulk of the carries. At this cheap price, he’d make for an excellent play against a Cardinals team that has allowed the most rushing yards per game (148.3) and the most rushing touchdowns (12).

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 8 - Running Backs

Alex Collins vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium – Bank of America Stadium
FanDuel = $6,100
DraftKings = $4,600

Collins looked primed for a big campaign this year after grabbing hold of the Ravens starting running back job last year. He didn’t take over as the regular starter until Week 6 last season, but he finished with an average of 4.6 yards-per-carry. While efficiency was his strong suit, the opposite has been the case for him this year with just 3.6 yards-per-carry. Javorius Allen is their preferred option when they get close to the end zone, which significantly limits Collins’ upside. This is not a great matchup with the Panthers allowing the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game (95) so it might be best to avoid Collins.

Isaiah Crowell vs. Chicago Bears
Stadium – Soldier Field
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $3,700

Crowell has had two big games this season. His first was in Week 1 when he turned 10 carries into 102 yards and two touchdowns. The other was a 15-carry, 219-yard, one touchdown performance in Week 5 against the Broncos. However, he has a total of 138 rushing yards over his other five games. The Bears have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (87.5) and have still not given up a score on the ground, making Crowell way too risky of an option in Week 8.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 7 – Running Backs

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

The running back position isn’t very deep for Week 7 because not only are four teams on a bye, but Saquon Barkley, David Johnson, and Kareem Hunt also won’t be available for the main Sunday afternoon slate in DFS because they play in primetime games. Let’s dig into the position to see where you can gain the edge for your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 7 - Running Backs

Todd Gurley vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
FanDuel = $10,200
DraftKings = $9,800

Gurley dominated the Broncos last week, rushing 28 times for 208 yards and two touchdowns. After posting 13 rushing touchdowns in 2017, he already has nine through the first six weeks. He’s also been heavily involved in the passing game, receiving at least five targets in five of six games and posting two receiving scores.

It’s pick-your-poison when it comes to trying to defend against the Rams. Quarterback Jared Goff has shown significant improvement and they have a trio of excellent wide receivers, although Cooper Kupp likely won’t play in Week 7 due to a knee injury. Gurley is often put in great positions to score touchdowns and has one of the highest floors at any position in DFS, as a result. Don’t expect the 49ers to be able to slow him down.

Ezekiel Elliott vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $8,100

The Cowboys pulled off a surprising 40-7 drubbing of the Jaguars on Sunday. Elliott played a key role in their victory, rushing 24 times for 106 yards and a touchdown. That marked the third time in the last four weeks that Elliot has rushed for at least 100 yards. He also converted his only target into an 11-yard score.

Outside of Week 6, the Cowboys offense hasn’t been very good this season. Elliott has been limited to four total touchdowns, as a result, but he’s been heavily involved with 117 carries and 23 receptions on 30 targets. His involvement in the passing game has provided a significant boost to his value after he had just 26 receptions on 38 targets across 10 games last year. The Redskins defense isn’t exactly a favorable matchup, but Elliott gets enough volume in the offense to still be worth considering in cash tournaments.

Christian McCaffrey vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $7,700

The Redskins stymied McCaffrey last week, holding him to 20 yards on eight carries. The Panthers were playing catchup after being down 14-0 after the first quarter, which was a big reason why McCaffrey had so few carries. Luckily, he’s a significant part of their passing game and finished the contest with seven catches on eight targets for 46 yards.

It was encouraging to see McCaffrey get so many targets even with tight end Greg Olsen returning from injury. Although McCaffrey did have an outlier performance where he rushed for 184 yards on 28 carries in Week 3, the majority of his value comes from his pass-catching abilities. The Eagles have been stout against the run, but they are tied for the fourth-most receptions allowed to opposing running backs (41).

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 7 - Running Backs

Tarik Cohen vs. New England Patriots
Stadium – Soldier Field
FanDuel = $6,600
DraftKings = $5,100

Cohen got off to a quiet start this year but had his breakout game Week 4 when he not only rushed for 53 yards on 13 carries, but he also caught seven of eight targets for 121 yards and a touchdown. His speed and ability to catch passes out of the backfield makes him a tough cover for opposing defenses. The Bears had a bye for Week 5, but Cohen was productive again last week against the Dolphins, catching seven of nine targets for 90 yards and another touchdown.

Cohen does have to split backfield duties with Jordan Howard, but Howard has seen his percentage of snaps decrease each of the last three games, bottoming out at 51% in Week 6 compared to 49% for Cohen. If the Bears defense has trouble slowing down the Patriots, Cohen would likely be more involved in a high-scoring game as he’s a far superior pass catcher. He’s a bit risky, but there is plenty of upside here if the game flow falls in his favor.

Carlos Hyde vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $4,700

The Browns had their doors blown off by the Chargers last week as they were down 21-6 at the half and ultimately lost 38-14. As a result of the early lopsided score, Hyde finished with a season-low 14 carries for 34 yards. He also failed to receive a target for the first time this season, although he’s never logged more than three targets in any contest this season.

Maybe the most concerning part of Hyde’s poor performance was that he averaged just 2.4 yards-per-carry. That marked the third game this season where he has averaged less than three yards-per-carry. On the plus side, he has already scored five touchdowns. The Bucs haven’t given up a ton of rushing yards, but opposing offenses have only rushed the ball against them 112 times, fourth-fewest attempts in the NFL. They give up a lot of yards through the air, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Hyde at least finds himself in a favorable position to reach the end zone in this contest.

Kenyan Drake vs. Detroit Lions
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $4,900

Drake is involved in a frustrating timeshare for fantasy purposes with the ageless Frank Gore. Drake hasn’t logged more than 14 carries in any game this season, as a result. His best performance came in Week 5, but that was mostly attributed to his seven catches on 11 targets for 69 yards and a touchdown. The passing game is one area that he has been able to separate himself from Gore, receiving 31 targets compared to Gore’s five.

Don’t expect things to shift any in terms of his workload this week, but that doesn’t mean Drake can’t provide value. The Lions have allowed three running backs to rush for over 100 yards in a game this season and have allowed the third-most rushing yard per game (145.8), overall. His upside isn’t off the charts due to Gore’s presence, but Drake is still someone to consider in tournament play.

Peyton Barber vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $6,100
DraftKings = $3,800

The Bucs running game has been horrendous. Entering Week 6, Barber had rushed for 33 yards or fewer in three straight games and rookie Ronald Jones is still very much a work in progress. Barber finally showed signs of life in Jameis Winston’s return as the starting quarterback Sunday, rushing 13 times for 82 yards and catching all four of his targets for an additional 24 yards.

Barber still has a long way to go before you can feel very comfortable rolling with him in your lineup. However, it was encouraging to see him get 13 carries coming out of the bye week compared to only one for Jones. Barber appears to have a hold on the lead back job, for the time being, and gets a favorable matchup Week 7 against a Browns team that is tied for the sixth-most yards-per-carry allowed (4.7) and has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game (1382.).

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 7 - Running Backs

Mark Ingram vs. Baltimore Ravens
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $5,900

Alvin Kamara was a man possessed during Ingram’s four-game suspension. That didn’t matter for Ingram’s first game back, though, as he received 16 carries compared to just six for Kamara. Kamara was only on the field for 47% of the team’s offensive plays after being on the field for at least 71% of them in each of the previous four weeks. Some of that had to do with the Saints getting up big in that game, while some of it also might have been the Saints seeing an opportunity to give Kamara a little rest. Expect him to be much more involved Sunday. This isn’t a great matchup for the Saints’ running backs, either, with the Ravens allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game (82.8).

