The tight end position is already thin, but Week 5 is especially bad if you are playing the main Sunday afternoon slate in DFS. Travis Kelce and George Kittle both won’t be available, leaving us without two of the top options.
Read MoreNFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 4 – TE/DEF/ST
*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
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The tight end position is looking ugly across the league. Another one of the top players there will be sidelined this week as Evan Engram is out with a knee injury. Add in Jordan Reed and Redskins on their bye week and it’s slim pickings for Week 4. Let’s dive into the schedule and examine some players, and defenses/special teams, to target or avoid as you create your DFS entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.
CASH CONTEST OPTIONS
Zach Ertz vs. Tennessee Titans
Stadium – Nissan Stadium
FanDuel = $7,000
DraftKings = $6,200
In what has been a volatile position this year, Ertz has stood out as one of the few reliable tight ends. He’s received at least 10 targets in all three games, although he is still looking for his first touchdown. After three straight seasons with at least 800 receiving yards, Ertz is well on his way to hitting that threshold again with 215 yards so far.
The Eagles have been banged up at wide receiver and even if Alshon Jeffery does return this week, they are still going to rely heavily on Ertz. Carson Wentz was a little rusty in Week 3 in his first game since returning from a torn ACL, but he’ll continue to improve with each passing week. The Titans have great numbers against opposing tight ends, but they faced three teams with poor options at the position in the Dolphins, Texans, and Jaguars. Look for Ertz to give them plenty of trouble.
Trey Burton vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium – Soldier Field
FanDuel = $5,600
DraftKings = $3,900
Burton left the Eagles to take over as the top tight end for the Bears this year and received plenty of hype as a breakout fantasy candidate. Things haven’t gone well for him so far, catching nine of 15 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown. Part of the problem has been the play of quarterback Mitch Trubisky, who is only averaging 197 passing yards per game and has more interceptions (three) than touchdowns (two).
If you want to look at the bright side, Burton’s 15 targets are third-most on the team behind Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel, so he’s clearly an important part of the offense. If there is ever a week for him to have a big performance, it could come in this game against the Bucs, who have allowed the most receptions (25) and receiving yards (329) to tight ends so far.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets
Stadium – TIAA Bank Field
FanDuel = $5,200
DraftKings = $4,100
The Jaguars continue to get after the quarterback, totaling seven sacks across three games. They only have one interception on the year, but they have recovered two fumbles and held two of their three opponents to 15 points or fewer. In their toughest matchup against the Patriots, they limited them to 20 points while pulling off a big win at home.
It would be nice to see the Jaguars creating more turnovers, but their ability to accumulate sacks makes them a defense to target more often than not. Week 4 brings a great matchup against a Jets team that has seen rookie quarterback Sam Darnold throw five interceptions compared to three touchdowns. The Jaguars are the most expensive option at the position, but for good reason.
GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
Tyler Eifert vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $3,800
Eifert certainly has talent, but injuries have left him unable to reach his full potential. He played 10 games over the last two seasons combined and hasn’t played more than 13 games in a year since his rookie campaign 2013. The Bengals have taken a cautious approach with his return and he’s been able to stay healthy through the first three weeks. His best performance came last week against the Panthers, catching six of eight targets for 74 yards.
Part of the season for Eifert’s production in Week 3 was because wide receiver A.J. Green didn’t play in the second half due to injury. Eifert had only seven total targets in the first two weeks. There is still a reason to be optimistic about his chances to provide value Sunday based on this matchup against a Falcons defense that has been decimated by injuries. This game could turn into a shootout, making Eifert an intriguing option.
Rhett Ellison vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $2,700
The loss of Engram is significant for the Giants. They have a lot of weapons on offense, but Engram still received 12 targets across their first two games. After he went down last week, Ellison stepped in as the Giants primary tight end. He played 87% of their snaps, catching all three of his targets for 39 yards and a touchdown.
