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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 10 – TE/DEF/ST

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

Zach Ertz and George Kittle are both playing in primetime games during Week 10, taking two of the top tight ends off the board in DFS. Let’s dive into the schedule and examine some players, and defenses/special teams, to target or avoid as you create your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 10 - TE/DEF/ST

Travis Kelce vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $8,000
DraftKings = $7,000

The Chiefs scored 37 points against the Browns in Week 9, marking their fifth straight game with at least 30 points. To no surprise, Kelce again played an integral role in their success, catching seven of nine targets for 99 yards and two touchdowns. Kelce had gone a stretch of three consecutive games without a score, but he’s recorded three touchdowns across the last two weeks.

Even though the Chiefs have a ton of talent on offense, Kelce leads the team with 79 targets. His 14 red zone targets are also the most on the team, leaving him with plenty of opportunities to rack up fantasy points. The Cardinals defense has been tough against the pass, but that shouldn’t scare you away from playing Kelce. He’s the clear top option at tight end, so don’t hesitate to pay up for him in cash games.

O.J. Howard vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,300

The Bucs have had an unsettled quarterback situation this season, but whether Ryan Fitzpatrick of Jameis Winston has started, Howard has still had plenty of success. The Bucs suffered yet another loss in Week 9 against the Panthers, but they managed to score 28 points. Howard was a big part of their offensive production, hauling in four of six targets for 53 yards and two touchdowns. After a slow start in terms of touchdowns, Howard now has four scores across his last four contests.

Howard has certainly put to rest any concerns about fellow tight end Cameron Brate limiting his production. Outside of a Week 4 matchup against the Bears when Howard had to leave early due to an injury, Howard has been on the field for a higher percentage of snaps than Brate in every week. With the Bucs porous defense often putting their offense in situations where they have to throw a lot to keep up, Howard should remain a great option against the Redskins.

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $4,900
DraftKings = $3,400

One of the ugliest games in Week 9 had to be the bout between the Jets and Dolphins. Scoring was hard to come by on both sides, which was particularly impressive for the Jets defense considering their offense couldn’t move the ball at all, often putting them in a hole field position wise. They failed to force a turnover, but they did record four sacks, marking the fourth time they’ve posted at least four sacks in a game this season.

Week 10 brings the dream matchup against the Bills. If you’re looking for a good cash option in just about any week, check to see who is playing the Bills. The Bills aren’t sure who is going to start at quarterback in this game, but regardless of who it is, none of their options are all that appealing. They have very little talent on offense, anyway, setting up the Jets defense for possibly their best performance of the season. If Nathan Peterman is ultimately the one who draws the start, the sky is the limit for the Jets.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 10 - TE/DEF/ST

David Njoku vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $5,400
DraftKings = $4,200

After a disastrous Week 8 where he didn’t receive a single target against the Steelers, Njoku was due for a bounce-back performance. It wasn’t an eye-popping outing, but Njoku caught four of five targets for 53 yards in Week 9. That’s much more in line with his season averages since he had received at least six targets in all but one game before Week 8.

The Browns allowed 37 points to the Chiefs on Sunday, which forced them to throw a lot in an attempt to come back. The Falcons aren’t nearly as explosive as the Chiefs are, but they’ve scored at least 31 points in a game five times this year. The Browns should be forced to pass plenty in this contest, as well, potentially setting up Njoku for a productive day considering the Falcons have allowed 42 receptions for 434 yards and three touchdowns to opposing tight ends.

Jordan Reed vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $5,200
DraftKings = $4,400

The decision to move on from Kirk Cousins and bring in Alex Smith at quarterback hasn’t worked out very well in terms of passing production for the Redskins. Cousins had 27 touchdowns and averaged 255.8 passing yards per game last year, but Smith only has nine touchdowns through eight games and is averaging 233.4 passing yards per contest. Of course the year Reed is finally healthy, the Redskins bring in a less explosive passer.

Reed is currently dealing with a neck injury, but everything so far points to him playing against the Bucs. Although he hasn’t recorded more than 43 receiving yards in any of his last five games, Reed could be a sneaky option to consider for your entry. The Bucs defense has been terrible, in general, but they’ve really been hammered by opposing tight ends, allowing 618 yards and five touchdowns to the position.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Oakland Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $4,700
DraftKings = $3,500

The Chargers had to travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks in Week 9, but their defense played well by holding them to 17 points. That marked the fourth straight game in which the Chargers have held their opponents to under 20 points. They also sacked Russell Wilson five times and have a total of 14 sacks during their recent run of success.

It’s hard to pass up on the Jets against the Bills, but if you decide to, the Chargers might be the next best option to consider. The Raiders offense hasn’t been great for the majority of the season and is even worse now after the traded Amari Cooper to the Cowboys and lost Marshawn Lynch to a groin injury. When these two teams met earlier this season, the Chargers had three sacks, an interception, and a fumble recovery while holding the Raiders to 10 points. Look for them to thrive again Sunday.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 10 - TE/DEF/ST

Eric Ebron vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $5,400
DraftKings = $3,500

Ebron really stepped up for the Colts when they were decimated by injuries, specifically during an extended absence for Jack Doyle. Doyle was able to return to the field in Week 8 and ended up playing 73 percent of the Colts offensive plays. Ebron saw his usage plummet as he was only on the field for 22 percent of their plays. In the first two games that Dayle played this season, he was on the field for at least 94 percent of their plays in both contests. On the other hand, Ebron was never on the field more than 45 percent of the time. Now that Doyle is back, Ebron’s upside is severely limited.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $3,300

Yes, the Cardinals offense has been a mess this year. However, the majority of their struggles came with offensive coordinator Mike McCoy at the helm. Even though the Cardinals didn’t look much better when they scored 18 points against the 49ers in Week 8, new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich had the benefit of a bye in Week 9 to help install his offensive scheme. The Cardinals still have some weapons in David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, so this isn’t a slamdunk matchup for the Chiefs defense to excel. Since they don’t come at much of a discount over the Jets or Chargers, it might be best to avoid the Chiefs.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 9 – TE/DEF/ST

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

Six teams on a bye for Week 9, dealing a significant blow to the options at tight end in DFS. Let’s dive into the schedule and examine some players, and defenses/special teams, to target or avoid as you create your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 9 - TE/DEF/ST

Travis Kelce vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $7,600
DraftKings = $6,600

Kelce came through for the Chiefs in their win over the Broncos in Week 8, catching six of 10 targets for 79 yards and a touchdown. With that performance, Kelce now has at least five receptions in seven consecutive games and at least eight targets in six of those contests. He only has four touchdowns this year despite the Chiefs explosive offense, but his 80.3 yards per game is the highest mark of his career.

If you are prepared to pay a premium at tight end, Kelce is the safe route to take. He leads the Chiefs with 70 targets, which actually ranks inside the top-15 in all of football. The Browns have only given up two touchdowns to opposing tight ends, but they have allowed 44 receptions to them, which is tied for fifth-most in the league. This game has the potential to get out of hand for the Browns early, so expect Kelce to be heavily involved in yet another offensive explosion for the Chiefs.

O.J. Howard vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium – Bank of American Stadium
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $4,300

Howard only received four targets in Week 8, but he made the most of his opportunities by catching all of them for 68 yards and a touchdown. The score was Howard’s second in his last three games, giving him a total of three for the season. His targets have been a bit up an down, but that hasn’t stopped Howard from recording at least 54 receiving yards in six of seven games. The only contest where he didn’t reach that mark was in Week 4 against the Bears when he had to leave early due to injury.

One major plus about the Bucs offense is that their defense often puts them in an early hole that they have to try and pass their way out of. The Bucs are making a change back to Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, but that shouldn’t impact Howard negatively considering how well the two played together when Jameis Winston was suspended to start the year. The Panthers have allowed 545 yards and five touchdowns to tight ends, making Howard a great option at this reasonable price.

Chicago Bears vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – New Era Field
FanDuel = $5,400
DraftKings = $4,100

The Bears only allowed 10 points to the Jets in Week 8, but they didn’t force a single turnover. That’s saying something considering Jets quarters Sam Darnold has 10 interceptions. They also recorded just one sack, which can mostly be attributed to the absence of Khalil Mack (ankle). The Bears had started out strong in that area this year, recording at least four sacks in each of their first four games.

Whether or not Mack returns for this game, you still want to play the Bears defense. The Bills offense is already a mess, but due to injuries to Josh Allen (elbow) and Derek Anderson (concussion), it looks like Nathan Peterman will once again be their starting quarterback. Peterman has thrown four picks across only 32 pass attempts this year, so don’t hesitate to pay up for the Bears, even at this expensive price for a defense.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 9 - TE/DEF/ST

Greg Olsen vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Bank of American Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,700

Olsen continues to battle his way through a foot injury, but he’s been on the field for at least 97 percent of the Panthers offensive snaps the last three games. He only has 10 receptions for 109 yards during that stretch, but he has found his way into the end zone in both of the last two weeks. The Panthers will continue to take a cautious approach with him in practice leading up to Sunday but expect him to be on the field a lot once again.

Even though Olsen has been one of the most consistent tight ends in the league, his upside is limited by his injury. That makes him somewhat of a risky play, but this could be a matchup to exploit. The Bucs have not only allowed the second-most passing yards per game (318), but they’ve allowed 542 yards and four touchdowns to opposing tight ends.

David Njoku vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $5,200
DraftKings = $4,600

Talk about a rough week for Njoku. The Browns had plenty of problems scoring points against the Steelers, ultimately losing 33-18. Njoku has been a big part of their offense, but he didn’t receive a single target Sunday. He may have been hampered by a knee injury that has limited him in practice leading up to Week 9, but he was on the field for 84 percent of their offensive snaps.

Don’t panic over one bad game from Njoku. He had received at least six targets in all but one game leading up to Week 8 and had four straight games with at least 52 receiving yards. With the likelihood that the Browns are going to have to throw a lot to keep up with the Chiefs, Njoku is going to get targets Sunday if he’s healthy enough to play. With there being no indication so far that he won’t be able to suit up, he’s a great option in tournament play.

Houston Texans vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – Broncos Stadium at Mile High
FanDuel = $4,700
DraftKings = $3,000

The Texans hung 42 points on the Dolphins in Week 8, but they did allow them to score 23 points of their own. The Texans defense had been on a streak of allowing 16 points or fewer in three straight games, but those were three outstanding matchups against the Cowboys, Bills, and Jaguars. Outside of games versus the Patriots and Colts, the Texans really haven’t been faced with many offensive juggernauts this year.

