Header Image - PICK LIKE THE PROS
PICK LIKE THE PROSLineup Lab is an advanced MLB, NBA, NFL, and NHL daily fantasy lineup optimizer for Fanduel, Draftkings, and Yahoo. Pros use a DFS optimizer, so why don't you? Pick like the pros. Use the worlds most advanced projections and optimization techniques. Join today, and start winning!
start winning

Tag Archives

5 Articles

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 14

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

If you didn’t make the playoffs in your season-long fantasy football league, the fun isn’t over yet. Every week is a new opportunity to bring home some cash in DFS. We already discussed quarterbacks to target and avoid in DFS for Week 14, so now let’s dive into the rest of the positions to hopefully help you bring home some cash. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

RUNNING BACKS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 14

Christian McCaffrey vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $9,100
DraftKings = $9,300

McCaffrey continued his run of dominance against the Bucs in Week 13, turning 10 carries into 106 yards. He also caught nine of 10 targets for 55 yards and a touchdown. Not only has he been racking up yards in bunches, but he has 10 touchdowns across his last five games. Maybe the craziest stat of them all for McCaffrey is that he has been on the field for 97 percent of the Panthers offensive snaps. This is shaping up to be another great matchup for him in Week 14 against a Browns defense that has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (136.4) in the league to go along with 15 rushing touchdowns.

Aaron Jones vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Lambeau Field
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $7,200

Jones looked to finally be establishing himself as the lead running back for the Packers, but he was only on the field for 51 percent of their offensive snaps in Week 13. Even with his limited playing time, he still managed to score a touchdown for the fourth straight game. Maybe the biggest boost for his value moving forward was the dismissal of head coach Mike McCarthy after their embarrassing loss last week to the Cardinals. Despite is seeming obvious that Jones is their best running back, McCarthy still continued to force Jamaal Williams onto the field. If Jones gets the bulk of the carries in Week 14, he could explode against a Falcons defense that has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game (130.7) and 14 touchdowns on the ground.

Jeff Wilson Jr. vs. Denver Broncos
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
FanDuel = $5,600
DraftKings = $3,800

There was a lot of excitement around the 49ers heading into the season, but injuries have decimated them to the point where they are one of the worst teams in the league. Their most recent injury came to running back Matt Breida (ankle), who has already been ruled out for Week 14. Wilson did a nice job after Breida went down against the Seahawks, carrying the ball 15 times for 61 yards and catching eight of nine targets for 73 yards. He’ll likely get all the work he can handle Sunday, making him an extremely appealing option in tournament play based on his cheap price on both sites.

WIDE RECEIVERS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 14

Keenan Allen vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $7,900
DraftKings = $7,400

The Chargers were involved in a high-scoring affair against the Steelers last week, resulting in Allen catching 14 of 19 targets for 148 yards and a touchdown. He’s really started to turn things on down the stretch, hauling in 42 of 57 targets for 490 yards and four touchdowns across his last five games. That recent hot streak has left him just four yards shy of reaching 1,000 receiving yards for the second straight year. Expect him to blow past that number against the Bengals, who have allowed the second-most passing yards per game (280) and 26 passing touchdowns.

Chris Godwin vs. New Orleans Saints
Stadium – Raymond James Stadium
FanDuel = $5,600
DraftKings = $4,900

Godwin had one of the best games of his young career last week against the Panthers, catching five of six targets for 101 yards and a touchdown. It was certainly a favorable matchup against a porous Panthers secondary, but Godwin was also heavily involved because of the absence of DeSean Jackson (thumb). He was actually on the field for a season-high 80 percent of the Bucs offensive snaps. If Jackson is unable to play again in Week 14, Godwin is an excellent target against a Saints team that has allowed the third-most passing yards per game (279).

Courtland Sutton vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
FanDuel = $5,600
DraftKings = $4,500

The Broncos certainly don’t have an electric passing attack, but Sutton was productive in Week 13 with four catches on seven targets for 85 yards and a touchdown. He’s already received an expanded role after the Broncos traded Demaryius Thomas to the Texans and will be even more involved now after Emmanuel Sanders (Achilles) was placed on IR on Wednesday. This could be a dream matchup against the 49ers, who have allowed 27 passing touchdowns and picked off just two passes all season.

TIGHT ENDS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 14

Zach Ertz vs. Dallas Cowboys
Stadium – AT&T Stadium
FanDuel = $7,400
DraftKings = $6,400

The Eagles came away with a big divisional win against the Redskins last week, a game that saw Ertz catch nine of 10 targets for 83 yards. That marked the eighth game this season that Ertz has received at least 10 targets and his sixth with at least nine receptions. The Cowboys have had trouble slowing down tight ends this season, allowing 725 yards and five touchdowns to the position. That included Ertz destroying them in Week 10 for 14 catches, 145 yards, and two touchdowns. It will certainly be difficult for Ertz to duplicate those numbers, but he still has an extremely high floor.

