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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 6/21/18

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

June special! Use Code PAMLB30 at checkout

With several teams off and a few day games on the schedule Thursday, there are only seven games to pick from for the main evening slate in DFS. Sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

STARTING PITCHERS

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 6/21/18

Max Scherzer vs. Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Nationals Park
FanDuel = $12,200
DraftKings = $14,500

Scherzer is the clear top option on the slate Thursday. He has continued to be one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball with a 2.06 ERA, 1.94 FIP, and a 0.84 WHIP. He has only allowed eight home runs in 100.2 innings and has a career-high 13.6 K/9. This will mark his second start of the season against the Orioles after he recorded 12 strikeouts over eight scoreless innings in their first matchup. He’ll eat up a significant portion of your budget, but his upside is off the charts.

Tyson Ross vs. San Francisco Giants
Stadium – AT&T Park
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $7,800

Ross couldn’t have looked much worse for the Rangers last year, posting a 7.71 ERA and a 1.84 WHIP. His return the Padres has rejuvenated his career, though, as he has a 3.51 ERA, 3.60 FIP and a 1.20 WHIP in 14 starts. He’s done a tremendous job cutting down on his walks, following up his 6.8 BB/9 last year with a 3.2 mark this season. Hitters are also chasing more pitches outside of the strike zone, helping boost his K/9 to 9.0. He has already faced the Giants twice this season, allowing two runs (one earned) and recording 14 strikeouts in 12 innings.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 6/21/18

Anthony Rizzo vs. Matt Harvey, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $4,000
DraftKings = $4,700

Rizzo is still trying to dig out of a horrid start that saw him enter May hitting .149. He batted .303 in May and is hitting .274 in June, helping boost his average to .247 overall. He has a .346 wOBA against right-handed pitching and will face the struggling Harvey, who has a 5.09 ERA and a 5.13 FIP since being traded to the Reds.

Matt Olson vs. Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox
Stadium – Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $3,900

With Giolito on the mound, stacking Athletics’ hitters could be a sound strategy. Giolito has a bloated 1.64 WHIP and actually has more walks (45) than strikeouts (40). The result has been a 7.19 ERA and 6.29 FIP across 14 starts. He’s also allowed a .401 wOBA to left-handed hitters, making Olson a great option if you can’t afford to fit Rizzo into your entry.

Others to consider: Joey Votto (first base) and Wilson Contreras (catcher)

SECOND BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 6/21/18

Jed Lowrie vs. Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox
Stadium – Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $4,200

As we continue our Athletics stack, Lowrie weighs in as one of the top options at second base. He’s cooled off considerably from his hot start to the season, but he is 9-for-23 (.391) with two home runs during his current five-game hitting streak. The switch-hitting Lowrie is also better from the left side of the plate, posting a .371 wOBA against right-handed pitchers.

Jedd Gyorko vs. Brent Suter, Milwaukee Brewers
Stadium – Miller Park
FanDuel = $3,000
DraftKings = $3,200

With the lefty Suter on the mound, Gyorko jumps out as a cheap option with upside in tournament play. He has a paltry 65 wRC+ against righties this year but has mashed lefties with a 201 wRC+. He has three home runs in 39 plate appearances against lefties compared to only two home runs in 123 plate appearances against right-handers.

Others to consider: Scooter Gennett and Daniel Descalso

THIRD BASE

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 6/21/18

Anthony Rendon vs. Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Nationals Park
FanDuel = $3,900
DraftKings = $3,900

With the likes of Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Juan Soto and Adam Eaton, the Nationals lineup is loaded with very good left-handed hitters. Rendon is an important right-handed bat in their lineup who destroys left-handed pitching. He doesn’t exactly struggle against righties, either, posting a .349 wOBA against them this year. With at least two hits in five of his last six games, Rendon is still an excellent option Thursday even though he doesn’t have the platoon advantage against Gausman.