The schedule continues to fall in their favor for Week 9 against a Broncos team that just traded away receiver Demaryius Thomas. Case Keenum has not played well since coming over from the Vikings and the Broncos haven’t protected him, either, resulting in 22 sacks. To put that into perspective, Keenum was sacked 22 times all last season. If you don’t want to pay up for the Bears, the Texans are another viable option to consider.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 9 - TE/DEF/ST

Austin Hooper vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $5,900
DraftKings = $3,800

Hooper isn’t priced poorly on DraftKings, but his price on FanDuel doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. It’s likely inflated due to his performances in Weeks 5 and 6 where he combined for 18 receptions on 22 targets for 148 yards and a touchdown. However, over his other five games, he has a total of 15 receptions on 19 targets for 173 yards and a score. Buyer beware, especially against a Redskins team that has only given up 292 receiving yards to tight ends.

Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Bank of America Stadium
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $3,200

The Panthers might explode offensively against the Bucs, but their defense could be in for a struggle. The Bucs throw the ball a ton and have some great offensive weapons. Fitzpatrick can be turnover prone, but he also had 11 touchdown passes across his first three games. This isn’t exactly an appealing price for the Panthers, either, so it might be best to avoid them altogether when crafting your lineup.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 8 – TE/DEF/ST

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

Even with four teams on a bye for Week 8, the tight end position has several excellent options available in DFS. Let’s dive into the schedule and examine some players, and defenses/special teams, to target or avoid as you create your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 8 - TE/DEF/ST

Travis Kelce vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,300
DraftKings = $6,800

Kelce had another impressive performance last week against the Bengals, catching all five of his targets for 95 yards. He just missed posting 100 yards for the fourth time this season, but he has now caught at least five passes in six straight games. With his 60 targets and 563 receiving yards, he’s well on his way to his third straight season with at least 100 targets and 1,000 receiving yards.

This could actually be the best year yet for Kelce as his 14.8 yards per reception and 80.4 yards per game would both be the highest marks of his career. With a major upgrade at quarterback in Patrick Mahomes over Alex Smith, the Chiefs offense is demolishing the league. Kelce’s three touchdowns are a bit disappointing, but he’s still a great option in cash contests based on his role in this explosive offense.

David Njoku vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Stadium – Heinz Field
FanDuel = $5,700
DraftKings = $4,600

Njoku doesn’t exactly pile up yards, but he does have at least 52 receiving yards in four straight games. He’s proven to be an important part of the Browns passing game, receiving at least six targets in all but one game. Although it took him a while to find the end zone, he has a touchdown in back-to-back contests.

Njoku has added opportunities to provide value because he has been on the field for 83 percent of the team’s offensive snaps, second only to Jarvis Landry (94 percent). With the departure of Josh Gordon, the Browns don’t have a ton of talent at wide receiver outside of Landry. The Steelers have been destroyed by opposing tight ends, allowing 46 receptions for 478 yards and three touchdowns to the position. If you don’t want to pay up for Kelce, Njoku is also one of the safer options based on this matchup.

Chicago Bears vs. New York Jets
Stadium – Soldier Field
FanDuel = $5,000
DraftKings = $4,100

The Bears defense looked like a powerhouse to start the year, allowing an average of 16.3 points across their first four games. All that changed in Week 6 when they gave up 31 points to the Dolphins, of all teams. They followed that up by allowing 38 points to the Patriots. On a positive note, they did force six turnovers across those two contests.

One area of concern for the Bears is that after recording at least four sacks in each of their first four games, they only had one in the two games where they gave up all those points. Part of that is because Khalil Mack is battling an ankle injury, which still might hinder him in Week 8. The Jets offense is decimated by injuries right now and Sam Darnold has thrown 10 interceptions, so they are still a top option even with their recent struggles.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 8 - TE/DEF/ST

Trey Burton vs. New York Jets
Stadium – Soldier Field
FanDuel = $6,400
DraftKings = $4,800

Being involved in a shootout with the Patriots last week certainly paid off for Burton, who had a season-high 11 targets. He hadn’t received more than six targets in any of the previous five games. Not only did he get plenty of passes thrown his way, but he took full advantage of the opportunity by catching nine of them for 126 yards and a touchdown. It marked Burton’s third straight game with a touchdown and his fourth score of the season, overall.

The Bears signed Burton to a big deal in the offseason, and even though his 325 receiving yards aren’t stellar, he has been on the field for 82 percent of their offensive snaps. That’s second only to Allen Robinson (88 percent). His five red zone targets are second only to Robinson and Tarik Cohen, who have seven each. Burton’s touchdown dependency makes him a bit of a risky play, but the Jets have allowed three touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season.

O.J. Howard vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $5,800
DraftKings = $3,900

Howard received a season-high nine targets in Week 7, leading to five receptions for 67 yards. Outside of Week 4 when he injured his knee against the Bears, Howard has finished with at least 54 receiving yards in each of his other five contests. The Bucs do have another talented tight end in Cameron Brate, but Howard is clearly their top option at the position. Brate has only been on the field for 39 percent of their offensive plays while Howard has been on the field 59 percent of the time.

With how poorly the Bucs play on defense, they often get involved in high scoring contests where they have to abandon the running game. That certainly provides a boost in value for Howard, who has a matchup to exploit in Week 8 against a Bengals team that has allowed the third-most receiving yards (521) to opposing tight ends.

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $3,200

If you just look at the final score of the Cardinals’ 45-10 loss to the Broncos in Week 7, it doesn’t exactly instill a ton of confidence for playing their defense in Week 8. However, the Broncos returned two interceptions for touchdowns, so the drubbing wasn’t all the fault of the Cardinals defense. Josh Rosen through threw total interceptions in that contest, which didn’t do any favors for his defense.

The Cardinals are terrible against the run, allowing the most rushing yards per game (148.3) in the league. The 49ers are a bit banged up in their backfield with Matt Breida dealing with an ankle injury. Even if he does play, it’s an injury that has plagued him at times this year, so he’s no guarantee to make it through the entire contest. Their quarter C.J. Beathard has shown flashes of promise, but he’s thrown at least two interceptions in three of his four starts. The Cardinals had four sacks, three fumble recoveries and two interceptions against the 49ers in Week 5, so they might be worth the risk in tournament play.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 8 - TE/DEF/ST

Jordan Reed vs. New York Giants
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $5,800
DraftKings = $4,500

In a somewhat surprising turn of events, Reed is still healthy heading into Week 8. He’s already played in six games this year, matching his total from last season. The problem is, he hasn’t been productive with just 22 receptions for 268 yards and one touchdown. His total of 35 targets isn’t a terrible number, but his 62.9 percent catch rate is the lowest mark of his career. The Giants traded away a couple of their better defensive players in Eli Apple and Damon Harrison this week, but Reed still might not be worth the risk for your lineup.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium – Bank of America Stadium
FanDuel = $3,700
DraftKings = $2,800

The Ravens defense hasn’t given up a lot of points this year, so this might not stand out as a team to avoid. However, they haven’t been great at creating turnovers with just five interceptions and two fumble recoveries, total. They’ve also recorded one or no sacks in three of their seven games. The Panthers are tied for the fifth-fewest sacks allowed (10) and Cam Newton has only thrown four picks, potentially leaving the Ravens with very little upside Sunday.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 3 – TE/DEF/ST

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Early bird special! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

The tight end position has grown even thinner due to some key injuries through the first two weeks, but there is still value to be found at the position. There are also some defenses who could be primed to dominate in Week 3. Let’s dive into the schedule and examine some players, and defenses/special teams, to target or avoid as you create your DFS entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 3 - TE/DEF/ST

Travis Kelce vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $6,700

Kelce had a quiet performance Week 1, finishing with one catch for six yards. However, he did receive six targets, so it was only a matter of time before he had his first big game of the season. That came last week when he hauled in seven of 10 targets for 109 yards and two touchdowns in a shootout against the Steelers.

There is no question that Kelce is one of the top tight ends in the league. After his Week 1 dud, it was reassuring to see him get back on track so quickly with his new quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have a ton of weapons on offense, but Kelce is still going to get a hefty amount of targets. This has the potential to be another high-scoring affair, leaving Kelce with a high floor once again.

Jordan Reed vs. Green Bay Packers
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $6,000
DraftKings = $5,400

The most important note on Reed is that through two weeks of the season, he’s still healthy. Injuries have put a huge damper on his production in recent years, but he’s one of the more talented pass-catching tight ends when he’s on the field. He’s already received 13 targets through the first two weeks, converting them into 10 receptions, 103 yards, and a touchdown.

It’s no surprise that Reed has a 76.9% catch rate so far as he has never finished a season with a catch rate lower than 74.2%. His 13 targets are second on the team behind running back Chris Thompson (21) and he’s going to remain one of Alex Smith’s top options for as long as he can stay on the field. The Redskins might be required to throw the ball more in this matchup to keep pace with the Packers prolific offense, which could create even more opportunities for Reed to provide value.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – U.S. Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $4,900
DraftKings = $4,300

The Vikings defense had an impressive first game of the season against the 49ers, producing three sacks, three interceptions, a fumble recovery, and a touchdown. They had a much tougher task against the Packers on the road last week, even with Aaron Rodgers battling a knee injury. They managed to record three sacks but allowed 23 points in what was largely an average performance at best.

Things swing back in their favor for Week 3 against the Bills. The Bills are a team to target opposing defenses against just about every week. Josh Allen has already taken over at quarterback and although he was much better than Nathan Peterman was in Week 1, he is still in the early stages of his professional development. He also doesn’t have great skill players around him and could be without his best one in LeSean McCoy, who is dealing with a rib injury. Don’t overthink this one, roll with the Vikings at home.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 3 - TE/DEF/ST

George Kittle vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $5,800
DraftKings = $4,500

Kittle was a breakout candidate heading into this season based on his success after Jimmy Garoppolo took over as the 49ers quarterback last year. He got off to a great start, catching five of nine targets for 90 yards in Week 1. He entered Week 2 with a juicy matchup against the Lions, but he couldn’t cash in, catching two of four targets for 22 yards. The 49ers did race out to an early lead, so they didn’t have to throw the ball as much late in the game.

Kittle looks to get back on track Sunday in a game where scoring should be abundant. The 49ers may also get wide receiver Marquise Goodwin back from injury, which is good for Kittle since Goodwin would require a significant amount of attention from the Chiefs defense. Don’t get too discouraged after one poor week, Kittle has plenty of upside.

Will Dissly vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – CenturyLink Field
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $3,300

The Seahawks didn’t have much wide receiver depth, to begin with, then they lost Doug Baldwin to a knee injury. Dissly has been forced into a more prominent role, receiving five targets in both of the team’s first two games. He scored a touchdown in both games, as well, and posted 105 yards in Week 1.