Alex Collins vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – M&T Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $4,800

After averaging 4.6 yards-per-carry during his breakout campaign last year, Collins is only averaging 3.6 yards-per-carry this season. He did come away with two touchdowns last week, but Javorius Allen has been their preferred goal-line back. Allen has also been on the field for 47% of the team’s offensive plays this season compared to 43% for Collins. The Saints have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (71.4), leaving Collins with very little upside.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 – Running Backs

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

Running back isn’t especially deep for Week 6. The Saints are on a bye, meaning Alvin Kamara won’t be an option. The Lions are on a bye as well, which is a bad thing because they are a team you normally want to play opposing running backs against. Injuries continue to be a problem at the position, too, with Leonard Fournette expected to be out again due to his hamstring injury and Dalvin Cook still battling a hamstring issue of his own. Let’s dig into the position to see where you can gain the edge in DFS. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 - Running Backs

Todd Gurley vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $9,500
DraftKings = $10,000

Gurley didn’t exactly run wild Sunday against the Seahawks, rushing 22 times for 77 yards. His 3.5 yards-per-carry was his second-lowest mark of the season. However, he still had a monster performance with three rushing touchdowns. He also chipped in four catches on five targets for 36 yards, helping the Rams win a big game on the road against the Seahawks.

There is little doubt that Gurley is the top option at running back for Week 6. Not only does he get a ton of carries, but he’s received at least five targets in four of five games this year. He has one of the highest touchdown upsides in the league considering the Rams explosive offense. The Broncos were torched by Isaiah Crowell for 219 yards in Week 5 and have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (139.6) in the league.

Melvin Gordon vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $8,800
DraftKings = $8,200

If you want reliable, Gordon is your man. His overall rushing yardage totals haven’t been off the charts, but he is averaging a career-high 4.6 yards-per-carry. He’s also scored a rushing touchdown in three of his last four games. However, maybe the biggest reason that Gordon has been a consistent source of fantasy points this year is because of his increased involvement in the passing game. After finishing 2017 with 58 receptions on 83 targets for 476 yards. Gordon already has 28 catches on 38 targets for 261 yards.

The Chargers do have an explosive backup to Gordon in Austin Ekler, but Gordon is clearly going to get plenty of work. The Browns have had their issues stopping opposing running backs, allowing 116.6 rushing yards per game and 28 receptions for 284 yards to opposing running backs. Gordon’s floor might not be as high as Gurley’s, but he’s a great option for your entry.

Christian McCaffrey vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $8,400
DraftKings = $8,300

The Panthers enjoyed a bye for Week 4, leaving McCaffrey and company with plenty of rest heading into a home matchup against the Giants. McCaffrey had rushed 28 times for 184 yards Week 3 against the Bengals, a feat that was going to be very difficult for him to match. He didn’t come close to that kind of production, rushing 17 times for 58 yards. His 3.4 yards-per-carry was his lowest mark of the season, although the 17 carries were his second-most attempts.

The good part about McCaffrey is that he doesn’t need to have a lot of success carrying the ball to provide value. He caught five of six targets for 35 yards and a touchdown in that game, which was his first score of the season. Despite having a bye week, McCaffrey’s 32 targets are tied for sixth-most among running backs. The Redskins have only allowed 92.5 rushing yards per game, which is in large part because opponents have the fourth-fewest rushing attempts against them (92). The Panthers rely heavily on the run and with McCaffrey’s immense upside in the passing game, he’s still one of the best running backs available for Week 6.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 - Running Backs

Joe Mixon vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $7,500

Mixon returned in Week 5 from a two-week absence due to a knee injury. It was just in time for the Bengals, who have since lost his backup Giovani Bernard to a sprained MCL. With the lack of quality depth behind him, Mixon wasted no time in his return, rushing the ball 22 times for 93 yards. In the three games that Mixon has played, he has at least 17 carries and 84 rushing yards in each of them.

The Bengals will also turn to Mixon in the passing game with Bernard out, which helped him haul in three of four targets for 22 yards and a touchdown Sunday. This could be a high-scoring game against a Steelers team that is not only averaging 28.6 points per game but has also allowed 26.6 points per contest. Expect Mixon to put up plenty of yards and have a favorable chance of reaching the end zone.

Marshawn Lynch vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – Wembley Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,300

The Raiders are a disaster. They scored 10 points in a loss to the Chargers in Week 5, marking the third time this season they have scored fewer than 20 points in a game. That’s not a recipe for success considering their defense has allowed 29.8 points per contest. Lynch was a victim of their lopsided loss Sunday, receiving a season-low nine carries. He finished with only 31 rushing yards and failed to score a touchdown for the second straight week.

Lynch and the Raiders will look to regroup for the first game of the season in London. This could be a matchup to exploit considering the Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game (129) and the seventh-most yards-per-carry (4.7) in the league. Lynch had received at least 18 carries in each of the previous three weeks and has scored three touchdowns overall, making him an intriguing option in tournament play.

Chris Carson vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Wembley Stadium
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $4,400

One of the most perplexing running back situations in the league can be found in Seattle. They drafted Rashaad Penny in the first round to potentially be their running back of the future, but he hasn’t received more than 10 carries in a game this season and didn’t even log a single offensive snap in Week 5. Mike Davis has surprisingly been given a prominent role over the last two weeks, totaling 169 yards on 33 carries.

Carson was starting to establish himself after rushing 32 times for 102 yards in Week 3, but missed Week 4 due to injury. He returned Sunday, and although Davis still received 12 carries, Carson was the superior runner with 19 carries for 116 yards. Both players should continue to get carries Sunday but expect Carson to see the heavier workload. The uncertainty surrounding Seattle’s backfield has helped keep Carson’s price down, leaving him as someone worth taking a chance on since the Raiders have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (127.2).

Phillip Lindsay vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $6,100
DraftKings = $4,500

Lindsay worked his way into a prominent role at the start of the season and hasn’t looked back. He was ejected early in Week 3’s game against the Ravens but has at least 12 carries and 61 rushing yards in each of his other four games. He’s still sharing the backfield with Royce Freeman, which has worked well for the Broncos so far since both players are averaging more than five yards-per-carry.

The split at running back somewhat limits Lindsay’s upside, especially since Freeman is going to get the majority of the goal-line carries. He already has three rushing touchdowns compared to just one for Lindsay. However, Freeman has received only six targets compared to 12 for Lindsay. The Broncos could find themselves in a big hole early against the Rams offense, and if that’s the case, the game plan late in the game would likely favor Lindsay.  The Rams defense hasn’t been stout against the run, either, allowing the fourth-most yards-per-carry (5.0).

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 - Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – AT&T Stadium
FanDuel = $8,100
DraftKings = $7,000

This has more to do with Elliott’s price and matchup than anything else. He’s clearly one of the best running backs in the league and is the top offensive weapon on the Cowboys based on their lack of talent at wide receiver. They’ve even leaned on him more in the passing game, resulting in Elliot getting 29 targets this year. The Jaguars had a tough time against the Chiefs in Week 5, but the Cowboys have one of the least explosive offenses in the league. Look for the Jaguars to key in on stopping Elliott, making him a risky play at this price.