Matt Davidson vs. Chris Bassitt, Oakland Athletics
Stadium – Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $3,100
DraftKings = $3,900

When you take a chance on Davidson, you’re hoping he connects for a home run since he is only batting .226 for his career. He does have 13 homers this year, including two in his last four games. Bassitt has only made two starts for the Athletics this season, the last of which he allowed six runs (two earned) in only four innings against the Angels. He had a 6.10 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP at Triple-A before being called up and is really only in the rotation right now due to all of Oakland’s injuries.

Others to consider: Kris Bryant and Jake Lamb

SHORTSTOP

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 6/21/18

Trea Turner vs. Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles
Stadium – Nationals Park
FanDuel = $3,900
DraftKings = $4,700

Although Turner’s 20 steals would be great for most players, it’s a bit disappointing for him considering he had 46 steals in only 98 games last year. He’s been caught stealing just twice, but his .266 average isn’t helping with his opportunities. He does have at least one hit in seven of his last eight games and actually has better numbers against righties (.335 wOBA) than lefties (.314 wOBA), bringing him into the discussion for this limited slate.

Marcus Semien vs. Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox
Stadium – Guaranteed Rate Field
FanDuel = $3,400
DraftKings = $4,100

Semien has busted out his power stroke of late, recording two home runs and three doubles in his last five games. Giolito has had problems with home runs throughout his career in the majors, resulting in a 1.7 HR/9. Semien has very similar splits against lefties and righties, making him another viable option for an Athletics stack.

Others to consider: Andrelton Simmons and Addison Russell

OUTFIELD

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Recommendations for 6/21/18

Tommy Pham vs. Brent Suter, Milwaukee Brewers
Stadium – Miller Park
FanDuel = $4,200
DraftKings = $4,700

Pham has been on a rollercoaster ride this season. He was on fire at the start of the year, batting .341 through April. However, he couldn’t buy a hit in May as he hit only .195. He’s found a happy medium by batting .260 in June, recording at least one hit in all but three games he has played in the month. With a .361 wOBA against lefties, Pham has the potential for a big performance against Suter.

Kyle Schwarber vs. Matt Harvey, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $4,300

We’ve already detailed that Harvey has struggled in general this season, but he has had even bigger problems against lefties, allowing a .393 wOBA. Harvey also gives up a lot of home runs with a 1.9 HR/9. Schwarber doesn’t hit for a high average and strikes out a lot, but he has a ton of power and enters Thursday having hit a home run in back-to-back games.

Jason Heyward vs. Matt Harvey, Cincinnati Reds
Stadium – Great American Ball Park
FanDuel = $2,700
DraftKings = $3,900

Heyward hasn’t been able to live up to his big contract, although the Cubs did finally break their long World Series drought in his first season with the team in 2016. Heyward is currently having his best season in Chicago, batting .269 with a .749 OPS. He got off to a slow start, but he hit .283 in May and is batting .286 so far in June. You want to avoid him against left-handed pitching, but he’s some to consider against Harvey since he has a .349 wOBA against righties this year.

Others to consider: Juan Soto and Marcell Ozuna

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 10

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*
May special! Use Code PAMLB30 at checkout

If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. Here are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 10

Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels: at DET, vs. TEX

Despite the Angels using a six-man rotation, they have no off days this week, which will lead to Skaggs getting a rare two-start week. Skaggs is pitching well with a 3.11 ERA, 3.65 FIP, and 1.24 WHIP this year. He’s not a glaring regression candidate either with a .306 BABIP allowed that is almost right in line with his career mark. One of his big improvements has been his 10.6% swinging-strike rate that has resulted in a 9.7 K/9. Both the Tigers and Rangers are middle-of-the-pack in terms of runs scored and Skaggs actually held the Rangers to one run while recording seven strikeouts over five innings earlier this season.

Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres: vs. MIA, vs. CIN

Ross finally looks like the pitcher he was before having thoracic outlet surgery in 2016. Last year was a disaster with the Rangers, but rejoining the Padres seems to have been a wise move on his part. He has already thrown more innings than he did last year and has excelled, recording a 3.13 ERA and 3.35 FIP. He threw a first-pitch strike to only 46.2% of the batters he faced in 2017 but has shown much more control this year, throwing a first-pitch strike 59.1% of the time. His strikeouts are back up as well with a 9.5 K/9. His first start of the week is a great matchup against a Marlins team that has scored the fewest runs in baseball. The Reds will be a tougher task, but they don’t exactly have an overpowering offense either.

Caleb Smith, Miami Marlins: at SD, at ARI

After getting a brief taste of the majors with the Yankees last year, Smith was traded to the rebuilding Marlins in the offseason. The Marlins were lacking starting pitching depth, resulting in Smith being a member of their rotation right out of the gate. He’s made a case to stay there for the foreseeable future, recording a 3.83 ERA, 3.04 FIP and 1.22 WHIP across 10 starts. He’s been a stellar source for strikeouts with an 11.9 K/9. If he is going to continue to have success, he’s likely going to need to cut down his 4.6 BB/9 significantly as the season wears on. This could be a great week for him, though, facing the Padres and Diamondbacks, two teams in the bottom-six in baseball in runs scored. Smith is currently available in 68% of Yahoo! leagues and is one of the stronger streaming options for Week 10.

Adam Plutko, Cleveland Indians: vs. CWS, at MIN

Josh Tomlin was a disaster to begin the season, which has resulted in Plutko getting a chance to start. He was pitching well at Triple-A with a 2.25 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher with a career 7.5 K/9 in the minors, but he has done a good job keeping runners off base with a 1.17 WHIP. He’s made two starts in the majors this year and threw six shutout innings with four strikeouts in his last outing against the Cubs. The White Sox and the Twins are both in the bottom-five in baseball in runs scored, so Plutko is someone to consider this week if you are desperate for pitching. He is still available in 94% of Yahoo! leagues.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 10

Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles: vs. WAS, vs. NYY

Bundy has been about as unpredictable as it gets this season. He has allowed three runs or fewer in seven of his 11 starts but has also given up at least seven runs three times. Homers have been a problem for him throughout his career and he has already allowed 14 in 62.2 innings this season. The Yankees have hit the most home runs in baseball and the Nationals have hit the fifth-most, so this could be the week to sit Bundy.

Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays: at BOS, at DET

Sanchez has been able to stay healthy, but his 4.07 ERA and 4.93 FIP are nothing to write home about. He’s allowing way too many baserunners with a 1.52 WHIP, largely because of his 5.5 BB/9. He’s never been a big strikeout pitcher either with a career 6.9 K/9. This will already be his third start of the season against the Red Sox, allowing five runs (four earned) across 11 innings in the first two. He did give up a home run in each start, though, and issued five walks, so he was anything but dominant. The Tigers start isn’t a horrible matchup, but having to face the Red Sox again makes him a risky option for your lineup.

Brandon McCarthy, Atlanta Braves: vs. NYM, vs. WAS

McCarthy is another pitcher who has flirted with danger this season with a 1.58 WHIP. He has been a bit unlucky with opponents posting a .350 BABIP against him, but he’s not fooling many hitters with just a 7.0% swinging-strike rate. He doesn’t pitch deep into games either, throwing at least six innings in only two of his 10 starts. The Mets and Nationals both have trouble hitting left-handed pitching, but they are also both in the top-10 in baseball in OPS against right-handers. Without much strikeout upside, McCarthy just isn’t worth the risk.

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 2

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 2

Earlybird special! Use Code PAMLB10 at checkout

Although this is the second week for most fantasy baseball leagues, it’s the first full week of games for the 2018 season. If you are playing in a head-to-head fantasy league, using starting pitchers that have two starts in a week can give you a significant edge over your opponent. He are some starters who will each start two games in the week ahead that you should either target or avoid for your lineup.