Baldwin should be out again for Week 3, leaving Russell Wilson thin on options. Baldwin has received at least 100 targets in three straight seasons, so it’s going to take more than one player to make up for his loss. The Cowboys have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends through the first two weeks, making Dissly an intriguing option at such a cheap price on both sites.

Chicago Bears vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $3,500

Khalil Mack has had an instant impact on the Bears defense, leaving them with 10 sacks over the first two weeks. They’ve also recorded one interception, one fumble recovery, and one touchdown in both games, proving to be one of the most productive fantasy defenses, even if they do allow opponents to put some points on the board.

This matchup against the Cardinals couldn’t get much better. Sam Bradford has been an absolute disaster so far, throwing for 243 yards and two interceptions while still searching for his first touchdown. There has been some talk about getting David Johnson more involved and getting him the ball in situations where he can be successful, but with Bradford at the helm, this is not going to be an explosive offense. If you don’t want to use the Vikings, the Bears are another great option, especially at their reasonable price.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 3 - TE/DEF/ST

Jimmy Graham vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,900

Graham had his best game as a Packer in Week 2, hauling in six of eight targets for 95 yards. His day could have been even better had a touchdown reception not been nullified by a penalty committed by his offensive line. Even with his big performance, he’s still a risky play on a weekly basis. He had only two catches for eight yards Week 1 and has largely become a touchdown-dependent option the last couple of seasons. He’s not cheap, so it might be best to spend your money elsewhere.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
FanDuel = $4,700
DraftKings = $3,100

This is more about the other options available Sunday than it is about the Rams defense. They have certainly been stout and may have the most talented group of defenders in the league, especially in their secondary. The Chargers, on the other hand, have an explosive offense and have scored 59 points through the first two weeks. While I don’t expect them to have nearly as much success against the Rams, they could put up a couple of big plays. With the Vikings, Bears and even the Jaguars, who face the Titans possibly without Marcus Mariota, all facing much worse offenses, this might be a week to pass on the Rams.

NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football

by Chris Tierney - cstcst 0 Comments

*Chris Tierney – cstcst*

NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football

Welcome to Wild Card weekend! The stakes ramp up on Saturday as the 2018 edition of the NFL playoffs open in Kansas City on Saturday afternoon. There are some intriguing matchups this weekend which we’ll dive into each a little bit below. Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.

 

Tennessee at Kansas City (-8.5, 44)

NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Vegas Implied Final Score:

Kansas City 26
Tennessee 18

Key Injuries:

  • Demarco Murray has been ruled out meaning Derrick Henry will get the majority of touches out of the backfield for the Titans.
  • Albert Wilson was nicked up during the win over Denver but all signs point to him playing this week.

DFS Chalk:  Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Derrick Henry, Alex Smith, Chiefs Defense

DFS Value: Eric Decker, Delanie Walker, Albert Wilson, Corey Davis, Marcus Mariota

Kansas City has gotten well over the past four weeks after a four-game losing streak nearly derailed their season.  The teams they beat during this winning streak?  The Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins and Broncos.  One winning record out of the bunch.  The Titans also stumble into the playoffs having lost three of their final four.  Two of those came in Western time zones in hard fought games against Arizona and San Francisco, and they also dropped a close contest at home to the Rams before clinching this spot last week at home against Jacksonville.  This matchup looks evenly matched on paper and while chilly, the forecasted 28-degree weather is not awful for offensive players.

 

Atlanta at Los Angeles (-6.5, 48.5)

NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Vegas Implied Final Score:

Los Angeles 27.5
Atlanta 22

Key Injuries:

  • There are no injuries of significance to monitor in this game.

DFS Chalk: Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, Rams Defense, Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu

DFS Value: Sammy Watkins, DeVonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Austin Hooper

The biggest DFS decision of the week is whether to fade Todd Gurley, who finished the Regular Season as the top RB in Fantasy Football.  He is very expensive across all formats this weekend and has certainly earned his price tag.  He will feature on Saturday and his success or lack thereof will likely dictate GPP formats before Sunday games even kick off.  Early projected ownership reports have a majority not paying the massive price tag.  Personally, I’ve yet to decide which way I’ll end up going but this is likely the central decision to Wildcard DFS.  Gurley would need to hit the 25-30 point mark to return GPP value, which while doable, is hardly something to bank on.  The Rams defensive weakness is against the run game and I expect the Falcons to attempt to control the ball and play keep away from the Rams in this one.  The Rams are legit and are a very dangerous offense capable of taking what the defense gives them.

 

 

Carolina at New Orleans (-7, 48.5)

NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Las Vegas Implied Score:

New Orleans 27.25
Carolina 21.25

Key Injuries:

  • The Saints tight end situation is a bit murky, and while a complete potential flier, it might be worth paying attention to.

DFS Chalk: Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Greg Olsen, Michael Thomas

DFS Value: Cam Newton, Christian McCaffery, Ted Ginn, Mark Ingram

In our opinion, this sets up as the most interesting game on the weekend slate.  These two teams met the first weekend in December with New Orleans prevailing by 10 points.  In that game, the Saints ran for 148 yards and Brees threw for 269 yards with Kamara accounting for over 120 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns on 14 touches.  In that game, the Panthers defense was visibly frustrated with their inability to wrap up Kamara.  The Panthers will have one focus this week and that will be limiting and tackling the Saints lightning bolt offensive weapon.  That could open the rest of the field for Brees and his wideouts, which sure seems like a good GPP route.  Of course, the Panthers are a talented team very capable of winning and moving on here.  Cam is scrambling once again, which makes him an elite option.  While the Panthers are lacking at the WR position, Christian McCaffery and a healthy Greg Olsen make up for it.  This game is a coin flip and brings plenty of fantasy options with perhaps the best chance of ‘shooting out’.

 

 

Buffalo at Jacksonville (-9, 39.5)

NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Las Vegas Implied Score:

Jacksonville 23.80
Buffalo 16.30

DFS Chalk: LeSean McCoy (if healthy), Leonard Fournette, Jags defense

DFS Value: Kellan Cole, Blake Bortles, Dede Westbrook

LeSean McCoy is likely to give it a go on his bum ankle, and without his presence, the Bills are a tremendous longshot to even threaten the Jaguars in this spot.  Many are down on the Jags after a rough finish that saw them drop two in a row to end the season.  The Jags are an interesting team heading into the postseason and they do two things well that win Championships.  They have the best talent on defense in the AFC and can run the football.  The game script here should allow Fournette and the Jags defense to shine all while awarding a home fan base that hasn’t seen a home playoff game in a decade.  On paper, the Jags sure look like a team that no one wants to host in the Divisional Round.

 

OVERALL:

NFL DFS: Best Lineup Stacks for Wild Card Playoff Weekend DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab.com

Top DFS Chalk Selections: Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville, Todd Gurley, RB, LA Rams, Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City

Top GPP / Value Selections: Christian McCaffery, RB, Carolina, Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta, Austin Hooper, TE, Atlanta, Eric Decker, WR, Tennessee

Top GPP Contrarian Stack: Cam Newton, Christian McCaffery, Greg Olsen

 

Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations – Wild Card Weekend

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner*

Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations – Wild Card Weekend

 

The NFL regular season is over, with your season-long fantasy leagues in the rearview mirror along with it. Luckily the fun continues in DFS with the Wild Card Weekend. While there are far fewer options to choose from for your entry, that doesn’t mean there still aren’t some great players to pick from. Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.

**QUARTERBACKS**

Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations - Wild Card Weekend

Jared Goff vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
DraftKings = $6,700
FanDuel = $8,500

Goff made major strides in his second season in the NFL, throwing for 3,804 yards and 28 touchdowns. Not only did he improve his completion percentage by over seven percent to 62.1%, but his seven interceptions in 15 games this season matched his entire total in only seven games last year. He finished off the season strong, throwing at least two touchdowns in five straight games. There are few easy defenses when you get to the playoffs, but the Falcons have trouble creating turnovers as their eight interceptions during the regular season were tied for the third-fewest in the league. It’s tough to count on such a young quarterback making his first playoff appearance, but it’s hard not to rely on Goff considering his excellent regular season.

Alex Smith vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
DraftKings = $6,300
FanDuel = $7,800

While he had a bit of an up and down season, Smith finished with a career-high 26 touchdown passes. He continued to do an excellent job limiting turnovers, throwing only five interceptions. He also threw for at least 4,000 passing yards for the first time in his career, finishing with 4,042 despite sitting out Week 17. The Titans were prone to allowing scores through the air this season, finishing tied for the fifth-most passing touchdowns allowed (27) in the league. That mark was also the most of any team that made the playoffs. While Smith’s upside may not be as high as Goff’s, he might be one of the safer bets to reach value this week.

Blake Bortles vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – EverBank Field
DraftKings = $6,000
FanDuel = $7,600

That’s right, Blake Bortles lead his team to the playoffs. Bortles saw both his passing yards and touchdown passes decline this season, but he also attempted 102 fewer passes than he did last year. It made a big difference in the turnover department, throwing a career-low 13 interceptions. He played poorly Week 17 against the Titans but had thrown at least two touchdown passes in four straight games entering that contest. He’s been excellent at home this season, throwing 15 touchdowns and only five interceptions at EverBank Field compared to only six touchdowns and eight interceptions on the road. Viable cheap options are hard to come by in the playoffs, but Bortles can save you a few dollars while still having upside.

**RUNNING BACKS**

Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations - Wild Card Weekend

Leonard Fournette vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – EverBank Field
DraftKings = $7,400
FanDuel = $8,100

Fournette received a lot of hype heading into this season and did not disappoint, rushing for 1,040 yards and nine touchdowns in only 13 games. He showed he can be a weapon in the passing game as well, hauling in 36 of 48 targets for 302 yards. The Bills have struggled to defend the run this season, allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (124.6) and the most rushing touchdowns (22) in the league. At this reasonable price, Fournette is almost a must-start against the Bills.

Devonta Freeman vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
DraftKings = $6,300
FanDuel = $7,000

Freeman did not finish the regular season on a high note, rushing for 59 yards on 22 carries over the final two weeks combined. He salvaged Week 17 by posting nine receptions for 85 yards and one touchdown against the Carolina Panthers, marking the second time in the last three weeks that he had at least 69 receiving yards. He has split backfield duties with Tevin Coleman this year, limiting his value to an extent. The Rams did finish the regular season tied for the fourth-most rushing touchdowns allowed (15) in the league, so Freeman is an option to consider in a potentially high-scoring game.