Kenyan Drake vs. Chicago Bears
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $4,600

Drake had his best performance of the season Sunday, finishing with 115 total yards and a touchdown against the Bengals. However, he only received six carries compared to 12 for Frank Gore. That marked the third straight week that Drake had fewer than 10 rushing attempts. Drake might have big-play upside, but it’s hard for him to cash in if he doesn’t get enough opportunities. The Bears have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (64) and have yet to allow a touchdown on the ground, so stay far away from Drake when crafting your entry.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 5 – Running Backs

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

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One of the top-tier DFS options at running back was lost last week as Leonard Fournette reaggravated his hamstring injury. While he will be on the sidelines for Week 5, Joe Mixon and Devonta Freeman could be making a return to their respective squads. Let’s dig into the running back position to see where you can gain the edge in DFS. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 5 - Running Backs

Todd Gurley vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – CenturyLink Field
FanDuel = $9,100
DraftKings = $9,400

Gurley is as consistent as it comes at the running back position. He has at least 100 total yards in three of four games this season and has recorded at least one touchdown in all four. The Rams have also given him at least 17 rushing attempts in every game and he’s seen at least six targets in three of them. With a talented wide receiver trio to support the emerging Jared Goff at quarterback, defenses can’t key in on Gurley anymore.

Sunday brings an excellent matchup for Gurley as the Seahawks have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game (122.5) and the eighth-most yards-per-carry (4.6). They also suffered a tough blow last week when star safety Earl Thomas was lost for the season due to a broken leg. This game could get out of hand in a hurry for the Seahawks as their offense has struggled, as well, which could lead to a steady dose of Gurley in the second half. Don’t hesitate to pay up to get him into your entry.

Melvin Gordon vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $8,700
DraftKings = $8,600

Gordon hasn’t received more than 15 rushing attempts in a game this season, but he’s been able to accumulate 276 rushing yards because of his career-high 6.1 yards-per-carry. The Chargers have also made him a primary option in the passing game with his 34 targets ranking second on the team behind Keenan Allen (36). Last year, Gordon finished with 58 receptions on 83 targets for 476 yards and four touchdowns. He already has 24 catches for 199 yards and three touchdowns across four games.

Austin Eckler has emerged as a quality second running back, but Gordon has still played at least 72 percent of the team’s offensive snaps in three of their four games. The only game he didn’t was their blowout win over the Bills where he left early with an injury. He won’t get a much easier matchup than he will in Week 5 against the Raiders, who have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (139.3) and the second-most yards-per-carry (5.6).

Christian McCaffrey vs. New York Giants
Stadium – Bank of America Stadium
FanDuel = $8,100
DraftKings = $8,000

The Panthers come into this game well rested after being one of the first teams to have a bye week this season. McCaffrey had the most impressive rushing performance of his career in Week 3, carrying the ball 28 times for 184 yards. Before that contest, he hadn’t received more than 15 rushing attempts in a game during his career and had never even topped 70 rushing yards. Known more for his pass-catching abilities, McCaffrey already has 26 targets through just three games.

Things won’t exactly be easy for him on the ground Sunday against the Giants, who have one of the best run stoppers in the league in Damon Harrison. However, they were torched by Alvin Kamara on Sunday for 134 yards on 19 carries. Even if McCaffrey doesn’t have as many yards on the ground, he has a high floor in DFS based on his involvement in the passing game.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 5 - Running Backs

James Conner vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Heinz Field
FanDuel = $7,800
DraftKings = $7,500

Things couldn’t have gone any better for Conner in Week 1 as he replaced Le’Veon Bell, rushing 31 times for 135 yards and two touchdowns. He also chipped in five receptions on six targets for 57 yards. While it looked like the Steelers wouldn’t skip a beat with him leading their backfield, Conner has only totaled 97 yards on 32 carries in three games since. On the bright side, he did record 13 catches on 18 targets for 107 yards during that stretch.

With the news that Bell plans to return to the Steelers before their Week 8 game, Conner’s days as a starter are numbered. He has a favorable opportunity to get back on track Sunday against the Falcons, who have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game (119) and have been torched for 42 receptions and 310 receiving yards by opposing running backs. Even if the Steelers have to throw a lot to keep up with the Falcons’ explosive offense, Conner has a high ceiling this week.

T.J. Yeldon vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,600

With Fournette going down once again, Yeldon should step in as the lead back for the Jaguars. He played well after Fournette departed early last week, finishing with 100 total yards and two total touchdowns. Over the previous two games that Fournette missed, Yeldon had 102 rushing yards and 59 receiving yards. The Jaguars have used him a lot in the passing game, throwing at least five passes his way in three of four games.

It’s well known that the Chiefs secondary has been porous this season, but they’ve also allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (123.3) and the most receiving yards to opossing running backs (385) by a hefty margin. Corey Grant will get some work, too, but not enough to deal a significant blow to Yeldon’s upside. At this price, he’s hard to pass up in tournament play even if he is expected to be highly-owned.

Matt Breida vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $5,700

This has quickly turned into a lost season for the 49ers with Jimmy Garoppolo and Jerick McKinnon both suffering torn ACL’s. The injury to McKinnon has opened up added opportunities for Breida, who began the year in a timeshare with Alfred Morris. While Morris is still a threat for carries, he’s only averaging 3.8 yards-per-carry and is not a viable option in the passing game. Even though Breida is battling a shoulder injury, he’s been much more explosive by averaging 7.6 yards-per-carry.

Breida is also a better threat to catch passes, receiving 12 targets through four games compared to five for Morris. Breida’s shoulder is still bothering him, but if he can play Week 5, he could be in line for a monster performance. The Cardinals have not only allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (142.3), but they’ve also allowed the most rushing touchdowns (seven).

Aaron Jones vs. Detroit Lions
Stadium – Ford Field
FanDuel = $6,100
DraftKings = $4,300

After missing the first two weeks due to a suspension, the Packers only gave Jones six carries in Week 3. He took advantage of his opportunity with 42 rushing yards, showing he is the most explosive player out of their running back trio that also consists of Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery. They gave him 11 carries against the Bills on Sunday, which he turned into 65 yards and a touchdown.

Montgomery, a former wide receiver, is clearly the best pass-catching option in the Packers backfield, but they would be wise to give Jones more carries. Williams has only averaged 3.4 yards-per-carry after averaging 3.6 yards-per-carry on 153 attempts last year. The real question is, how long with head coach Mike McCarthy continue to stubbornly stick with Williams? If we had a clearer picture, Jones certainly wouldn’t be priced this cheap against a Lions defense that has allowed the most rushing yards per game (157.8). I still think he’s talented enough to provide value even if he doesn’t get the bulk of the carries considering this matchup.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 5 - Running Backs

Jay Ajayi vs. Minnesota Vikings
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $5,100

Ajayi returned after sitting out Week 3 due to a back injury, carrying the ball 15 times for 70 yards against the Titans on Sunday. The Eagles have a lot of options at running back, which has limited Ajayi to playing no more than 53% of their offensive snaps in any of the three games that he played. The Vikings defense hasn’t been nearly as tough this year, but they have limited teams to 104 rushing yards per contest. The Eagles running back situation just isn’t set up for Ajayi to provide significant value.

Dalvin Cook vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stadium – Century Link Field
FanDuel = $6,300
DraftKings = $5,300

Speaking of running backs who have dealt with injury, Cook missed Week 3 with a hamstring issue and was limited by the injury in his return Sunday against the Rams, finishing with 20 yards on 10 carries. He’s listed as questionable for Week 5, but even if he does play, he may once again see a limited workload. Considering the Eagles have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (63.8), Cook is too risky.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 2 – Running Backs

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

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Week 1 wasn’t exactly a banner start for running backs across the NFL with only four players topping 100 rushing yards. Two of them were James Conner, who took advantage of the absence of Le’Veon Bell, and Isaiah Crowell, who was making his debut for the Jets. Let’s dive into the schedule for Week 2 and examine some players to target or avoid as you create your DFS lineup. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 2 - Running Backs

Alvin Kamara vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FanDuel = $9,000
DraftKings = $9,500

Kamara only ran the ball eight times Sunday for 29 yards, but he did record two rushing touchdowns. With the Saints involved in a shootout, Kamara’s heaviest usage came in the passing game as he hauled in nine of 12 targets for 112 yards and another touchdown. Both the 12 targets and 112 receiving yards were the highest marks of his career.