Ellison is known for his blocking abilities, but he also caught 75% of the passes thrown his way last year. Engram didn’t play in the final game last season, a contest in which Ellison caught five of six targets for 63 yards. At this cheap price, Ellison is worth a look in tournament play if you want to load up at running back and wide receiver.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – State Farm Stadium
FanDuel = $4,400
DraftKings = $3,200
The Seahawks defense has lost a lot of players from the “Legion of Boom” era, but that hasn’t stopped them from recording seven interceptions this season. They have also chipped in eight sacks, although two of the three games they have played came against subpar offenses in the Bears and Cowboys.
They’ll face another low-scoring team Sunday as the Cardinals have only posted 20 points through three weeks. Sam Bradford has looked terrible, leading the team to name Josh Rosen the starting quarterback for Week 4. Rosen could experience some growing pains and the Cardinals offensive play calling has been questionable, to say the least, making the Seahawks a viable candidate if you don’t want to pay up for the Jaguars.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
George Kittle vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $5,700
DraftKings = $4,200
The 49ers have lost arguably their two best players on offense already with Jerick McKinnon and Jimmy Garoppolo both done for the year with torn ACL’s. C.J. Beathard takes over at quarterback for Week 4 and he was anything but special last season, averaging 204.3 passing yards and throwing six interceptions across seven games. There may still be occasions where Kittle can be productive, but I’d take a wait-and-see approach for the first week with Beathard running the offense.
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Stadium – Lucas Oil Stadium
FanDuel = $4,200
DraftKings = $2,700
Few teams looked as inept offensively over the first two weeks as the Giants. They have plenty of talent, but a poor offensive line and the diminishing play of Eli Manning had put them in a 0-2 hole. They played much better against the Texans in Week 3, scoring 27 points in route to their first win of the year. Considering they lost Engram in the second quarter, it was an even more impressive feat. The Texans have allowed at least 20 points in each game this season and only have one interception, leaving them with limited upside on the road against the Colts.
Daily Fantasy Football: NFL DFS Week 1 Cash and GPP Picks
Quarterbacks:
Quarterback is the most underpriced position in both Draftkings and Fanduel. The main reason why the quarterback position is wildly underpriced is that there isn’t a large gap between the top scoring QB opposed to the 12th scoring QB. It also has to due in large part with the fact that their scoring is weighted lower than other positions. QB’s receive 4 points per touchdown and 1 point for every 25 yards gained. If you play on Draftkings they give a bonus for quarterbacks that throw over 300 yards. That may alter your decision making because it makes quarterbacks more reliant on touchdowns in FanDuel than in Draftkings. Now that we broke down the scoring discrepancies, let’s take a look at a few quarterbacks you should be targeting for both cash and gpp games.
Cash:
Marcus Mariota (DK $6,700, FD $7,700)
Mariota comes into week 1 as the consensus chalk quarterback. The 6th highest priced QB on DK and 7th highest priced QB on FD, Mariota won’t be heavily owned because of his bargain price. Instead, Mariota will likely be the highest owned QB in cash games because of his favorable Vegas totals. The Titans come into week one as a 3.5 point favorite against the Raiders in a game that features the highest over/under 50.5. This high over/under gives the Titans an implied total of 26.5 points, good enough for second on this slate only behind the Steelers. Quarterbacks with similar Vegas totals have gone on to perform well in the past. Mariota has had the best red zone touchdown efficiency rating since joining the league in 2015. When you add up all that and include that the Raiders had one of the worst secondaries in the league last season, you can see why Mariota is expected to be the highest owned quarterback.
GPP:
Russell Wilson (DK $ 6,900, FD $8,000)
After a let down 2016 season, Wilson finds himself looking to hit the refresh button. His fantasy production last season took a dip because he only rushed for 259 yards on the season with one rushing touchdown. It’s been heavily reported that Wilson changed his workout routine over the offseason and is looking to recapture his 2015 form this season. Well, week 1 is a nice opportunity for Wilson to put his new offseason regime to the test against the Packers. The Packers allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game last season and did hardly anything to improve their secondary in the offseason. This game opened up with an over/under just under 50 but has since increased to 51, giving this game the highest over/under on the slate. The Seahawks are on road underdogs, and that generally isn’t a recipe for success, but the Packers secondary is bad enough for you to consider taking a flier on Wilson in tournaments.