Derrick Henry vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
DraftKings = $6,000
FanDuel = $6,500

DeMarco Murray (knee) sat out Week 17, leaving Henry as the featured running back. While he only rushed for 51 yards on 28 carries, the volume was the key. He turned his one reception into 66 yards and a touchdown, making for an excellent final line. The Chiefs allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game (118.1) and were tied for the fourth-most rushing touchdowns allowed (15) in the league, leaving Henry with great upside at this price. Murray has already been ruled out for this game, making Henry one of the best value plays this week.

**WIDE RECEIVERS**

Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations - Wild Card Weekend

Michael Thomas vs. Carolina Panthers
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Superdome
DraftKings = $7,800
FanDuel = $8,300

Thomas had an excellent season for the Saints, finishing in the top-six in the league in targets (149), receptions (104) and receiving yards (1,245). He played well in his previous two games against the Panthers this year, posting at least 70 receiving yards and one touchdown in both contests. To no surprise, he received at least eight targets in both games. Based on the volume he receives on a weekly basis, Thomas is an excellent option for your entry.

Tyreek Hill vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
DraftKings = $6,800
FanDuel = $7,700

Hill’s big play ability is unquestioned, finishing the season tied for the tenth-highest yards per reception average (15.8). He received 105 targets overall, which was second most on the team to Travis Kelce (123). The next closest wide receiver was Albert Wilson with 63 targets, so Hill is clearly Smith’s favorite weapon amongst wideouts. With his big-play ability and heavy volume, Hill has the potential to put up a monster game any given week. The price is right to roll with him based on the Titans struggles to defend the pass.

Mohamed Sanu vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stadium – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
DraftKings = $5,600
FanDuel = $5,800

While Julio Jones gets all the hype in Atlanta, Sanu had 67 receptions on 96 targets this season. He also finished with five receiving touchdowns, which were two more than Jones had. The amount of targets Sanu gets gives a boost to his value as he averaged at least 10.5 yards per reception for the fourth straight season. The Rams scored the most points in the NFL this year, so the Falcons may have to let it fly to keep up. Sanu’s reasonable price makes him in an intriguing option in the first round of the playoffs.

Eric Decker vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
DraftKings = $3,500
FanDuel = $4,800

The Titans passing attack has been terrible this season but Decker gets his opportunities to produce, receiving at least five targets in each of the final five games of the regular season. The problem is the bad Titans offense doesn’t give many chances to score, hauling in only one touchdown pass this year. This week presents an interesting opportunity for Decker as the Chiefs tied for the fourth-most net passing yards allowed per game (247) in the league. There aren’t a lot of really cheap options to choose from, but Decker might be worth a look in tournament play.

**TIGHT ENDS**

Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations - Wild Card Weekend

Travis Kelce vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
DraftKings = $7,100
FanDuel = $7,700

Kelce is the best option on the slate at tight end and it’s not even close. He continues to get tremendous volume, seeing at least seven targets in seven of his last eight games. While volume has been there throughout his time with the Chiefs, he cashed it in this season for a career-high eight touchdowns. The Titans had trouble defending tight ends this year, averaging the tenth-most yards to the position (853). If you can work him into your budget, he’s a safe option for production.

Charles Clay vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Stadium – EverBank Field
DraftKings = $4,000
FanDuel = $5,500

No one is going to confuse Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor as being an elite passing quarterback. He didn’t throw for at least 300 yards in any game this season and posted eight games with less than 200 passing yards. When he does throw the ball, Clay is one of his favorite options. Clay has received at least eight targets in each of the last three games, cashing that in for 15 receptions and 169 receiving yards. Viable cheap options at tight end aren’t easy to come by with so few games this week, but Clay is an option if you can’t pay up for Kelce.

**DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS**

Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Recommendations - Wild Card Weekend

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills
Stadium – EverBank Field
DraftKings = $4,400
FanDuel = $5,600

The Jaguars defense had an elite fantasy season, finishing in the top five in sacks, interceptions, fumble recoveries and points allowed. To top it all off, they scored eight touchdowns. They get a great matchup this week against a Bills team that finished with the 11th-fewest points scored and tied for the seventh-most sacks allowed during the regular season. Pay up for the Jaguars in the Wild Card Round.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
DraftKings = $3,400
FanDuel = $4,800

Speaking of teams with struggling quarterbacks, Marcus Mariota took a major step backward in 2017. After throwing 26 touchdown passes and only nine interceptions last year, Mariota threw 13 touchdowns compared to 15 interceptions this season. Mariota really struggled on the road, throwing only five touchdown passes compared to 11 interceptions. If you want to save a little money at defense, the Chiefs are also primed to provide value.

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

by Chris Durell 0 Comments

*Chris Durell*

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

Tier 1

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

Only three options in the first tier but the decision will not be an easy one should be running just one lineup this week. Todd Gurley trails Kareem Hunt by just 13 yards rushing this season but has 190 more receiving yards and eight more total touchdowns giving him 25.1 DraftKings points per game this season and right in the middle of the league MVP talks. He is coming off a monster game where he rushed for 152 yards and three touchdowns and also added another touchdown through the air leading the Rams to a huge victory over their division rivals, the Seahawks. Kareem Hunt is also coming off a big game last week with 155 yards rushing and a touchdown and also added nine receptions for 51 yards and a touchdown through the air. It seems the Chiefs just needed to get Andy Reid away from making play calls for Hunt to get back on track as that is now back to back weeks with 100+ yards rushing.

Outside of Week 14 where he got injured, Alvin Kamara has been extremely consistent this season with seven games with 20 or more DraftKings points and sits with 1,336 all-purpose yards and 12 touchdowns. Looking at the matchups, all three of their opponents rank in the top third of the league in rushing yards per game allowed but Tennessee is the only one of the three to hold opponents under 100 yards per game and they also rank 4th overall when looking at DraftKings points per game to running backs.

The game script definitely favors Gurley, however, and he has proven to be near matchup proof at this point. When looking at DraftKings points per game allowed, Hunt has the best matchup of the three as the Dolphins rank 28th in that category and they have also allowed the most rushing yards per game(109.9). The DVOA ranks tell another story as the Falcons rank 30th in that category against the rush which is great news for Kamara who is averaging 6.6 yards per carry this season. The only knock on Kamara is that he is sharing a backfield with Mark Ingram who is also having a heck of a season. Using FanShareSports early in the week, Hunt and Gurley are neck and neck at the top and should command ownership in this tier and for me, I will be running about 45% of each with a little mix of Kamara in some contrarian lineups.

Top Targets in this Tier – Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt

Tier 2

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

The second tier brings us two of the six running backs in the league who have already broke 1,000 yards rushing this season. I mentioned in the last tier how the Saints have been splitting the reps almost down the middle between rookie Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram and both are having tremendous season leading the Saints to the #1 overall DVOA rank in rushing. While the Falcons rank 12th when looking at DraftKings points allowed to running backs, they have been much worse on the DVOA scale ranking 30th this season. The Saints are currently 5.5 point favorites in a game with a 52.5 Vegas Total which could lead to another run-heavy game script for the Saints. While the game script for LeSean McCoy is not in his favor as the Bills are 11.5 point dogs to the Patriots, he has a lot going for him in this matchup. Both teams rank Top 10 in pace and McCoy always gets his share of touches in the offense regardless of game script. The Patriots have also been pretty bad against running backs as well as they have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game(122.3) and rank dead last in DVOA vs. the rush.

Up next, we have two elite receivers facing each other this week. The bad news for both of them is that both teams rank Top 12 in receiving yards per game and Top 15 in DVOA vs. the pass and both have elite corners in Marshon Lattimore(NO) and Desmond Trufant(ATL) who rank near the top of PFF’s cornerback rankings. The good news is that both receivers are getting targeted a ton in their respective offenses with Julio at 9.0 per game while Thomas is getting 9.7 per game. Julio leads with 1,215 yards while Thomas has 1,085 but Thomas has the slight edge in DraftKings points per game thanks to scoring two more touchdowns.  This game is projected to be a shootout and the only game this week with a Vegas Total exceeding 50 so I don’t think you can go wrong with either here in this spot.

Top Targets in this Tier – Micheal Thomas, Mark Ingram

Tier 3

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

Gronk returned from his one-game suspension last week and went off again posting 168 yards on nine receptions. That gives him back to back weeks with 100 or more receiving yards and three straight weeks with 25 or more DraftKings points. I wouldn’t go as far to say he gets a great matchup this week as the Bills rank 12th in DVOA vs. the pass but have been much worse against tight ends than wideouts as they rank 22nd in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position vs. 9th against wideouts. Gronk is pretty matchup proof as well. The other tight end in this tier, Travis Kelce, sits second to Gronk in receiving yards this season with 991 but has the same amount of touchdowns with seven. He has also slightly out-targeted Gronk this season with 8.1 per game but more importantly this week, he gets a way better matchup. Not only do the Dolphins rank 27th in DVOA vs. the pass but they have been terrible vs. tight ends ranking 28th overall in DraftKings points allowed to the position.

We also get two runnings backs in this tier who have been very productive lately. Kenyan Drake took over the #1 role in the Dolphins backfield when Jay Ajayi was traded to Philly and has heated up lately with 100 yards or a touchdown in four straight games for an average of 22.4 DraftKings points per game. The matchup is a bit tricky this week as the Chiefs do rank 31st in DVOA vs. the rush but 11th in DraftKings points per game to the position. The biggest knock on Drake this week could be the game script as the Dolphins are currently 10 point road underdogs and projected for just over 16 points. Drake will undoubtedly be the lowest owned player in this tier. Melvin Gordon, despite only breaking 100 yds twice this season, has been very productive ranking 7th in rushing yards (931) and has topped 75 yards in three straight games and has scored a touchdown in back to back games. The matchup is so-so as the Jets rank 13th in DVOA vs. the rush and 14th in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs but he should get plenty of volume as the Chargers are 6.5 point favorites and projected to score around 25 points this week.

Top Targets in this Tier – Travis Kelce, Melvin Gordon

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

Tier 4

 Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

All four quarterbacks in this tier are at home and all of them beside Drew Brees are huge double-digit favorites. Looking at each player’s last four weeks performance, it has been Cam Newton and Alex Smith who have been far and away the best quarterbacks as both are averaging over 21 DraftKings points per game. Smith’s performance is a bit skewed as he had a huge week 13 scoring 40.6 DK points but didn’t exceed 20 in either of the other three weeks. Cam has been much more consistent with performances of 31.4, 15.5, 20.4, and 17.5 and he has also topped 20 DK points in 50% of his starts this season. He adds a ton of value using his rushing ability and leads all quarterbacks with 643 yards on the ground with five rushes of 20+ yards and five touchdowns.