It should come as no surprise that Kamara saw such a high usage catching passes out of the backfield considering he had 100 targets last year. He never had more than 12 rushing attempts in 2017, either, so don’t be surprised if he doesn’t see a major increase even with Mark Ingram suspended. That being said, he has a huge role in the Saints offense and gets another favorable matchup at home against a Browns team that allowed 135 rushing yards and two touchdowns to Conner last week.

Todd Gurley II vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $8,900
DraftKings = $9,200

Gurley was one of the four running backs in the NFL to top 100 rushing yards in Week 1, finishing second to Conner with 108 yards on the ground. He was also one of only five running backs to get at least 20 rushing attempts. The Rams have a lot of weapons at wide receiver, but Gurley is clearly the focal point of their offense.

The Cardinals had a hard time stopping the Redskins rushing attack in Week 1, which was led by Adrian Peterson and his 96 yards on 26 carries. Chris Thompson even chipped in 65 rushing yards on just five attempts. The Cardinals run defense was ranked 23rd heading into this season by Pro Football Focus, so their struggles out of the gate were not all that surprising. Gurley has one of the highest floors of any running back taking the field in Week 2.

Melvin Gordon III vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – New Era Field
FanDuel = $8,200
DraftKings = $7,400

Gordon didn’t exactly dominate on the ground against the Chiefs, rushing 15 times for 64 yards. With the Chargers playing catch up late in the game, Gordon was actually used extensively in the passing attack, catching nine of 13 targets for 102 yards. He had a total of 83 targets in 2017 and should be a significant weapon catching passes out of the backfield again in 2018.

This could be an entirely different type of game for the Chargers against the Bills and their anemic offense. I expect Gordon to see fewer targets, as a result, but he could also get more carries if the Chargers get up big early. The Bills allowed three rushing touchdowns against the Ravens on Sunday after giving up a league-high 22 touchdowns in the ground in 2017, leaving Gordon with the potential for an extremely valuable performance.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 2 - Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $7,000

McCaffrey was the talk of the preseason after the Panthers coaching staff stated they wanted to get him more touches this year. He didn’t exactly set the league on fire in Week 1 against the Cowboys, rushing 10 times for 50 yards. He also caught six of nine targets for 45 yards. While the overall yardage was a positive sign, McCaffrey again failed to reach the end zone after recording just seven total touchdowns in his rookie season.

This could be the week the stars align for McCaffrey against the Falcons, who allowed the most receptions by opposing running backs (107) in the league last year. They have also lost linebacker Deion Jones to a foot injury. The Panthers will also be without tight end Greg Olsen due to another foot injury of his own, opening up even more targets for McCaffrey.

Adrian Peterson vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $6,700
DraftKings = $5,500

Peterson wasn’t overly efficient with his 3.7 yards per carry in Week 1, but it was encouraging to see him rack up 26 carries in the first game of the year. Although he was a late addition to the roster after Derrius Guice was lost for the season with a torn ACL, Peterson is clearly the lead back for the Redskins. Samaje Perine was inactive for the game and Rob Kelley received just three carries.

The Colts secondary might be one of the worst in the league, but their run defense wasn’t much better against the Bengals on Sunday, allowing Joe Mixon to accumulate 95 yards and a touchdown on only 17 carries. Peterson’s volume makes him a very appealing option to consider.

Chris Thompson vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $5,900

Thompson was limited to 10 games last season due to injury, but he was putting up big numbers catching passes out of the backfield before he went down. He averaged 13.1 yards per catch and scored a career-high four receiving touchdowns. Although he’s known more for his receiving skills, Thompson averaged 4.6 yards per carry and has averaged 5.4 yards per carry for his career, overall.

Thompson showed no signs of rust in his first regular season game since November, catching six of 7 targets for 63 yards and a score in Week 1. Add in his 65 yards on the ground and he and Peterson both topped 120 total yards against the Cardinals. There is certainly room for both of them to be successful again this week.

Phillip Lindsay vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $4,900
DraftKings = $4,400

During training camp, Devontae Booker and Royce Freeman were battling it out for the Broncos starting running back job. Freeman entered the season at the top of the depth chart and rushed 15 times for 71 yards against the Seahawks. Booker received only two carries, but he was expected to be more heavily involved in the passing attack. Booker caught both of his targets for 11 yards, but he looks to be behind Lindsay now as well.

Lindsay flashed plenty of potential out of the gate, rushing 15 times for 71 yards and catching two of his three targets for 31 yards. He was on the field for only three fewer snaps than Freeman, but he out-snapped Booker 26 to 19. If you play in season-long fantasy, Lindsay is a hot add off waivers. He’s still very cheap in DFS for Week 2, so it might be a good idea to take advantage of the discount while you still can.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 2 - Running Backs

LeSean McCoy vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – New Era Field
FanDuel = $6,800
DraftKings = $5,700

McCoy was not immune to the disasters of the Bills offense Sunday. In a game that was over early, he had only seven carries for 22 yards. He caught one of his three targets, losing a yard on the lone pass that he hauled in. The Bills quarterback situation is a mess and they don’t have much talent at wide receiver, either, which should allow opposing defenses to focus their efforts on stopping McCoy. With so many other quality options this week, he seems like an unnecessary risk to take.

Jamaal Williams vs. Minnesota Vikings
Stadium – Lambeau Field
FanDuel = $6,100
DraftKings = $5,200

The Packers only ran the ball 18 times Sunday night, 15 of which went to Williams. He didn’t cash in on his opportunities, averaging 3.1 yards per carry. He also failed to catch either of the two passes thrown his way. The Packers had to turn away from the run during their comeback efforts, but their offense is clearly built around Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is dealing with an injury that could at least limit him in this game, but you don’t want to start Williams either way against the stout Vikings defense

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

by Chris Tierney - cstcst 0 Comments

*Chris Tierney – cstcst*

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

If you’re playing DFS this weekend don’t get fancy.  Who is going to win the game and how?  Answer these questions for yourself prior to constructing anything from a lineup perspective.  Making more than one lineup?  Alter who will win and how a bit and construct again, all while keeping a similar core lineup.

As Demarcus Robinson and Josh Hill demonstrated last weekend, roughly one obscure player POPS in each playoff game.  It will likely take having one of these guys on your squad to take down a large GPP.  Rostering players such as these are a true dart throw and the risk often outweighs the reward.  My dart throws this week are Vance McDonald and Corey Davis.  Both guys can make the big play and both have decent matchups.  The Jags have a great defensive backfield and are also adept at rushing the passer.  Quick hitting plays to the TE and RB are two ways to attach a defense like the Jaguars.  Vance McDonald made some big plays for the 49ers last season and has seen his role expand down the stretch after being injured for much of the season.  Corey Davis’s role continues to expand in the Titans passing game.  He had a serviceable game last weekend and faces another spotty secondary this week in a game where his offense will likely have to throw the football.

Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.

 

 

Atlanta (-3.5, 41) at Philadelphia

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

On paper, this sure looks like a 26-13 or thereabouts Falcons win.  They are a veteran-led group with an improving defense who is accustomed to the pressures of the playoffs.  Paper doesn’t mean much come kickoff.  This will be an interesting game and it will be roaring in Philly.  There are some interesting options here but this game isn’t where the majority of my focus will be this weekend.