Plays worth considering in Cash & GPP:
Matt Ryan (DK $6,900, FD $8,500) – The Falcons are tied for 1st on the slate for implied team points with 27.5. Matt Ryan is going up against a Bears defense that is significantly improved in the front seven and new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian could look to air it out in their first game to get Falcon’s fans over their 28-3 blown Super Bowl win. However, Ryan does come with some red flags as he is playing on the road and there truly is no way of telling how the offense will function without Kyle Shanahan.
Ben Roethlisberger ($DK 7,300, FD $8,200) – Big Ben comes in with the same implied team total as the Falcons. He’s playing an abysmal Browns team and is an 8.5 point favorite. Ben will have his full assortment of weapons to his use with the return of LeVeon Bell and Martavis Bryant. The concern here is Ben’s home and road splits.
Running Backs
The running back position is almost always dominated by Le’Veon Bell (DK $9,800, FD $9,300) and David Johnson (DK $9,400, FD $9,400). This week is no different. Both are elite plays and expect to be the highest owned backs in this slate. Now the question is if you can play both of them. The answer is yes. There’s certainly enough value in other positions that allow you to make your lineup construction with these two elite backs. But if you have to choose one over the other I like Johnson over Bell because of the simple fact that the game has a closer spread and David Johnson plays for a Cardinal team that has fewer mouths to feed than the Steelers.
Chalk
Todd Gurley (DK $6,000, FD $7,300)
If you’re looking for a chalk alternative from the two safe, elite backs look no further than Todd Gurley. More of a value on Draftkings than Fanduel, Gurley comes into week 1 in an elite spot. The Rams are currently home favorite against the Andrew Luck-less Colts and have seen the Vegas line shift them from 3 point underdogs to 4 point favorites. With a poor offensive line and Jeff Fisher calling the plays last season, Gurley had a letdown year after being selected as the number 1 RB in most season-long drafts last season. This year the Rams have made some moves to improve their offensive line and also brought in Sean McVay to jumpstart their offense. Gurley should have an ample amount of opportunities to get to the 100 yard DK bonus and could even fall into the endzone.
GPP
Carlos Hyde (DK $4,600, FD $6,800)
If you’re looking for a cheap running back in your roster construction, Carlos Hyde is your answer. With Joe William landing on the IR and Tim Hightower being a surprise cut out of the 49ers camp, Hyde only has to share targets with undrafted rookie Matt Breida. Hyde should be a lock for 25 touches with Kyle Shanahan calling the plays now and his price on both sites could help open up salary in other roster spots.
Wide Receivers
Depending on lineup construction, wide receiver could be where you really differentiate yourself from the field. The top 3 studs are all in strong positions. Antonio Brown (DK $ 8,800, FD $9,100), Julio Jones (DK $8,500, FD $9,000), and AJ Green (DK $8,000, FD $ 8,400) are all in spots where we can see them have a big game. But let’s take an audible into some plays that people may be overlooking
Doug Baldwin (DK $6,700, FD $7,500)
I mentioned how the Seahawks passing offense was in a good spot against the Packers. The game flow looks to be in Baldwin’s favor as the Packers had the worst secondary in the league last season, and quite frankly their cornerbacks don’t scare any passing attack. Baldwin will face either Quinten Rollins, Davon House, or Damarious Randall neither was graded higher than top 50 of Pro Football Focus Cornerback Rankings.
Kendall Wright (DK $3,200, FD $5,200)
Kendall Wright looks poised to take advantage of a Bears receiving corp that is extremely depleted after losing Cameron Meredith for the season. Although Wright is not listed as the number two receiver behind Kevin White, Wright will be on the field in three wide receiver sets. That may sound concerning, but during preseason the first-team Bears offense ran three wide receiver sets 14 out of their 15 plays, so Wright is a sneaky cheap option to get some much volume. Wright was signed by the Bears after his previous work with offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains. Under Loggains, Wright saw and an average of 8.7 targets per game back in 2013. In a game that the Bears are heavy underdogs against the Falcons, the offense could be throwing the ball more than 40 times opening up cheap targets for Wright to snag.