Despite struggling recently with just two touchdowns over his last three games, Tom Brady still leads the league in passing while averaging 297 yards per game and trails on Carson Wentz and Russell Wilson in touchdown passes. As for Drew Brees, he has not thrown for 300 yards in four straight weeks and has only done so three times this season while throwing for three touchdowns just once and most of that can be contributed to the elite run game that Saints possess. When it comes down to matchups, Cam Newton clearly gets the best of them facing a Bucs team that has allowed a league-high 271.3 yards and ranks 29th in DVOA vs. the pass. Next best matchup goes to Alex Smith who faces a Dolphins team that sits mid-pack when looking at yards per game allowed (222.6) but ranks 27th in DVOA vs. the pass. Of the four, Tom Brady has the worst matchup on paper going against a Bills defense that ranks 12th in DVOA vs. the pass and 4th overall in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position.

Top Target in this Tier – Cam Newton, Alex Smith

Tier 5

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

Tier 5 gives us four quarterbacks who are all playing on the road this week and all but Matt Ryan are favorites. Matthew Stafford leads the way this season with 18.8 DraftKings points per game but it has been Phillip Rivers crushing value lately averaging 21.6 DraftKings points per game over his last four thanks to posting 20+ in three of those games. No other quarterback in this tier has more than one and Matt Ryan has zero after back to back performances of under 10 DraftKings points.

Rivers and Goff have the best matchups of the four as the Jets rank 22nd in DVOA vs. the pass and 27th in DK points per game allowed while the Titans rank 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and 17th in DK points per game allowed to the position. Ryan gets the worst matchup in this tier facing the Saints who rank 4th in DVOA vs. the pass and 13thin DK points allowed while Stafford’s matchup is in the middle with the Bengals ranking 18th in DVOA vs. the pass and 11th in DK points allowed to the position but have definitely been trending down lately allowing quarterbacks to score an average of 21.1 DK points per game.

Top Targets in this Tier – Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford

Tier 6

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

Three of the four wide receivers (Hill, Funchess, Cooks) teams in this tier are double-digit favorites which could work against their game scripts a little bit but it will be hard to avoid some of the matchups. For instance, Devin Funchess faces a Bucs team that has allowed the most DraftKings points per game this season. He could also be lower owned here coming off a one-catch week for just 19 yards. The concern Funchess this week is the shoulder injury that has been nagging him as he was held out of practice on Wednesday. If you are looking for consistency then don’t overlook Tyreke Hill in this spot as he has tallied double-digit DK points in six straight and eight of his last 10 games, twice going over 25 points. Over the past four weeks, he has also seen an uptick in his targets(8 per game) and sees a matchup vs. the Dolphins who rank 27th in DVOA vs. the pass.

On the flip side, Brandin Cooks has been trending down lately averaging just six targets per game and has exceeded 75 yards just once in that time. Robert Woods made his return last week after being held out for three weeks due to injury and looked catching six of his seven targets for 45 yards and a touchdown. The Rams are 6.5 point favorites and although Todd Gurley has been red hot, they may need to throw a bit more as the Titans have been much worse against the pass this season ranking 24th in DVOA and 23rd in DraftKings points per game to wideouts.

Both running backs in this tier are in great spots this week as their teams (Panthers, Patriots) are both double-digit home favorites. Dion Lewis is likely in for a bit bigger role this week with Rex Burkhead out a couple weeks with a knee sprain. That is good news considering he has already been getting a nice run with double-digit carries in eight of his last nine games. He also gets an elite matchup vs. the Bills who have allowed 122 rushing yards per game (8th most) and the most DraftKings points per game to running backs this season. Christian McCaffrey leads all running backs with an average of 7.2 targets per game and has been a PPR star with double-digit fantasy points in 11 of his 14 games, going over 20 DK points five times.

Top Targets in this Tier – Dion Lewis, Christian McCaffrey, Tyreke Hill

Tier 7

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

I will start with the wideouts in this tier and not only does Jarvis Landry lead them all with an average of 16.3 DK points per game this season, he also gets the best matchup this week. He will be facing the Chiefs who have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game and while they rank 17th in DVOA vs. pass, they rank 30th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wide receivers. You also never have to worry about usage with Landry as he is one of just three players in 2017 to average double-digit targets each week (10.3).

The Bengals top wideout, A.J. Green, is not far behind averaging 8.8 targets per game and has been trending up lately with 10 targets per game over his last four but is coming off a down week where Xavier Rhodes shut him down with just two catches for 30 yards. Things don’t get any easier for Green this week as he will likely see a ton of Darius Slay who ranks as a Top 10 corner on Pro Football Focus.

On the other side of the ball, we have Marvin Jones Jr. who has been extremely consistent lately recording double-digit fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games with 20 or more in four of those games. While the Bengals rank 3rd in DK points per game allowed to wideouts, they have struggled a ton lately allowing a 100-yard receiver in three straight weeks (four total). Josh Gordon has been targeted 27 times in his three games since returning to the Browns and scored once but has yet to have that monster game we are all waiting for, maybe it’s the fact he is now playing sober (boom).

With Tevin Coleman out last week, Devonta Freeman got 24 carries but wasn’t overly impressive with 91 yards (3.8 per carry) but saved his fantasy day with a touchdown. This week it appears Coleman will be back in the mix which will limit Freeman’s carries but the Falcons are currently underdogs which could help him with some targets in the passing game. Jordan Howard has been up and down all season with four performances of 20+ DK points but has also put up six performances under 10 DK points. This week he faces a Browns team that ranks #1 in DVOA vs. the rush but have been trending down lately. The game script could definitely be in his favor as the Bears are currently 6.5 point favorites.

Top Targets in this Tier – Jarvis Landry, Marvin Jones Jr, Jordan Howard

Tier 8

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 16

While Marvin Jones has been the consistent piece of the Lions receiving core, Golden Tate has been hit and miss. He has tallied double-digit DK points twice in his last four games but also posted six DK points in the other two games. I mentioned the matchup earlier vs. the Bengals who have allowed four 100-yard receivers in the last three weeks so Tate is fully in play this week.

Robby Anderson was limited in Wednesday’s practice and even if he plays, he should be avoided as he is likely shadowed by PFF’s #1 ranked corner in Casey Hayward. Demaryius Thomas is on my radar this week and has been fairly productive lately catching 20 of his 38 targets for 207 yards and a touchdown. The problem this week is the matchup vs. the Redskins who rank 8th in DVOA vs. the pass and 8th in DK points per game allowed to wideouts.

Cooper Kupp has not been the most consistent fantasy option this season and a lot of that has to do with Todd Gurley running over defenses but Kupp is in a nice spot this week vs. the Titans who rank 24th in DVOA vs. the pass and 23rd in DK points allowed to wideouts. With Julio Jones normally getting a ton of the opposing defenses attention, Mohamed Sanu has thrived on the other side lately with 20+ DK points in two of his last three games. Stay tuned for the injury status, however, as he was limited on Wednesday with a knee injury.

Bengals rookie running back, Joe Mixon, was a full participant in practice on Wednesday and likely to be cleared by the league to return this week. Should he get back on the field, he gets a nice matchup vs. the Lions who have allowed 111 yards rushing per game and rank 29th overall in DK points per game allowed to running backs.

Top Targets in this Tier – Golden Tate, Cooper Kupp, Joe Mixon(if he starts)

 

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!

 

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 14

by Chris Durell 0 Comments

*Chris Durell*

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 14

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 14

Tier 1

While the Chiefs picked up their fourth loss in a row, both Travis Kelce (4 of 8, 94 yards, 2 TD) and Tyreke Hill (6 of 9, 185 yards, 2 TD) had monster fantasy days last week vs. the Jets. This week they get another plus matchup vs. a Raiders defense that has given up the 10th most passing yards per game (241.1) and rank dead last in DVOA vs. the pass in 2017. They share the targets from Alex Smith pretty equally but I favor Kelce slightly here as the Raiders rank 15th in DraftKings points per game to wide receivers but 26th vs. tight ends. Adam Thielen sits sixth overall in targets per game(9.3) this season and has been incredibly consistent with seven games with double-digit fantasy points and six with 15+ points but draws a tough matchup against the Panthers defense that ranks eighth in DVOA vs. the pass. The game also has one of the lowest totals(41) of the week. All things considered, Thielen could be the low owned play in this tier. Finally, we have LeSean McCoy who had another productive week as he posted 93 yards on 15 carries and his third straight double-digit fantasy week. At the time of writing this, there is no Vegas total yet but I would fully expect the Bills to be at least three-point home favorites vs. the Colts giving McCoy a shot at a high workload this week.

Top Targets in this Tier – Travis Kelce, LeSean McCoy

Tier 2

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 14

Marvin Jones easily gets the best matchup in this tier facing the Bucs who have allowed the second-most passing yards per game (267.3) and rank dead last in DraftKings points per game to wideouts. The issue this week is the status of his quarterback Matthew Stafford who left last weeks game with a hand injury after being stepped on. If Stafford is back behind center I like Jones a lot but will probably fade if it’s backup Jake Rudock taking the snaps. I have strong feeling A.J. Green will be the chalk in this tier coming off a big game vs. the Steelers on Monday night where he caught seven of his 16 targets for 77 yards and two touchdowns (could have been three if not for a bad penalty). He has now caught at least one touchdown in three of his last four and seven of his last 10 games. Jameis Winston returned to action last week and I was expecting a big game from Evans who has been a target monster all season but it never came to fruition as Evans only caught two of his six targets for 33 yards. Evans will be in a tough spot this week as he will likely draw shadow coverage from Darius Slay who ranks as the #12 cornerback on PFF. If he was somehow able to avoid complete shadow coverage, I think he could be a sneaky play as the Lions have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game(245.3) this season. Michael Crabtree returns from his one-game suspension this week and gets a plus matchup against the Chiefs who rank 24th overall in DVOA vs. the pass and 31st in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. The Raiders are also four-point underdogs so the game script could be perfect for Derek Carr to see 35+ pass attempts.

Top Targets in this Tier – A.J. Green, Michael Crabtree

Tier 3

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 14

Kareem Hunt was once again unable to take advantage of a plus matchup and will easily be the lowest owned option in this tier as I am sure most people(including myself) are tired of waiting for the return of his early-season success. Devante Adams has been Brett Hundley’s top target but the passing game was not needed last week in a 26-20 win over the Bucs as the Packers rushed for 199 yards and picked up two defensive touchdowns. Look for Adams to get back on track this week against the Browns who rank 26th in DVOA vs. the pass. I talked about Marvin Jones in the last tier and the same sentiment goes for Golden Tate. He has a great matchup against the Bucs but at this time it is uncertain if Matthew Stafford will be back with an injured throwing hand. Stay tuned for more news. Josh Gordon made his return to the football field last week and was impressive considering he sat out nearly three years. He promptly made a ridiculous catch along the sideline and ended up catching four of his team-high 11 targets for 85 yards. This week he faces a Green Bay team that has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game(242.9), rank 21st in DVOA vs. the pass, and rank 29th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts.