DFS Chalk:  Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Zack Ertz, Devonta Freeman

DFS Value: Nick Foles, Nelson Agholor, Tevin Coleman, Mohamed Sanu, Jay Ajayi

 

Tennessee at New England (-14, 48)

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

This game has the opportunity to shoot out.  Will the real New England defense please stand up?  Statistically, they’ve been one of the worst units in the NFL this season but they’ve bowed their backs when it mattered most, allowing them to take the Division and home-field advantage yet again.  Tennessee’s pass defense has been a sieve which shines a light upon his Greatness and his favorite Tight End.  I think New England wins here, but I think it will be more difficult than many expect.  The Titans gained some confidence last weekend and I expect their offense to have some success.  I think there are a bunch of players worth rostering in this game.  Remember, Belichick likes to neutralize one aspect of his opponent’s offense.  That has to be the Tennessee running-game right?  #gametheory – Tennessee passing attack is interesting to me in GPP situations.  The return of Hogan should lighten the targets to Cooks here.

DFS Chalk: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Dion Lewis, Delanie Walker, Derrick Henry  

DFS Value: Corey Davis, Eric Decker, James White, Rex Burkhead, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, Rishard Matthews

 

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-7, 41)

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

Sunday should be the fun day for this weekends slate and kicks off with a very interesting matchup in Pittsburgh.  If Ryan Shazier were healthy, I’d think this was a slam dunk Steelers victory.  As we all now, he sadly is not (keep on getting well Ryan!), and the Steelers run defense has not looked the same.  They’ll copy the Bills blueprint and load the box with eight men.  Will Nathan Hackett trust Blake Bortles here?  Will they allow him to attack this Steelers defense down the field with Lee, Hurns and Westbrook?  That is likely their plan and without something like it, they’ll be cleaning out their lockers early next week.  The Steelers offense has the tough chore of the Jaguars defense.  The Jags will slow the Steelers down some here, but the Jags offense has to apply pressure to this Steelers team.  An upset here wouldn’t shock me but I think this is perhaps the most interesting matchup of the playoffs thus far and will be telling about the Steelers Championship hopes.

DFS Chalk: Big Ben, LeVeon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster

DFS Value: Vance McDonald, Dede Westbrook, Mercedes Lewis, Marqise Lee

 

New Orleans at Minnesota (-4.5, 46.5)

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

Like our Carolina | New Orleans call last week, this is the one with the best opportunity to shoot out and could be a thrilling final game to the weekend.  The Vikings are legit, but so are the Saints.  Both of these teams are formidable on both sides of the ball and both teams have offensive players who can score from anywhere on the field.  I prefer Minnesota here but as anyone who follows the NFL knows, the Saints offense is capable of moving 85 yards in two or three plays at any time.

DFS Chalk: Case Keenum, Adam Thielen, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara

DFS Value: Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon, Kyle Rudolph, Ted Ginn, Brandon Coleman, Josh Hill

 

Top GPP Stacks:

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

1a: Case Keenum, Jerick Mckinnon, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas

2a: Tom Brady, James White, Rob Gronkowski, Corey Davis

 

NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football

by Chris Tierney - cstcst 0 Comments

*Chris Tierney – cstcst*

NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football

Welcome to Wild Card weekend! The stakes ramp up on Saturday as the 2018 edition of the NFL playoffs open in Kansas City on Saturday afternoon. There are some intriguing matchups this weekend which we’ll dive into each a little bit below. Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.

 

Tennessee at Kansas City (-8.5, 44)

NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Vegas Implied Final Score:

Kansas City 26
Tennessee 18

Key Injuries:

  • Demarco Murray has been ruled out meaning Derrick Henry will get the majority of touches out of the backfield for the Titans.
  • Albert Wilson was nicked up during the win over Denver but all signs point to him playing this week.

DFS Chalk:  Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Derrick Henry, Alex Smith, Chiefs Defense

DFS Value: Eric Decker, Delanie Walker, Albert Wilson, Corey Davis, Marcus Mariota

Kansas City has gotten well over the past four weeks after a four-game losing streak nearly derailed their season.  The teams they beat during this winning streak?  The Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins and Broncos.  One winning record out of the bunch.  The Titans also stumble into the playoffs having lost three of their final four.  Two of those came in Western time zones in hard fought games against Arizona and San Francisco, and they also dropped a close contest at home to the Rams before clinching this spot last week at home against Jacksonville.  This matchup looks evenly matched on paper and while chilly, the forecasted 28-degree weather is not awful for offensive players.

 

Atlanta at Los Angeles (-6.5, 48.5)

NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Vegas Implied Final Score:

Los Angeles 27.5
Atlanta 22

Key Injuries:

  • There are no injuries of significance to monitor in this game.

DFS Chalk: Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, Rams Defense, Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu

DFS Value: Sammy Watkins, DeVonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Austin Hooper

The biggest DFS decision of the week is whether to fade Todd Gurley, who finished the Regular Season as the top RB in Fantasy Football.  He is very expensive across all formats this weekend and has certainly earned his price tag.  He will feature on Saturday and his success or lack thereof will likely dictate GPP formats before Sunday games even kick off.  Early projected ownership reports have a majority not paying the massive price tag.  Personally, I’ve yet to decide which way I’ll end up going but this is likely the central decision to Wildcard DFS.  Gurley would need to hit the 25-30 point mark to return GPP value, which while doable, is hardly something to bank on.  The Rams defensive weakness is against the run game and I expect the Falcons to attempt to control the ball and play keep away from the Rams in this one.  The Rams are legit and are a very dangerous offense capable of taking what the defense gives them.

 

 

Carolina at New Orleans (-7, 48.5)

NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Las Vegas Implied Score:

New Orleans 27.25
Carolina 21.25

Key Injuries:

  • The Saints tight end situation is a bit murky, and while a complete potential flier, it might be worth paying attention to.

DFS Chalk: Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Greg Olsen, Michael Thomas

DFS Value: Cam Newton, Christian McCaffery, Ted Ginn, Mark Ingram

In our opinion, this sets up as the most interesting game on the weekend slate.  These two teams met the first weekend in December with New Orleans prevailing by 10 points.  In that game, the Saints ran for 148 yards and Brees threw for 269 yards with Kamara accounting for over 120 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns on 14 touches.  In that game, the Panthers defense was visibly frustrated with their inability to wrap up Kamara.  The Panthers will have one focus this week and that will be limiting and tackling the Saints lightning bolt offensive weapon.  That could open the rest of the field for Brees and his wideouts, which sure seems like a good GPP route.  Of course, the Panthers are a talented team very capable of winning and moving on here.  Cam is scrambling once again, which makes him an elite option.  While the Panthers are lacking at the WR position, Christian McCaffery and a healthy Greg Olsen make up for it.  This game is a coin flip and brings plenty of fantasy options with perhaps the best chance of ‘shooting out’.

 

 

Buffalo at Jacksonville (-9, 39.5)

NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Las Vegas Implied Score:

Jacksonville 23.80
Buffalo 16.30

DFS Chalk: LeSean McCoy (if healthy), Leonard Fournette, Jags defense

DFS Value: Kellan Cole, Blake Bortles, Dede Westbrook

LeSean McCoy is likely to give it a go on his bum ankle, and without his presence, the Bills are a tremendous longshot to even threaten the Jaguars in this spot.  Many are down on the Jags after a rough finish that saw them drop two in a row to end the season.  The Jags are an interesting team heading into the postseason and they do two things well that win Championships.  They have the best talent on defense in the AFC and can run the football.  The game script here should allow Fournette and the Jags defense to shine all while awarding a home fan base that hasn’t seen a home playoff game in a decade.  On paper, the Jags sure look like a team that no one wants to host in the Divisional Round.