Vance McDonald vs. Oakland Raiders
Stadium – Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
FanDuel = $5,500
DraftKings = $3,800

McDonald isn’t exactly on a roll right now with 28 receiving yards or fewer in four of his last five games. However, he received at least five targets in four of those five contests and also recorded touchdowns. The presence of Jesse James does eat into some of McDonald’s playing time, but he’s received 56 targets this year compared to just 35 for James. If you want to take a risk on a cheaper tight end in tournament play, the Raiders have allowed 896 receiving yards and nine touchdowns to the position this year.

DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 14

Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers
Stadium – Levi’s Stadium
FanDuel = $4,800
DraftKings = $3,600

Don’t look now, but the Broncos have won three straight games. Two of those victories were even against tough teams in the Chargers and Steelers. They have been winning on not only the strength of their running game but also their defense, which allowed a total of 49 points across those three games. They’ve also done a great job of creating turnovers during their winning streak with five interceptions and four fumble recovers. With all of the injuries that the 49ers have on offense, the Broncos defense has a favorable chance to keep things rolling again Sunday.

New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $2,500

The Giants allowed 27 points in their overtime victory against the Bears last week, but they did post five sacks, one fumble recovery and two interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. They took advantage of backup quarterback Chase Daniels and will face another backup in Mark Sanchez on Sunday, who has only been on the Redskins roster for a couple of weeks. The loss of safety Landon Collins (shoulder) is a huge blow for the Giants, but with all of the injuries the Redskins have suffered on offense, they should at least be considered in tournament play.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 – TE/DEF/ST

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

If you thought the tight end was position was thin in previous weeks, buckle up for the Week 6 schedule. The Eagles, Chiefs, and Patriots all won’t play during the main slate in DFS, leaving the position lacking the majority of the usual top options.  Let’s dive into the schedule and examine some players, and defenses/special teams, to target or avoid as you create your entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 - TE/DEF/ST

Eric Ebron vs. New York Jets
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $6,500
DraftKings = $5,400

With Jack Doyle out with an injury, it’s been the Ebron show in Indianapolis. He had a monster performance Week 5 against the Patriots, catching nine of 15 targets for 105 yards and two touchdowns. It marked the third straight week that Ebron has received at least 10 targets and the fourth time in five games that he has scored at least one touchdown. The yardage total was a bit out of character for him, though, considering he hadn’t posted more than 51 yards in any of his previous three contests.

Not only is Doyle likely to sit out again Sunday, but so is the Colts top wide receiver in T.Y. Hilton. Ebron should again get all the targets he can handle and be one of their main weapons when they get into the red zone. He now has 12 red zone targets this season, which is double Hilton’s mark of six that is second-highest on the team. The Jets have defended tight ends well this season, but Ebron should still get enough targets to provide a high floor. He did sit out practice both Wednesday and Thursday to rest a few injuries, but there has been no indication that he won’t play at this time.

Kyle Rudolph vs. Arizona Cardinals
Stadium – U.S. Bank Stadium
FanDuel = $6,200
DraftKings = $4,400

There is no question that Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are the main offensive weapons in the Vikings passing attack. The two have combined for 121 targets and 84 receptions. That being said, the Vikings have been one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league. Rudolph hasn’t had any eye-popping performances yet, but he does have at least five targets and at least five receptions in four straight games.

His worst yardage total came in Week 1 when he only caught one pass for 11 yards, but that one reception was for a touchdown.  He’s finished with at least 41 yards in all four games since and has significant touchdown upside. Ebron might have the highest floor of any tight end this week, but Rudolph has also been a steady contributor who is worth considering in cash games.

Chicago Bears vs. Miami Dolphins
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $4,500
DraftKings = $3,300

The Bears defense comes into this game well rested after a bye week. They had a very impressive performance Week 4 against a Bucs offense that entered the game firing on all cylinders, holding them to 10 points. Not only did they force four sacks, but they also recorded three interceptions. The Bears have posted at least four sacks and one interception in each of their four contests so far.

The Dolphins started the season 3-0, but have come back to reality with losses in both of their last two games. They scored a combined 24 points in those matchups as Ryan Tannehill threw only one touchdown compared to two interceptions. With the way the Bears are able to put pressure on the quarterback, this game could be a nightmare for the Dolphins.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 - TE/DEF/ST

David Njoku vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $5,500
DraftKings = $3,800

Njoku continued to show a good relationship with Baker Mayfield during Week 5 in a win over the Ravens. The Ravens have a strong defense, but Njoku was able to catch six of 11 targets for a season-high 69 yards. Njoku is still looking for his first touchdown of the season, but he’s clearly established himself as one of the top pass-catchers in the Browns offense by receiving at least seven targets in four of five games.