Top Targets in this Tier – Devante Adams, Josh Gordon

Tier 4

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 14

I mentioned Matthew Stafford in previous tiers when talking about Marvin Jones and Golden Tate and the update here is that he was limited Wednesday with his bruised hand. He is one of the toughest players in the league and a must-win for the team so I expect to see him on the field but will be avoiding the Lions offense for fantasy. Next up we have a huge matchup between the Vikings and Panthers and very similar value coming from both quarterbacks. Both Cam Newton and Case Keenum have put up 17+ DraftKings points in four straight games but Cam has displayed a little more upside with a 35 point ceiling. A lot of that has to do with his ability to run the ball, especially around the endzone. Both defenses are stout and rank Top 10 in fantasy points against the quarterback and with playoff and top seeds on the line, I fully expect a low-scoring defensive battle on Sunday so neither QB is that intriguing for fantasy. Without Amari Cooper or Michael Crabtree last week, Derek Carr was very serviceable(22 of 36 for 287 and 1 TD) leading the Raiders to a big win over the Giants. He now gets both his receivers back and will face a Chiefs team that has given up the fifth-most passing yards per game(252.8) and rank 26th overall when looking at DraftKings points per game to the position. Finally, we have Jimmy Garoppolo who gets the best matchup of all the options in this tier as the Texans rank dead last in DraftKings points per game allowed to the quarterback. The only issue here is that it’s his second career start and he lacks options in the receiving game.

Top Target in this Tier – Derek Carr

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 14

Tier 5

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 14

Starting at the top Dak Prescott has been the best option on paper in this tier with five games of 20+ DraftKings points and has thrown for multiple touchdowns seven times. The issue has been the loss of Ezekiel Elliot as he has only done it once since losing his star running back. He does get a nice matchup this week vs. a Giants team that has given up the third-most passing yards per game(260.2) and rank 30th in DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks. I fully expect 250+ passing yards and multiple touchdown passes as the Cowboys still sit in a position to grab a wildcard spot. Next up is my other top option under center this week with Jameis Winston who returned after a three-week absence. He looked pretty darn good completing 21 of 32 passes for 270 yards and two touchdowns. He did this without really getting much from Mike Evans(2 of 6 for 33 yards) and I think he will be going back to his top option this week with a ton of volume. Believe it or not, Andy Dalton has arguably been the most consistent option in this tier lately with multiple touchdowns in four straight and six of his last seven starts. The only issue is the upside is limited as he thrown for 300+ yards and topped 20 fantasy points just once this season. I don’t really have strong feelings for any of the bottom three options but if I had to choose one of them it would be Deshone Kizer who now has the services of Josh Gordon who made his return last week and was heavily targeted and delivered with 85 yards. Despite being inconsistent and inaccurate (52.5% completions), Kizer has shown some upside with his legs and topped 20 fantasy points twice in his last four starts. This week he faces a Green Bay team that has given up the seventh-most passing yards per game(242.9) and rank 19th in DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks.

Top Targets in this Tier – Jameis Winston, Deshone Kizer

Tier 6

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 14

If you are looking for volume, it will be impossible to ignore what Evan Engram has been doing. Over the last seven games, he has tallied 59 targets and recorded 15 or more fantasy points five times with a season-high 22.9 points last week with Geno Smith under center. This week he gets Eli Manning back and with Sterling Shepard banged up, should once again see lots of volume. Christian McCaffrey should also see a ton of volume this week for two reasons. First of all, Jonathan Stewart is banged up(toe, ankle, foot) and didn’t practice Wednesday. Second, the Vikings defense should have a nice handle on the passing game downfield meaning we could see Cam dump it off to the running back quite a bit this week. Lamar Miller has been a bit of a disappointment from an upside standpoint this season but has displayed a consistent floor with 50+ rushing yards in all but one game and double-digit DraftKings points in all but two games this season. He gets a near elite matchup this week vs. the 49ers who have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game(123.9) and rank 30th in DraftKings points per game allowed to running backs. Jamaal Williams has taken over as the Packers #1 back lately with 20+ rushing attempts in three of his last four games and broke the 100-yard mark last week vs. the Bucs. He has also scored in back to back games. The matchup is a downgrade this week as the Browns have actually been really good against the rush as they are one of just nine teams to allow under 100 yards per game for the season. Alfred Morris has also done a fine job as a backup who has stepped in due to the suspension to Ezekiel Elliot. He is coming off his best game of the season last week when he received 27 rushing attempts and posted 127 yards and a touchdown. He will likely see the same kind of volume this week against a Giants defense that has allowed a league-high 130.7 yards per game on the ground.

Top Targets in this Tier – Evan Engram, Alfred Morris, Christian McCaffrey

Tier 7

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 14

A couple things stand out in this tier starting with the matchup for Devin Funchess. He will be shadowed for most of the game by Xavier Rhodes who is coming off a terrific game against the Falcons as he completely shut down Julio Jones. The other note here is the that Amari Cooper cleared the concussion protocol but still missed Wednesday’s practice due to an ankle injury and is still listed as questionable. If he were to suit up and get on the field, I like him for a low owned option. Carlos Hyde does not get the greatest matchup as the Texans have allowed the 10th fewest rushing yards per game and rank 4th in DraftKings points allowed to backs but he does have somewhat of a safe floor as he has been targeted a ton lately with 49 over his last six games. He has also put up double-digit fantasy points in nine of his 12 games this season and 20 or more four times. Marshawn Lynch is another running back on my radar this week as he is coming off his first 100-yard game of the season and he has scored in three of his last four games. He also gets a plus matchup vs. the Chiefs who have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (129.4).

Top Targets in this Tier – Marshawn Lynch, Carlos Hyde

Tier 8

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 14

The hamstring injury for Sterling Shepard is something to monitor as Sunday approaches as he did not practice on Wednesday. If he suits up he gets a nice matchup vs. the Cowboys who rank 30th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. Jordan Howard failed to bounce back last week as he tallied just 38 yards on the ground but gets another nice matchup to get back on the horse facing a Bengals defense that has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game(123.8) and ranks 22nd in DraftKings points per game to running backs. The only issue here might be getting a score as this game has the lowest Vegas total of the week(38). Duke Johnson let us down last week with just three DK points but has been a consistent floor play all season with eight double-digit DK point games thanks to his target share in the offense. The Vikings running backs have a tough matchup this week facing a Panthers team who has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game(88.6) so I would lean McKinnon who leads the way in the passing game between him and Latavius Murray with an average of 4.5 per game on the season. Both tight ends get plus matchups this week as the Bills rank 24th and the Giants 31st in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position. I lean Jack Doyle here as he comes in ahead with 6.8 targets per game to Witten’s 5.7 and Doyle has also tallied double-digit DK points in four of his last six games.

Top Targets in this Tier – Jordan Howard, Jack Doyle, Duke Johnson

 

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!

 

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 13

by Chris Durell 0 Comments

*Chris Durell*

Daily Fantasy DraftKings Pickem Strategy Advice Week 13

 

 

Tier 1

As it does every week, the first tier presents some very tough decisions. DeAndre Hopkins leads the way with 21.3 DraftKings points per game this season while averaging a crazy 11.4 targets per game, trailing only Antonio Brown in that category. Despite losing his star quarterback, Hopkins is also just one of four wideouts with 1,000 or more yards this season and since Watson went down in week 8 has gained 75 or more yards in all four games with 100 or more twice. Hopkins also gets the best matchup of the three wideouts facing a Titans team that ranks 24th in DVOA vs. pass and 26th in DK points per game allowed to the position. Sticking with the wideouts, the other target monster in this tier has been Adam Thielen who is tied for fourth with 9.7 per game and is one of those four wideouts with 1,000 or more receiving yards this season. The only issue for the Thielen and the Vikings passing attack is the Falcons defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards per game(207.9) and DK points per game to allowed to wideouts. Brandin Cooks has only seen double-digit targets once this season but has been coming on strong recently with 74 or more yards in three straight games and has scored a touchdown in back to back games. Cooks also gets a tough matchup this week vs. the Bills defense that has held opponents under 200 yards passing in three of their last four games and rank 11thin DVOA vs. the pass overall but the good news is that Cooks has the GOAT, Tom Brady, throwing him passes. Next up, we have Leonard Fournette who has shown us signs of dominance with four 100+ yard games this season and signs of being shut down as he has been held under 50 yards three including twice in the last three weeks. This week he should most definitely be on your radar as the Jags are at home vs. a Colts team that has been decent vs. the run ranked 11th in DVOA but has allowed the seventh-most DK points per game to running backs thanks to 572 yards allowed through the air(4th worst).

Top Targets in this Tier – Leonard Fournette, Brandin Cooks

Tier 2

I am going to start with the tight ends here in the second tier. We have two elite options in Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce but they are in completely different situations. Gronk is coming off a big week where he caught five of his eight targets for 82 yards and scored two touchdowns while Kelce was a product of a struggling Chiefs offense as he caught three of four targets for just 39 yards last week. They both get decent matchups vs. teams allowing 11 or more DK points per game to the position but Kelce gets the slight edge as the Jets have been worse overall ranking 21st in DVOA vs. the pass while the Bills rank 11th. Ownership will definitely lean towards Gronk here because of last week’s numbers and while a player’s past performance vs. a team is somewhat irrelevant as players and systems change over the years, this stat is just amazing to look at (via @evansilva).

After the tight ends, we have running back LeSean Mccoy who has a nice matchup vs. the Patriots who have allowed 115.1 rush yards per game and rank 29th in DVOA vs. the rush. The game script isn’t exactly in his favor as the Bills are 7.5 point dogs but and even worse, McCoy’s targets have been going down lately with five or less in four straight games including two weeks where he saw just one target. Despite leading all players in this tier with 17.2 DK points per week, he will likely be the lowest owned and makes a contrarian option. Wideout Mike Evans has been a target monster all season, with or without Jameis Winston, and has received double-digits in four of his last five games. He has tallied 75 or more yards receiving in five of his 10 games this season but has failed to break the 100-yard mark to this point. The good news is that quarterback Jameis Winston has resumed throwing and could make the start this week vs. the Packers who have allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game, rank 22nd in DVOA vs. the pass, and have allowed the second-most DK points per game to wideouts.