 

OVERALL:

NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Top DFS Chalk Selections: Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville, Todd Gurley, RB, LA Rams, Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City

Top GPP / Value Selections: Christian McCaffery, RB, Carolina, Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta, Austin Hooper, TE, Atlanta, Eric Decker, WR, Tennessee

Top GPP Contrarian Stack: Cam Newton, Christian McCaffery, Greg Olsen

 

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Wild Card Round

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

*Cesar Becerra*

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Wild Card Round

We’ve made it through another NFL season! I hope you had as much fun as I’ve had during the NFL. But don’t put the brakes on the train quite yet! We still got a few more weeks of NFL DFS, and it doesn’t get any juicier than this Wild Card Week. Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.

 

Pricing is INCREDIBLY tight this week with very little value across the board and plenty of places we’d want to spend money. Barring any last minute breaking news, there isn’t many core value plays to help open up your lineup like we saw in week 17. Let’s get into our breakdown.

** Demarco Murray has been ruled out ** Bump up Derrick Henry for touch projections.

Vegas

We have four games on the slate, and they are Falcons at Rams (48), Saints at Panthers (47.5), Titans at Chiefs (44.5), and Bills at Jaguars (39.5). ATL/LA and CAR/NO both have respectable game totals that you would like to target, while the BUF/JAX game leaves a lot to be desired with a total below 40 points.

The Rams and Saints lead the way with implied team totals of 27.5. The Chiefs (26.5) and Jags (24) aren’t far behind. It’s interesting how none of these games have a spread less than a touchdown. The Rams and Falcons have the closest spread at 5.5, but that line started at 5, which indicates betters are putting more money on the Rams and the line could push the Rams to up over a touchdown favorite. Per usual, check back with Vegas Insiders on Sunday morning for the latest Vegas data.

Quarterbacks

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Wild Card Round

Cam Newton ($6,500) – Cam is the safest play for cash games on this short four-game slate. Cam has a rushed the ball 50 times over his last four games and had accumulated 239 yards (4.8 YPC) with a touchdown. What’s more encouraging is the red zone opportunity Cam is getting rushing the ball. Cam has 12 red zone rushing attempts over these same four games, which shows that if the Panthers get down to the goal line, there’s a good chance Cam is going to score. This matchup is far from ideal as the Saints’ corners are far more talented than the Panthers receivers. But If Cam can get give you 11 DK points through the ground and another 220 and a touchdown through the air you’ll be satisfied he didn’t kill you like he killed many in Week 17.

Drew Brees ($6,400) – By this point in the season, it’s been well documented that Brees doesn’t have the same ceiling as he’s had in the past. But considering he’s implied to score a slate-high 27.5 points and is a home favorite, I don’t mind using Brees as a hedge to the Saints running backs. The Panthers ranked 4th in the league to opposing running backs and 22nd in aFPA to opposing QB (32nd aFPA vs. WR). This screams pass funnel, and I like a Brees pivot off the two-headed monster in the backfield for New Orleans.

Marcus Mariota ($5,500) – Mariota is my value play worth considering. The Chiefs are an 8.5 point favorite (tied for slate high) so that could force the Titans to throw more than they would like. Murray has already been ruled out, so I will be interested to see if they work Henry and Mariota out of the Wild Cat formation, which could increase Mariota’s rushes. The Chiefs ranked 23rd in aFPA to opposing Quarterbacks, so if Mariota is given the opportunity, he should be able to reach his value at $5.5K.

QB Rankings:

Newton

Brees

Goff

Ryan

Mariota

Smith

Bortles

Taylor

 Running Back:

 Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Wild Card Round

Todd Gurley ($9,700) – Gurley is the most expensive player on the slate. While the matchup seems far from ideal with the Falcons ranking 1st in aFPA to opposing running backs, Gurley is in a prime spot to reach value based on his ability to catch balls out of the backfield. The Falcons allowed the most receptions (107) and fifth most receiving yards (802) to running backs this season. Gurley finished in the top 5 of both categories and should eclipse 150 total yards. Gurley also benefits from being a home favorite with a team projected to score the most amount of points on the slate. Gurley might be too expensive for some in cash games given the excess of running back options. But he’s a prime candidate to be the highest scoring player on the slate with 68.5 DK points in his last two games.

Leonard Fournette ($7,400) – Fournette is the matchup play of the week. He’s a home favorite going up against the Bills defense that ranked dead last in aFPA to running backs during the regular season. Fournette also comes in as the fifth highest-priced running back and is the most affordable of the stud running backs. Fournette has 14 receptions in his past four games, but only has 129 yards (9.2 YPC). He doesn’t have the reception upside as Gurley, Kamara, McCoy, or Hunt but that’s why he’s priced lower.

Derrick Henry ($6,000) – With DeMarco Murray out, Henry is in line for another heavy workload day considering the Titans like to run their offense with a run-first mentality. Henry touched the ball 29 times for 117 yards and one score. Those numbers look great on the box score, but when you factor in that Henry only got two targets last week, it could be a little deceiving. If you erase the one catch Henry had for a 66-yard touchdown; you’re looking at a running back that had 5.1 DK points on 28 touches. This is extremely worrisome when you also factor in that the Titans are 8 point underdogs on the road and only implied to score 18 points. Henry might be the best point per dollar play in terms of touches, but the matchup is far from ideal.

RB Rankings:

High Tier

Gurley

Hunt

Fournette

Kamara

McCoy

Mid-Range

Henry

McCaffrey

Ingram

Freeman

Value:

Coleman

Tolbert * If McCoy is out *

Wide Receiver

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Wild Card Round

Michael Thomas ($7,800) – Thomas has 55 targets in the past six games, averaging just over 9 targets per game. In that same span, Thomas has 39 catches (70% catch rate) for 492 yards (82 yards/game) and 3 touchdowns. Thomas is going up against the Panthers who ranked 32nd in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. See Adam Levitan’s tweet below for the most recent production for WR’s 1 against the Panthers secondary. Thomas is the safest high priced option, but will likely need to score to reach value.

Robert Woods ($6,600) – Since I’m likely going to play Thomas in my lineups, I’m probably going to avoid the other chalk wide receiver Tyreek Hill ($6,800). And if I’m staying in that price range I like pivoting to Woods. Since returning from a shoulder injury that kept him out for 3 weeks, Woods has regained his spot as the primary receiver in the Rams offense. In his two games back, Woods has received 15 targets and has turned that into 9 catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. While the production isn’t great, with two full weeks to prepare for this game, expect Sean McVay to work Woods back into the passing game plan. I love getting exposure to Woods mainly because I’m not rostering Goff but I will be rostering Gurley and Woods to get all the exposure of the Rams passing game.

Eric Decker ($3,500)/Corey Davis ($3,600) – Value is really tough to come by on this slate, and you’ll likely need to find a receiver close to min salary to be happy with your lineup. I prefer Decker over Davis and Albert Wilson ($3,300). Let the others flock to Wilson and inflate his ownership because of his 19 targets in the past two games. However, it’s worth noting that last week he played with the Chiefs B-Team, so he was given all the targets (11). I like Decker over Davis because Davis hasn’t been the same since returning from injury. In the past four games, Decker is out targeting Davis 32 to 26 while playing the same amount of snaps (76%). The Chiefs ranked 26th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers, and Decker leads the wide receivers in targets in their last four games.

WR Rankings:

High

Thomas

Julio

Woods

Hill

Funches

Mid-Range

Sanu

Ginn

Matthews

Kupp

Value

Decker

Davis

Tight End

 Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Wild Card Round

It’s really difficult to find the salary to pay for Travis Kelce ($7,100). You have to decide if you want Kelce or a top-tier wide receiver but unfortunately, that forces you to play value wide receivers, and I see more value at the tight end position than a receiver. Because we’re so limited in value, this could be a week that we see two tight ends in a lot of lineups.