Amari Cooper (DK $7,200, FD $7,600)
Amari Cooper should be another popular play. Playing in the game with the highest over/under on the slate, Cooper is going to have an ample of opportunities to bring in targets. The Titans last season ranked in the bottom of the league in points per game allowed to wide receiver, and with a duel of Cooper and Crabtree, the Raiders passing game could be in store for a big game.
Larry Fitzgerald (DK $5,900, FD $6,400)
Fitz is a veteran that could be heavily owned in this first few weeks. The one thing about the vet is that he has some drastic splits from the first half of the season and the second. Fitzgerald has averaged 13.9 points in the first 6 games of the season compared to 11.3 games in the second half. The Cardinals passing offense faces the Lions who were 32nd in DVOA.
** Fanduel only ** Terrelle Pryor (FD $6,200) is extremely underpriced in Fanduel. Although his preseason action with Kirk Cousins left a lot to be desired, Pryor should see a massive target amount.
Tight End
Drafting a tight end in DFS is often dependent on the site you play. In Draftkings touchdowns become less important than targets, while on Fanduel touchdowns valued higher than targets/receptions.
Chalk
Draftkings – Zach Ertz (DK $4,300, FD $6,100)
Ertz is the uber chalk on Draftkings. With the Eagles getting rid of Jordan Matthews and Alshon Jeffery expecting to be shadowed by Josh Norman, Ertz becomes the immediate beneficiary of targets from Carson Wentz. Ertz doesn’t have the touchdown upside that others like Jared Cook or Tyler Eifert may have, but his price and volume make him a nice cash play on Draftkings.
Fanduel – Tyler Eifert (DK $4,600, FD $6,100)
Eifert is an example of how site determines what would be the better player. With Green sucking up most of the targets, Eifert is left with minimal targets. Fortunately for Eifert, he scored on over 40% of his targets last season. Although that number is likely to regress, Eifert is at a good price for such a volatile position.
Defense
Los Angeles Rams (DK $3,200, FD $4,600)
The Rams’ defense is in a good spot as a 4 point home favorite against a team that doesn’t have their starting quarterback. The Colts could very much be a train wreck come Sunday, and although the Rams will likely be without their All-Pro Aaron Donald, their defense should be able to handle Scott Tolzien and Frank Gore.
Houston Texans (DK $3,800, FD 5,100)
The Texans are the chalkiest defense with the highest upside. Aside from the fact that they are with the most talented defense in a prime matchup, they get to face Blake Bortles. Bortles looked dreadful this preseason and last year ranked in the bottom-10 in interception rate (3.7%). They are the most expensive defensive option out of the other chalk defense.
Fantasy Football Season Preview: Tight Ends and Defenses/Special Teams 2017
**Mike Barner**
Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends and Defenses/Special Teams 2017
The long journey through the NFL season is rapidly approaching, meaning it’s one of the most exciting times of the year: drafting your fantasy football team. While you need your players to stay healthy and have a little luck go your way, having a strong draft can go a long way to determining the fate of your season.
Lineup Lab is here to help you come away a winner. In the fourth and final of our season previews, we’ll break down tight ends and defenses/special teams. Quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers get most of the attention, but having a quality tight end on your roster can help elevate your squad to a championship level.
While most owners wait to select defenses/special teams until the final rounds of your draft, that doesn’t mean it’s a throwaway position. Finding one that can create turnovers, accumulate sacks and throw in the occasional return touchdown can provide plenty of valuable points for your team.
Let’s examine some tight ends and defenses/special teams to target and avoid as you navigate your way through your draft.