Top Targets in this Tier – Rob Gronkowski, Mike Evans

Tier 3

I was all over Kareem Hunt last week in a great bounce-back spot and he continued to disappoint fantasy owners with 11 carries for 17 yards. That makes six straight weeks without a 100-yard game and eight straight games without a touchdown. While the matchup seems decent facing the Jets who are allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game(120.4) it isn’t the greatest from a fantasy perspective as they rank 8th overall in DK points per game allowed to running backs as they have done well limiting the touchdowns. Tevin Coleman has been excellent lately with touchdowns in five straight games but will not only see his backfield partner, Devonta Freeman, back on the field this week but will also face a tough Vikings defense that has allowed the least DraftKings points per game to running backs. Jordan Howard might see some lower than normal ownership this week after a brutal game against the Eagles where he rushed for just six yards, albeit the Bears were trailing the entire game. He gets an elite matchup against the 49ers who have given up the third-most rushing yards per game(129.5) and rank dead last in DK points per game allowed to running backs.

If you are looking to go the wide receiver route in this tier, there are two excellent options in Davante Adams and Robbie Anderson. Anderson has been incredibly consistent with at least one touchdown in five straight games and double-digit DraftKings points in six straight games. He faces a Chiefs defense that has fallen off big time this season(Eric Berry effect) and has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game(245.6) and have allowed the most DraftKings points per game to wideouts. Ever since Aaron Rodgers went down in Green Bay, Davante Adams has emerged as backup quarterback Brett Hundley’s favorite option as he leads the team in that time with 52 targets, three touchdowns, and three straight games with 80 or more yards. He gts an even better matchup than Anderson facing the Bucs who have allowed a league-high 284.6 passing yards per game and the most DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts.

Top Targets in this Tier – Jordan Howard, Robby Anderson

Tier 4

First of all, let’s touch on Matt Stafford who had his ankle rolled up on during the Thanksgiving game vs. the Vikings. He returned to the game but looked in pain but said this week it is feeling better. He will most likely play this week but gets the worst matchup of this group facing a Ravens team that has allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game(189.9) and also the second-fewest DraftKings points per game. Best to fade Stafford and the Lions this week. The next toughest matchup in this group is Matt Ryan who is coming off his third 300+ yard game of the season but will face a Vikings defense that has allowed the 11th fewest passing yards per game(214.9) and sixth-fewest DraftKings points per game allowed to the quarterback position.On the other side of the ball, we have one of the biggest surprises of the season in Case Keenum who has gotten better each week and has thrown for 280+ yards in four straight games with nine touchdowns. He also gets a tougher matchup on the road this week facing the Falcons defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards per game(207.9). Despite leading this tier in DraftKings points per game, Alex Smith is likely to be a contrarian play this week after struggling big time lately after an MVP-type start to the season. Over his last four games, he has averaged just 223.5 passing yards per game and thrown for just four touchdowns. The matchup is average as he faces a Jets team ranked in the middle of the pack in passing yards per game and 19th in DraftKings points per game. The positive for Smith is that he has two elite options in Travis Kelce and Tyreke Hill so I could definitely see a bounce back game here. Next up is Josh McCown coming off his biggest game of the year where he threw for 307 yards and three touchdowns and makes a terrific stack with Robby Anderson in the previous tier. The quarterback with the best matchup in this group is Marcus Mariota who faces a Texans defense that allows 243 passing yards per game(24th) and ranks dead last in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position. The issue with Mariota is that he has only topped 300 yards twice this season and he has also only thrown for multiple touchdowns twice.

Top Targets in this Tier – Josh McCown, Alex Smith

Tier 5

Let’s address the Tampa Bay quarterback situation right off the top. It will be Jameis Winston making his return to action this week after sitting out three straight games with a shoulder injury. This is definitely an upgrade for Mike Evans in the first tier and a great matchup as the Packers defense has allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game(244.1) and don’t have one cornerback ranked inside the Top 80 on the PFF rankings. It won’t be a safe option stacking Winston and Evans but the upside is through the roof. If you are not playing Winston in this tier the options are pretty thin and even riskier. Blake Bortles get a great matchup vs. the Colts who have allowed the third-most passing yards per game(266.3) but the Jags are big favorites and most likely won’t need Bortles to do much. Then we got Tyrod Taylor who lacks overall upside averaging just 184 passing yards per game but he does give us added value with his legs as he ranks third in rushing among quarterbacks with 302 yards and three touchdowns. The thing I like the most here is that Bills are underdogs and will need Taylor to likely throw or run a little bit more this week to keep up with Tom Brady and the Pats. Brett Hundley is also in a pretty nice spot this week in a tight spread at home vs. the Bucs and is coming off his best game since taking over for the injured Aaron Rodgers. He put up 245 yards and three touchdowns vs. a tough Steelers defense and now gets a prime matchup vs. a Bucs defense that has allowed a league-high 284.6 passing yards per game and the sixth-most DraftKings points per game to the position. Finally, we have Jimmy Garoppolo making his first start of the season and it will be tough to tell what we are going to get. He made a final drive appearance last week and completed both of his passes with a touchdown in garbage time but now goes on the road to Chicago to face a defense ranked eighth overall in DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks.

Top Targets in this Tier – Jameis Winston, Brett Hundley

Tier 6

From a PPR perspective, I love what Carlos Hyde brings to the table this season as he trails only Christian McCaffrey and Le’Veon Bell in targets with 73 on the season(6.6 per game). This is great news for quarterback Jimmy G making his first start of the season. Hyde has also rushed the ball pretty well this season despite the lack of total yards(game script issues as 49ers are not a good team) as he is averaging 4.1 yards per attempt and while he also shown us his upside with two multi-touchdown games. Marvin Jones gets a tough matchup vs. a Ravens defense that ranks third in DraftKings points allowed to wideouts but he has been dealing with tough matchup pretty well this season and is coming off a huge Thanksgiving game vs. the Vikings Xavier Rhodes as he totaled 109 yards and two touchdowns. He has scored at least one touchdown in three of his last four games(five total). I prefer him over his teammate Golden Tate. Tyreke Hill has been a product of a struggling Chiefs offense and I thought last week he was going to breakout but he was unable to do much with his 11 targets as he caught seven of them for just 41 yards. I am going back to the well again this week with Hill as he gets another good matchup vs. the Jets who rank 21st in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. Stefon Diggs has been average this season as he has somewhat taken a backseat to Adam Thielen who has been getting the better matchups out of the slot and has become Case Keenum’s favorite target. Lamar Miller has somewhat disappointed this season, from a rushing standpoint, averaging 3.7 yards per carry with three touchdowns but has made up his value receiving with another three touchdowns and has tallied double-digit DraftKings points in all but two games. The issue this week is that he is dealing with a knee inury and was absent from Wednesday’s practice. Stay tuned for the Texans late-week injury status report.

Top Targets in this Tier – Carlos Hyde, Marvin Jones Jr, Tyreke Hill

Tier 7

There is a lot to like about Jarvis Landry in this tier as he not only sits third overall in targets per game(10.6) but has scored a touchdown in six of his last eight games. The matchup is a big downgrade this week vs. the Broncos who rank fourth in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts but looking at DVOA they rank outside the top half of the league in 19th. I think the matchup helps keep him a bit lower owned than he should be this week. Mohamed Sanu is coming off a pretty big game last week as he not only caught eight of his nine targets for 64 yards but he also completed a 51-yard touchdown pass to Julio Jones. I don’t see the trickery happening this week but I do like the matchup as Julio Jones will be shadowed by Xavier Rhodes with help over the top leaving Sanu to go up against Terrance Newman for most of his snaps. Next up, we got Rex Burkhead who was out-carried 15-12 by Dion Lewis while Lewis also gained 112 yards to Burkhead’s 50 but it was Burkhead getting the scores, one on the ground and one through the air. The risk is there with both Pats running backs but they also have upside and should be low owned because of it. My suggestion would be to build multiple lineups with your favorite plays in other tiers and split the backs in this tier into a couple lineups.

Top Targets in this Tier – Jarvis Landry, Mohamed Sanu, Dion Lewis

Tier 8

Demaryius Thomas has been getting his share of targets this season(8.8 per game) and leads the team but will be hard to trust with the carousel of quarterbacks in Denver. The matchup is a tough one to read as the Dolphins corners rank poorly on PFF’s rankings and have allowed 11 touchdowns to wideouts this season(11th most) but they also have allowed the 11th fewest DK points per game as they have done a good job limiting the overall yardage. I think it has a lot to do with teams running the ball on them regularly. After last week’s stink by Thomas, I think he could go low-owned this week. All aboard! Jerick McKinnon sits second in average DK points per game this season in this tier but has been trending down lately with Latavius Murray averaging over four yards per attempt in three straight games while also adding four touchdowns. His teammate, tight end Kyle Rudolph, has been playing well lately catching 20 of his 25 targets over the past four games with three touchdowns and has recorded double-digit DK points in three of those four games. The issue this week is the tough matchup as he is likely to see a ton of coverage from Keanu Neal who ranks as one of the top safeties/linebackers who takes on tight ends in coverage. DeMarco Murray is a huge risk splitting time with Derrick Henry and has failed to break 20 yards rushing in three of his last four games despite getting the goal line carries and three scores. I will be avoiding this week. The other play I am looking at in this tier is Kenyan Drake despite the tough matchup as he is likely to get a heavy workload with Damian Williams likely out with a shoulder injury.

Top Targets in this Tier – Demaryius Thomas, Kenyan Drake

 

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions leading up to Sunday morning lineup lock, be sure to hit me up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Good luck everyone!

 

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 11

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 11

Week 11 means we’ve made it to the end of the bye weeks! Only four teams are on bye this week, and they are the 49ers, Jets, Colts, and the Panthers. We typically three of those four defenses for Quarterbacks but this week we have a fair amount of options on the Draftkings main slate. A big note for this slate is that the Patriots and Raiders game will be played in Mexico City where the stadium sits over 7,000 feet above sea level. There could be a chance that players get tired as the game progresses.

The Draftkings main slate is without a few really good games this week, which means the PrimeTime slate should be a lot of fun this week. The Sunday Night Football game features the 1st seed Eagles at Dallas in a division rivalry, while the Monday Night game has the Falcons going to Seattle.

 

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Vegas:

Since Vegas has become such a huge part of the DFS community and is where most DFS players start their research, I decided to write up a portion outlining the big Vegas numbers. All Vegas totals will be taken from Fantasy Labs Vegas page on Wednesday.