Delanie Walker ($4,700) – Walker is a nice mid-range tight end that could find his way in your lineups. He has 29 targets in his past four games and has turned that into 16 catches for 131 yards and one touchdown. This week he goes up against the Chiefs who rank 13th in aFPA. Walker would need to find the end zone to make value, but he has a respectable floor compared to the other options.

Austin Hooper ($2,900) – Hooper will be a popular value option at tight end. He doesn’t do anything that wow’s the box score (13 targets in last four games). But he’s a value play below $3K that will see 2-6 targets and is going up against the Rams who ranked 20th in aFPA to tight ends. It’s nothing special, but at least you won’t be the only one rostering him this week.

Marcedes Lewis ($2,500) – Again like I said, value is scarce, so I’m giving you an extra tight end I’m considering. Lewis is not a target monster by any means (8 in last four games). But I’m encouraged by his team market share of receiving touchdowns (23.8%), which is second among all tight ends behind Kelce. In the red zone, Lewis has a 40% touchdown rate per target (4 TDs to 10 targets). At 2.5K all he needs is to catch a touchdown. It’s a shot in the dark, but that’s how you have to build lineups this week.

TE Rankings:

Kelce

Walker

Olsen

Clay

Lewis

Hooper

Defense

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Wild Card Round

Los Angeles Rams ($2,700) – The Rams are the best defense for value playing at home against a Falcons team that is only implied to score 21 points. They are cheap enough to take a risk on and have the second highest sack percentage (9%) on the slate behind the Jags (11%).

DST Rankings:

Jags

Rams

Chiefs

Bills

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

by Chris Durell 0 Comments

*Chris Durell*

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

Tier 1

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

Only three options in the first tier but the decision will not be an easy one should be running just one lineup this week. Todd Gurley trails Kareem Hunt by just 13 yards rushing this season but has 190 more receiving yards and eight more total touchdowns giving him 25.1 DraftKings points per game this season and right in the middle of the league MVP talks. He is coming off a monster game where he rushed for 152 yards and three touchdowns and also added another touchdown through the air leading the Rams to a huge victory over their division rivals, the Seahawks. Kareem Hunt is also coming off a big game last week with 155 yards rushing and a touchdown and also added nine receptions for 51 yards and a touchdown through the air. It seems the Chiefs just needed to get Andy Reid away from making play calls for Hunt to get back on track as that is now back to back weeks with 100+ yards rushing.

Outside of Week 14 where he got injured, Alvin Kamara has been extremely consistent this season with seven games with 20 or more DraftKings points and sits with 1,336 all-purpose yards and 12 touchdowns. Looking at the matchups, all three of their opponents rank in the top third of the league in rushing yards per game allowed but Tennessee is the only one of the three to hold opponents under 100 yards per game and they also rank 4th overall when looking at DraftKings points per game to running backs.

The game script definitely favors Gurley, however, and he has proven to be near matchup proof at this point. When looking at DraftKings points per game allowed, Hunt has the best matchup of the three as the Dolphins rank 28th in that category and they have also allowed the most rushing yards per game(109.9). The DVOA ranks tell another story as the Falcons rank 30th in that category against the rush which is great news for Kamara who is averaging 6.6 yards per carry this season. The only knock on Kamara is that he is sharing a backfield with Mark Ingram who is also having a heck of a season. Using FanShareSports early in the week, Hunt and Gurley are neck and neck at the top and should command ownership in this tier and for me, I will be running about 45% of each with a little mix of Kamara in some contrarian lineups.

Top Targets in this Tier – Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt

Tier 2

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

The second tier brings us two of the six running backs in the league who have already broke 1,000 yards rushing this season. I mentioned in the last tier how the Saints have been splitting the reps almost down the middle between rookie Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram and both are having tremendous season leading the Saints to the #1 overall DVOA rank in rushing. While the Falcons rank 12th when looking at DraftKings points allowed to running backs, they have been much worse on the DVOA scale ranking 30th this season. The Saints are currently 5.5 point favorites in a game with a 52.5 Vegas Total which could lead to another run-heavy game script for the Saints. While the game script for LeSean McCoy is not in his favor as the Bills are 11.5 point dogs to the Patriots, he has a lot going for him in this matchup. Both teams rank Top 10 in pace and McCoy always gets his share of touches in the offense regardless of game script. The Patriots have also been pretty bad against running backs as well as they have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game(122.3) and rank dead last in DVOA vs. the rush.

Up next, we have two elite receivers facing each other this week. The bad news for both of them is that both teams rank Top 12 in receiving yards per game and Top 15 in DVOA vs. the pass and both have elite corners in Marshon Lattimore(NO) and Desmond Trufant(ATL) who rank near the top of PFF’s cornerback rankings. The good news is that both receivers are getting targeted a ton in their respective offenses with Julio at 9.0 per game while Thomas is getting 9.7 per game. Julio leads with 1,215 yards while Thomas has 1,085 but Thomas has the slight edge in DraftKings points per game thanks to scoring two more touchdowns.  This game is projected to be a shootout and the only game this week with a Vegas Total exceeding 50 so I don’t think you can go wrong with either here in this spot.

Top Targets in this Tier – Micheal Thomas, Mark Ingram

Tier 3

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

Gronk returned from his one-game suspension last week and went off again posting 168 yards on nine receptions. That gives him back to back weeks with 100 or more receiving yards and three straight weeks with 25 or more DraftKings points. I wouldn’t go as far to say he gets a great matchup this week as the Bills rank 12th in DVOA vs. the pass but have been much worse against tight ends than wideouts as they rank 22nd in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position vs. 9th against wideouts. Gronk is pretty matchup proof as well. The other tight end in this tier, Travis Kelce, sits second to Gronk in receiving yards this season with 991 but has the same amount of touchdowns with seven. He has also slightly out-targeted Gronk this season with 8.1 per game but more importantly this week, he gets a way better matchup. Not only do the Dolphins rank 27th in DVOA vs. the pass but they have been terrible vs. tight ends ranking 28th overall in DraftKings points allowed to the position.

We also get two runnings backs in this tier who have been very productive lately. Kenyan Drake took over the #1 role in the Dolphins backfield when Jay Ajayi was traded to Philly and has heated up lately with 100 yards or a touchdown in four straight games for an average of 22.4 DraftKings points per game. The matchup is a bit tricky this week as the Chiefs do rank 31st in DVOA vs. the rush but 11th in DraftKings points per game to the position. The biggest knock on Drake this week could be the game script as the Dolphins are currently 10 point road underdogs and projected for just over 16 points. Drake will undoubtedly be the lowest owned player in this tier. Melvin Gordon, despite only breaking 100 yds twice this season, has been very productive ranking 7th in rushing yards (931) and has topped 75 yards in three straight games and has scored a touchdown in back to back games. The matchup is so-so as the Jets rank 13th in DVOA vs. the rush and 14th in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs but he should get plenty of volume as the Chargers are 6.5 point favorites and projected to score around 25 points this week.

Top Targets in this Tier – Travis Kelce, Melvin Gordon

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

Tier 4

 Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

All four quarterbacks in this tier are at home and all of them beside Drew Brees are huge double-digit favorites. Looking at each player’s last four weeks performance, it has been Cam Newton and Alex Smith who have been far and away the best quarterbacks as both are averaging over 21 DraftKings points per game. Smith’s performance is a bit skewed as he had a huge week 13 scoring 40.6 DK points but didn’t exceed 20 in either of the other three weeks. Cam has been much more consistent with performances of 31.4, 15.5, 20.4, and 17.5 and he has also topped 20 DK points in 50% of his starts this season. He adds a ton of value using his rushing ability and leads all quarterbacks with 643 yards on the ground with five rushes of 20+ yards and five touchdowns.