Old Faces In New Places
Martellus Bennett – Green Bay Packers
You can put Bennett into this category just about every season as the Packers will be his fifth different team in the last seven seasons. He had the best season of his career in 2014 as a member of the Chicago Bears as he recorded 90 receptions for 916 yards and six touchdowns. The Patriots signed him to be their second tight end last season, but he ended up with a larger role than expected as Rob Gronkowski was injured yet again. Bennett played all 16 games and finished with 55 receptions, 701 yards and seven touchdowns.
Bennett will be the undisputed starter in Green Bay, becoming possibly the most talented tight end that quarterback Aaron Rodgers has had the pleasure of playing with. Last season’s tight end duo of Jared Cook and Richard Rodgers combined for 60 receptions, 648 yards and three touchdowns.
Bennett is certainly a better player than either Cook or Rodgers and should present a better red zone target as well. The Packers have a great receiving trio of Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams as well Ty Montgomery to catch passes out of the backfield, which could limit Bennett’s receptions a bit. With that being said, Bennett is still likely to be a top-10 fantasy option at tight end.
Julius Thomas – Miami Dolphins
Thomas had his breakout campaign as a member of the Denver Broncos in 2013 when he posted 65 receptions, 788 yards and 12 touchdowns. Although he only had 43 receptions and 489 yards in 2014, he still provided a ton of value as he again scored 12 touchdowns. It appeared he was going to be one of the elite red zone targets among tight ends in all of football for years to come.
His success was short lived though as he moved on to the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2015. Injuries limited him during his tenure with the team as he missed 11 games over the last two seasons. 2016 was a complete disaster as he only had 30 receptions, 281 yards and four touchdowns.
Now a member of the Dolphins, Thomas is looking to rejuvenate his career under the eye of coach Adam Gase. It’s important to note that Gase was on the Broncos’ staff when Thomas was playing at his best. Even though that would appear to be in Thomas’ favor, I’d still stay away from making him your starting tight end.
Overrated Players
Tyler Eifert – Cincinnati Bengals
Eifert’s best season came in 2015 when he had 52 receptions, 615 yards and an impressive 13 touchdowns in only 13 games. To put that into perspective, Gronk had 11 touchdowns that same season despite playing in two more games and Eifert. That excellent season vaulted Eifert towards the top of the tight end position for fantasy owners last season, but he couldn’t cash in as he was limited to only eight games due to injury.
Eifert supporters will point to the fact that he has 20 touchdowns in 37 career games. That is certainly elite production, but what is more important to note is that those 37 games have come over four seasons. Playing less than 10 games a year on average is a killer for his fantasy value. While he could be a top-5 tight end when healthy, the odds of him staying healthy for an entire season are not great. If you want to take a risk and draft him based on his upside, be sure to not overpay for him on draft day. Based on his current ADP though, you’ll likely have to.
Denver Broncos
To make this clear right off the bat, the Broncos are an excellent defensive team. They allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL last season and had more interceptions (14) than passing touchdowns allowed (13). Their 42 sacks were tied for third most in the league. Even though they weren’t as impressive against the run, they were still around the middle of the pack in rushing touchdowns allowed at 15.
The reason I believe the Broncos defense/special teams is overrated is because it’s likely going to cost you a pick that is higher than either of your last two selections, which is where you should be selecting your defense/special teams and kicker. Looking at ESPN standard scoring last season, the Broncos actually scored the second most fantasy points behind the Minnesota Vikings. The difference between the highest scoring defense/special teams and the tenth highest was only an average of three fantasy points per game.
A difference of three fantasy points per game is not worth reaching for the Broncos. I’d rather take a running back or wide receiver with upside at that point in the draft and worse case scenario, stream my defense/special team throughout the season based on weekly match ups.
Undervalued Players
Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles
On an Eagles team that lacked talented wide receivers last season, Ertz played a major role in their passing attack as he had 78 receptions for 816 yards and four touchdowns. He caught 74% of the passes thrown his way and averaged 10.5 yards per reception. Among fellow tight ends, Ertz ranked fifth in both receptions and receiving yards.