This week there are currently two games with a game total over 50 with the Patriots and the Raiders sitting at 53.5 and the Redskins at the Saints sitting at 51. These two games are above the rest of the pack with three games sitting with a total over 44. The Bills at Chargers (44), Chiefs at Giants (45), and the Rams at Vikings (45.5).

There are three games that Vegas has as over a touchdown favorite. The Chiefs led the way with as 10 ½ point favorite over the Giants, The Saints and Jags are tied for second on the main slate with a 7.5 point edge over the Redskins and the Browns, respectively. And the Patriots are 7 point favorites against the Raiders. There are four teams with implied team totals over 24 points. The Chargers (24), Vikings (24), Chiefs (27.75), Saints (29.25), and the Patriots (30.25).

I encourage you to check out the Fantasy Labs page on Sunday morning to see if there are any drastic changes to these game totals. Of course, Lineup Labs subs have access to this information in the player pool. Let’s dive into the slate.

Quarterbacks:

Alex Smith

This is a pretty good week for Quarterbacks. There are plenty of good options at the high priced tier, and a few good value plays. Starting with Drew Brees.

Drew Brees (DK $ 6,800) – Brees is the 2nd highest priced quarterback on the DK main slate. Brees is in an ideal spot as a home favorite with a high team total (29.25) and a high total (51). Brees has historically done well at home and Washington ranks in the middle of the pack in aFPA to quarterbacks this season. Brees will likely be one of the most popular quarterbacks on the slate with his price reaching a season-low 6.8K. The concern here is that the Saints are not the same Saints team that we could on to throw the ball 40-50 times per game. The Saints are passing the ball only 52% of the time this season compared to 64% of the time last season. Brees has not attempted over 30 passes since week 7 against the Packers. Brees is always a threat to have a huge game at home. He will be popular so fade him at your own risk.

Alex Smith (DK $6,700) – If you are fading Brees, don’t overlook Alex Smith. Smith is about the same price as Brees and has similar Vegas numbers. Chiefs are big favorites (10.5), have a high total (27.75), and are facing a putrid Giants defense that just allowed CJ Bethard to score 26 DK points against them. The Giants are 30th in the league in aFPA to quarterbacks this season and have gotten burned by Jared Goff, Russell Wilson (on the road), Trevor Siemian, Philip Rivers, and Jameis Winston the past six weeks. This Giants team is #bad, and the Chiefs will have no problem with them coming off of a bye (Andy Reid is 16-2 lifetime coming off of a bye). I’d lean more on Smith than Brees because the Chiefs have a 57% rate and Smith provides some rushing upside. Smith is my favorite QB this week.

Blaine Gabbert (DK $4,900) *expected to start* – I know, you probably threw up in your mouth and are skipping over this section. But Gabbert is getting his first start of the season against the Texans. The Texans rank 29th in aFPA allowed and have been burned for more than 20 points in four of the past five weeks by quarterbacks. Gabbert looked okay this past preseason, completing 61% of his passes and a QBR of 85.9. Bottomline is you’re probably not going to roster Gabbert here, but he’s super cheap and is going up against a bad Texans’ defense and has plenty of weapons to make plays for him.

Cash:

Smith, Brees, Brady, Carr

GPP:

(Above) Cousins, Rivers (if active), Cutler, Gabbert

 

Running back:

Alvin Kamara

There isn’t a clear standout running back on this slate, so there isn’t an incredibly priced up player like we saw last week at $9,800. This week Gurley (8.4K) is the highest priced back and Fournette (8.2K), Ingram (8.1K), and Hunt (8K) all round out the $8,000 range.

Leonard Fournette (DK $8,200) – Fournette burned me last week in his first game back. He was in an ideal spot and threw up a complete dud in my lineups. I generally don’t like playing running backs against the Browns, but this is a situation where I’m watching the weather very closely. Winds are expected to reach upwards of 20MPH on Sunday in Cleveland, and the Jags already hate putting the ball in Blake Bortles’ hand. The Jags run a league-high 51% of the time and are 7 ½ points favorites. If the weather holds up as it looks right now, this could be a sluggish game that Fournette ends up touching the ball around 30 times.

Kareem Hunt (DK $8,000) – I think Hunt will be the most popular top priced running back of the four mentioned above. The Giants rank 27th in aFPA for running backs and Kareem Hunt is a huge favorite with one of the highest implied team total. He’s not a bad play by any means, I just really like getting my exposure to this Chiefs offense through the passing attack. Also, I’ve seen Hunt turn into a 2-down back and be replaced by Charcandrick West more than I’m comfortable. In the Chiefs, las game Hunt saw his snap count dip from 67% to 54%. He still got 5 targets in the game, but only touched the ball 13 times. I understand that Hunt is in a good spot, I just like the passing attack more for KC. This could be a week that I venture away from the top priced running backs.

Alvin Kamara (DK $7,500) – Kamara just might be my favorite running back this week. He’s $600 cheaper than Mark Ingram and gives me exposure to both the Saints passing and rushing attacks. The past two weeks Kamara is only playing in 39% of the snaps but is receiving 92% of the targets out of the backfield. He’s combined for 40% of the running back targets with 33 compared to Ingram’s 38. Although the snaps are quite even, Brees looks to Kamara often, and on a PPR format like DK, Kamara only needs about 5 catches for 50 yards to put him on pace to reach value.

Rex Burkhead ($3,600), Dion Lewis ($4,200), James White ($4,700) – The trio of Patriots running backs are going to be somewhat popular. Burkhead might carry the highest ownership with his 3.6K price tag. But to try to figure out which running back, Bill Belichick will use, is anyone’s guess. Last week Burkhead led the three backs in snaps with 51% (Lewis 30%, White 16%, Bolden 3%). Lewis led the team in rushing attempts with 50% (Burkhead 36%, White 7%, Bolden 7%). Burkhead was tied with White in targets with 3 targets apiece (Lewis had 0). At the end of all this the touches brokedown this way – Lewis 14 touches, Burkhead 13, White 5, and Bolden 2. Like I said, anyone’s guess who will emerge here. I’d imagine Burkhead would be the best player because of his ability to catch and rush the ball, along with his low price. But it’s very tough.

Cash:

T. Gurley, L. Fournette, K. Hunt, M.Ingram, A. Kamara, M. Gordon, R. Burkhead

GPP:

(All Above), C. Thompson, Pats RBs, K. Drake

Wide Receivers:

Sterling Shepard

Michael Thomas (DK $ 7,400) – Thomas is the second highest price wide receiver and will be popular. He’s going to be the conventional stack with Brees. Thomas is 7th in the league with 83 targets, averaging over 9 targets per game. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since week 4 against so we can expect some positive regression for him. The one concern some people may have in rostering him could be ill-advised. People might be concerned that Josh Norman could shadow him, but that is not expected to be the case here. Josh Norman does not shadow receivers and has played all, but a handful of plays on the left side of the defense.75% of Thomas’ snaps are on the right side of the formation so he should avoid Norman for most of the game.

Sterling Shepard (DK $6,300) – Another popular play here with Shepard coming off of a 13 target game and 28 DK points. Shepard has received 22 targets in his last two games and had turned that into some good production (16 catches, 212 yards, 40.2 DK points). The Giants are likely going to be trailing, which will force Eli to throw the ball upwards of 30 times, and that means Shephard is likely to see 10+ targets again. The Chiefs are 31st aFPA to wide receivers so he should be a lock for cash games. His price continues to rise with his production as of late, but you’re looking at a receiver with a floor of 5 catches and 70 yards.

Tyreek Hill (DK $7,100) – This middle tier price range will be popular this week, especially without a clear stud to pay up for. Hill is typically more of a tournament play than a cash game play, but the matchup lines up perfectly for him this week. The Giants are one of the worst teams in the league at giving up the deep ball, and that fits perfectly into Hill’s game. Hill doesn’t have an exceptionally high floor, but his ceiling is the perfect play for tournaments.

Michael Crabtree (DK $6,600) & Amari Cooper ($6,000) – Going a little cheaper from the guys mentioned above, you can’t go wrong with either of the top two receivers for the Raiders. The Raiders are a touchdown underdog in the game with the highest total between two offenses that have the firepower to put up points. We’ve seen Derrick Carr eclipse more than 30 attempts in each of his last four games, including two game of over 49. It’s easy to see the Raiders airing the ball out to either keep up with the Pats or maintain a lead. If Carr is likely to throw 45+ times, these two could be in store for 10+ targets each against a Patriots defense that is much improved but still ranks 29th aFPA to wide receivers.

Value

Jeremy Maclin (DK $4,500) – Maclin caught 8 of his 9 targets last week for 98 yards against the Titans. This week he faces the Packers who rank 28th in aFPA to wide receivers this season.

Bruce Ellington (DK $3,000) – Ellington stepped in for an injured Will Fuller and caught 4 of his 8 targets for 41 yards and a touchdown against the Rams. Ellington is going to face the 2nd corner with Patrick Peterson likely to follow DeAndre Hopkins all over the field.

Cash:

M. Thomas, S. Shepard, T. Hill, A. Cooper, J. Maclin, B. Cooks

GPP:

(All of the Above) D. Hopkins (too cheap), M. Wallace, M. Crabtree, E. Sanders, K. Allen, M. Evans, A. Thielen.

Tight End:

Travis Kelce

The top-priced tight ends are all in great spots (Kelce, Gronk, Engram). If you can fit one into your lineup, they are the clear top plays of the slate.

Tyler Kroft (DK $2,900) – A nice salary put here. Kroft has done a great job exceeding value since Tyler Eifert went down for the season. This week we get him at a discount after a poor performance in week 10. He faces the Broncos who have a tight end funnel pass defense and rank 30th in aFPA against tight ends. Kroft has scored at least 9 DK points in 3 of his last 4 games.

Martellus Bennett (DK $2,800) – Bennett could be a sneaky pivot off of Gronk. In only a short period time with the Pats, Bennett caught all 3 of his targets for 38 yards last week. You don’t need much at 2.8K, a touchdown and 20 yards will give you a little more than 3X

Cash:

T. Kelce, R. Gronkowski, E. Engram, V. Davis (if Reed is out), T. Kroft

GPP:

(All of Above) J. Cook, B. Watson, J. Gresham, C. Brate

Defense:

Los Angeles Chargers

LA Chargers (DK $3,000) –  The Chargers are facing rookie quarterback Nathan Peterman in his first career start. The Chargers have a great defensive line and should be able to bring pressure on Peterman, forcing sacks and possibly interceptions.

Cash:

JAX, LAC, HOU, ARI, DEN,

GPP:

BAL, KC, NO, CIN