Starters With Favorable Matchups

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 2

Mike Clevinger, Cleveland Indians: at LAA, vs. KC

The big names in the Indians starting rotation are Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar, but Clevinger proved to be an important part of their rotation in 2017. He finished the year 12-6 with a 3.11 ERA and 10.1 K/9. Walks were an issue at 4.4 per nine innings, but he held opponents to just a .211 batting average. Getting two starts out of a pitcher with his strikeout upside can give you a significant edge in many leagues. His second start of the week against the Royals is especially favorable based on the losses they suffered to their lineup this winter.

Tyler Chatwood, Chicago Cubs: at CIN, at MIL

I was very high on Chatwood heading into this season and he gives those who drafted him a two-start week early in the season. Chatwood did not pitch well in Coors Field as a member of the Rockies last year, posting a 6.01 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 70.1 innings. He was much better on the road, finishing with a 3.49 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 77.1 innings. He’ll still have a potent lineup behind him in Chicago, which could have him in line for the best season of his career.

Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh Pirates: vs. MIN, vs. CIN

Taillon’s numbers from 2017 aren’t impressive as he finished with a 4.44 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. However, his FIP was 3.48, so he could be in line for improved numbers this season. Opponents also had a .359 BABIP against him last year, which should be in line for some regression towards the norm this season. Taillon only allowed 0.7 HR/9, which is important because he didn’t have overpowering stuff with an 8.4 K/9. Playing the Twins at home will help Taillon as he gets to avoid the DH.

Charlie Morton, Houston Astros: vs. BAL, vs. SD

Morton had one of the best seasons of his career in 2017 finishing with a career-high 14 wins to go along with a 3.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 10 K/9. He had a 3.46 FIP, opponents posted a .297 BABIP against him, and he only allowed 0.9 HR/9, so his numbers stand up past just the initial inspection. The Orioles really struggled offensively in their first series of the season, scoring a combined five runs in three games against the Twins. The Padres brought in Eric Hosmer during the winter, but their lineup still isn’t very imposing. Expect significant production for Morton in Week 2.

Starters to Avoid

MLB Fantasy Baseball Schedule Analysis for Week 2

Sean Newcomb and Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves: vs. WAS, at COL:

The Braves have two starters who will each get two starts this week, but they have very unfavorable matchups. First, they face the Nationals at home, who still have a very deep lineup despite the absence of Daniel Murphy (knee). Teheran really struggled at home last season, posting a 5.68 ERA compared to a 3.14 ERA on the road. After Newcomb and Teheran get through that, they then have to travel to hitter-friendly Coors Field. Both pitchers will provide value over the course of the long season, but this might be the week to keep them anchored to your bench.

Chris Tillman and Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles: at HOU, at NYY

Tillman was horrid for the Orioles last season, posting a 7.84 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. He’s bound to improve on those numbers this year, but his career 4.43 ERA and 4.66 FIP leave a lot to be desired. Unless you are in a very deep AL-only league, you shouldn’t be starting him regardless of opponent or number of starts he has in a given week. Bundy, on the other hand, is considered the future of the Orioles rotation at just 25 years old. He had a respectable 2017 campaign, finishing with a 4.24 ERA and 8.1 K/9. He did a great job keeping runner off base with a 1.20 WHIP, but his 1.4 HR/9 is an area of concern. He’ll face two of the more powerful lineups in all of baseball in Week 2, so it might be best to avoid him for your lineup.

Bryan Mitchell and Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres: vs. COL, at HOU

The Padres made some improvements to their lineup, but their starting rotation still has a long ways to go before they can become a playoff-caliber team. Ross rejoins the Padres after injuries limited him to just 54.1 innings in the last two seasons combined. His brief stint with the Rangers did not go well last season, finishing with a 7.71 ERA and 1.84 WHIP. Mitchell was brought over in a trade with the Yankees after bouncing between their bullpen and starting rotation. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, posting just a 5.9 K/9 during his career in the majors. He could be someone to consider streaming against favorable opponents, but that’s certainly not the case this week facing the Rockies and Astros. Don’t trust either Padres starter to help you win your league this week.