Despite struggling recently with just two touchdowns over his last three games, Tom Brady still leads the league in passing while averaging 297 yards per game and trails on Carson Wentz and Russell Wilson in touchdown passes. As for Drew Brees, he has not thrown for 300 yards in four straight weeks and has only done so three times this season while throwing for three touchdowns just once and most of that can be contributed to the elite run game that Saints possess. When it comes down to matchups, Cam Newton clearly gets the best of them facing a Bucs team that has allowed a league-high 271.3 yards and ranks 29th in DVOA vs. the pass. Next best matchup goes to Alex Smith who faces a Dolphins team that sits mid-pack when looking at yards per game allowed (222.6) but ranks 27th in DVOA vs. the pass. Of the four, Tom Brady has the worst matchup on paper going against a Bills defense that ranks 12th in DVOA vs. the pass and 4th overall in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position.

Top Target in this Tier – Cam Newton, Alex Smith

Tier 5

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

Tier 5 gives us four quarterbacks who are all playing on the road this week and all but Matt Ryan are favorites. Matthew Stafford leads the way this season with 18.8 DraftKings points per game but it has been Phillip Rivers crushing value lately averaging 21.6 DraftKings points per game over his last four thanks to posting 20+ in three of those games. No other quarterback in this tier has more than one and Matt Ryan has zero after back to back performances of under 10 DraftKings points.

Rivers and Goff have the best matchups of the four as the Jets rank 22nd in DVOA vs. the pass and 27th in DK points per game allowed while the Titans rank 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and 17th in DK points per game allowed to the position. Ryan gets the worst matchup in this tier facing the Saints who rank 4th in DVOA vs. the pass and 13thin DK points allowed while Stafford’s matchup is in the middle with the Bengals ranking 18th in DVOA vs. the pass and 11th in DK points allowed to the position but have definitely been trending down lately allowing quarterbacks to score an average of 21.1 DK points per game.

Top Targets in this Tier – Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford

Tier 6

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

Three of the four wide receivers (Hill, Funchess, Cooks) teams in this tier are double-digit favorites which could work against their game scripts a little bit but it will be hard to avoid some of the matchups. For instance, Devin Funchess faces a Bucs team that has allowed the most DraftKings points per game this season. He could also be lower owned here coming off a one-catch week for just 19 yards. The concern Funchess this week is the shoulder injury that has been nagging him as he was held out of practice on Wednesday. If you are looking for consistency then don’t overlook Tyreke Hill in this spot as he has tallied double-digit DK points in six straight and eight of his last 10 games, twice going over 25 points. Over the past four weeks, he has also seen an uptick in his targets(8 per game) and sees a matchup vs. the Dolphins who rank 27th in DVOA vs. the pass.

On the flip side, Brandin Cooks has been trending down lately averaging just six targets per game and has exceeded 75 yards just once in that time. Robert Woods made his return last week after being held out for three weeks due to injury and looked catching six of his seven targets for 45 yards and a touchdown. The Rams are 6.5 point favorites and although Todd Gurley has been red hot, they may need to throw a bit more as the Titans have been much worse against the pass this season ranking 24th in DVOA and 23rd in DraftKings points per game to wideouts.

Both running backs in this tier are in great spots this week as their teams (Panthers, Patriots) are both double-digit home favorites. Dion Lewis is likely in for a bit bigger role this week with Rex Burkhead out a couple weeks with a knee sprain. That is good news considering he has already been getting a nice run with double-digit carries in eight of his last nine games. He also gets an elite matchup vs. the Bills who have allowed 122 rushing yards per game (8th most) and the most DraftKings points per game to running backs this season. Christian McCaffrey leads all running backs with an average of 7.2 targets per game and has been a PPR star with double-digit fantasy points in 11 of his 14 games, going over 20 DK points five times.

Top Targets in this Tier – Dion Lewis, Christian McCaffrey, Tyreke Hill

Tier 7

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

I will start with the wideouts in this tier and not only does Jarvis Landry lead them all with an average of 16.3 DK points per game this season, he also gets the best matchup this week. He will be facing the Chiefs who have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game and while they rank 17th in DVOA vs. pass, they rank 30th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wide receivers. You also never have to worry about usage with Landry as he is one of just three players in 2017 to average double-digit targets each week (10.3).

The Bengals top wideout, A.J. Green, is not far behind averaging 8.8 targets per game and has been trending up lately with 10 targets per game over his last four but is coming off a down week where Xavier Rhodes shut him down with just two catches for 30 yards. Things don’t get any easier for Green this week as he will likely see a ton of Darius Slay who ranks as a Top 10 corner on Pro Football Focus.

On the other side of the ball, we have Marvin Jones Jr. who has been extremely consistent lately recording double-digit fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games with 20 or more in four of those games. While the Bengals rank 3rd in DK points per game allowed to wideouts, they have struggled a ton lately allowing a 100-yard receiver in three straight weeks (four total). Josh Gordon has been targeted 27 times in his three games since returning to the Browns and scored once but has yet to have that monster game we are all waiting for, maybe it’s the fact he is now playing sober (boom).

With Tevin Coleman out last week, Devonta Freeman got 24 carries but wasn’t overly impressive with 91 yards (3.8 per carry) but saved his fantasy day with a touchdown. This week it appears Coleman will be back in the mix which will limit Freeman’s carries but the Falcons are currently underdogs which could help him with some targets in the passing game. Jordan Howard has been up and down all season with four performances of 20+ DK points but has also put up six performances under 10 DK points. This week he faces a Browns team that ranks #1 in DVOA vs. the rush but have been trending down lately. The game script could definitely be in his favor as the Bears are currently 6.5 point favorites.

Top Targets in this Tier – Jarvis Landry, Marvin Jones Jr, Jordan Howard

Tier 8

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

While Marvin Jones has been the consistent piece of the Lions receiving core, Golden Tate has been hit and miss. He has tallied double-digit DK points twice in his last four games but also posted six DK points in the other two games. I mentioned the matchup earlier vs. the Bengals who have allowed four 100-yard receivers in the last three weeks so Tate is fully in play this week.

Robby Anderson was limited in Wednesday’s practice and even if he plays, he should be avoided as he is likely shadowed by PFF’s #1 ranked corner in Casey Hayward. Demaryius Thomas is on my radar this week and has been fairly productive lately catching 20 of his 38 targets for 207 yards and a touchdown. The problem this week is the matchup vs. the Redskins who rank 8th in DVOA vs. the pass and 8th in DK points per game allowed to wideouts.

Cooper Kupp has not been the most consistent fantasy option this season and a lot of that has to do with Todd Gurley running over defenses but Kupp is in a nice spot this week vs. the Titans who rank 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and 23rd in DK points allowed to wideouts. With Julio Jones normally getting a ton of the opposing defenses attention, Mohamed Sanu has thrived on the other side lately with 20+ DK points in two of his last three games. Stay tuned for the injury status, however, as he was limited on Wednesday with a knee injury.

Bengals rookie running back, Joe Mixon, was a full participant in practice on Wednesday and likely to be cleared by the league to return this week. Should he get back on the field, he gets a nice matchup vs. the Lions who have allowed 111 yards rushing per game and rank 29th overall in DK points per game allowed to running backs.

Top Targets in this Tier – Golden Tate, Cooper Kupp, Joe Mixon(if he starts)

 

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!