Ertz has been very consistent in his career, recording at least 702 receiving yards in each of the last three seasons. The last two seasons have been even better as he has at least 106 targets and 75 receptions in both years. He has also averaged at least 10.5 yards per reception in all four of his seasons in the league.
Although the Eagles are much improved this season with the additions of Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith, Ertz is still going to be a very important part of their offense. Quarterback Carson Wentz also looks primed to improve his game, which could provide a boost for Ertz. He might not score a ton of touchdowns, but his consistency and yardage provides a lot of value.
Austin Hooper – Atlanta Falcons
Hooper was selected in the third round of the 2016 draft, but he had a quiet rookie season last year as he had 19 receptions for 271 yards and three touchdowns. He only received 27 targets, so he really wasn’t that involved in the offense in general. One of his best games of the season though actually came in the Super Bowl as he had three receptions on six targets for 32 yards and a touchdown.
Hooper didn’t have great numbers last year partially because he was in a time share with Jacob Tamme. Tamme finished the season with 22 receptions, 210 yards and three touchdowns. As a unit, Falcons tight ends finished the season with 788 yards and 10 touchdowns. With Tamme now gone, Hooper is lined up to take over the starting job in only his second season in the league.
The Falcons passing offense was one of the best in the league last year, finishing third in passing yards, tied for second in passing touchdowns and first in yards per pass attempt. With a more prominent role in the offense, Hooper is going to have a chance to establish himself as a viable fantasy option this year. I think at worse he is a top-15 tight end who has the potential to finish in the top-10. Considering how late he is going in drafts, he could be one of the best value picks at the tight end position.
A Look At The Fantasy Playoff Schedule
Another key part of your research is to know who has favorable match ups during the fantasy football playoffs, generally weeks 15 and 16 in most leagues. Let’s dive in and see where you can gain that edge.
Favorable Schedules
Houston Texans
The Texans defense/special team starts off the fantasy playoffs by taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road in Week 15. While the Jaguars drafted promising running back Leonard Fournette, they are just a mess at quarterback as Blake Bortles has regressed significantly. They certainly do not have the makings of a potent offense. Week 16 brings a match up against the Pittsburgh Steelers, which would appear difficult on the surface, but is more favorable when you consider the game is being played in Houston. As noted in our quarterbacks season preview, Ben Roethlisberger struggles significantly on the road. Things are looking up for the Texans fantasy value at the right time this year.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs face the Los Angeles Charges in Week 15, a team that does have some fire power. However, this is a home game for Kansas City and they allowed only 16 points per game at home last season. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is prone to throwing interceptions as well as he has at least 18 in two of the last three seasons. Week 16 brings another home game, this time against the Miami Dolphins. Dolphins quarterback Jay Cutler also turns the ball over a lot as he has thrown 34 interceptions in his last 35 games. Getting two turnover-prone quarterbacks at home is a major win for the Chiefs during the fantasy playoffs.
Difficult Schedules
Jordan Reed – Washington Redskins
I mentioned this before when talking about Tyrelle Pryor in the wide receivers preview, but the Redskins have a brutal schedule when it matters the most. Week 15 brings a contest against the Arizona Cardinals who allowed the fourth fewest passing yards and were tied for the eighth fewest passing touchdowns allowed. Week 16 brings the stingy Broncos who allowed the fewest passing yards and fewest passing touchdowns last season. Reed certainly has his work cut out for him.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are faced with two road games during the fantasy playoffs. Week 15 will be against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have added wide receiver DeSean Jackson and tight end O.J. Howard to go along with Mike Evans and Cameron Brate. Entering his third season in the NFL, quarterback Jameis Winston is poised to take the Bucs offense to the next level. Week 16 brings the nightmare match up against the New Orleans Saints in New Orleans. Last season, the Saints scored 32 points against the Falcons when they met them at home as Drew Brees threw for 376 yards and three touchdowns. While I’m not high on the Falcons defense to begin with, you definitely want to avoid them down the stretch.