Njoku has been on the field for 83% of the Browns offensive plays, which is second on the team only to Jarvis Landry (92%). His 34 targets are also second to Landry and just ahead of Antonio Callaway (30). The Browns offense is more explosive with Mayfield at quarterback, which should lead to added opportunities for Njoku again Sunday.

Vance McDonald vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Stadium – Paul Brown Stadium
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $3,400

McDonald laid an egg last week in what looked like a chance to shine against a bad Falcons secondary. He finished with one reception on two targets for six yards after receiving at least three targets in each of his first three games. The Steelers were up big after three quarters, which led to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to attempt a season-low 29 passes. He had averaged 46.5 pass attempts across his first four games.

On a positive note, McDonald was on the field for 61% of the Steelers offensive plays last week, which was actually higher than his season average of 54%. Some people may be wary of playing him this week after his poor stat line, but don’t overlook him in tournament play. He still carries upside and can help with your budget at this cheap price.

Miami Dolphins vs. Chicago Bears
Stadium – Hard Rock Stadium
FanDuel = $3,500
DraftKings = $2,600

The Bengals scored 27 points against the Dolphins last week, but they were aided by two defensive scores. The Dolphins defense didn’t play all that poorly and their special teams provided a punt return for a touchdown. With yet another interception, the Dolphins have at least one pick in each game this year and lead the league with 10 overall.

The Dolphins have done a good job keeping opposing teams out of the end zone, although they haven’t exactly faced a bunch of offensive juggernauts with some of their opponents including the Titans, Jets, and Raiders. The Bears may have exploded for 48 points in Week 4, but quarterback Mitch Trubisky had two touchdowns and three interceptions over the first three weeks. Both defenses in this game could be strong plays with the Dolphins being the more cost-effective option to consider in tournament play.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 6 - TE/DEF/ST

Greg Olsen vs. Washington Redskins
Stadium – FedEx Field
FanDuel = $5,900
DraftKings = $4,300

Olsen reinjured his foot in the first game of the season and hasn’t played since. He’s decided to put off surgery in an attempt to play again this year and is trending in the right direction to return for Week 6. As one of their top pass-catching options, his return would be a welcome sight for the Panthers’ offense. However, it’s unclear how much he’ll be able to play in this contest and how effective he’ll be in his first game in over a month. It might be best to take a wait and see approach with Olsen before rostering him in DFS.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $4,300
DraftKings = $2,700

The Chargers had by far their best defensive showing of the season last week by holding the Raiders to 10 points. They had allowed an average of 30 points over their first four games. They have faced two great offenses in the Chiefs and Rams, but their other three games this year have come against poor offensive teams in the Bills, 49ers, and Raiders. The Browns now have a more explosive element to their offense with Mayfield and they have a few talented options around him, so it wouldn’t be all that surprising for them to have a strong showing this week. I’d particularly stay away from the Chargers based on their FanDuel price, but they might be best to avoid on both sites.

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 5 – TE/DEF/ST

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

*Mike Barner — @rotomikebarner*

Reader-only discount! Use code EBIRD15 at checkout to save 15%.

It seems like every week another tight end is lost to a significant injury. Week 4 was no different as Tyler Eifert went down for the season with an ankle injury. This might be the thinnest the tight end position has been in a long time, but there are still options out there for Week 5 that could provide significant returns. Let’s dive into the schedule and examine some players, and defenses/special teams, to target or avoid as you create your DFS entry. Don’t forget to sign up for our Newsletter and try our Playerlab tool, where you can filter the stats that matter the most and help build a winning entry on FanDuel and DraftKings.

CASH CONTEST OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 5 - TE/DEF/ST

Zach Ertz vs. Minnesota Vikings
Stadium – Lincoln Financial Field
FanDuel = $7,500
DraftKings = $6,500

There isn’t much risk involved when you roll with Ertz in DFS. He’s received at least 10 targets in each game this year, including a season-high 14 in Week 14 even with the return of Alshon Jeffery. Although Ertz has yet to find the end zone, he has finished with at least 73 receiving yards in three of four contests.

It’s not all that surprising that Ertz still received a ton of targets in Jeffery’s first game of the season. The Eagles rely on Ertz heavily in the passing game, resulting in him getting at least 106 targets in three straight seasons. Opposing tight ends only have one touchdown against the Vikings this season, but they have allowed 246 receiving yards to the position. Two of their four games have come against the Bills and Rams, too, neither of which have a lot of talent at tight end. Expect another reliable performance from Ertz.

Jared Cook vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Stadium – StubHub Center
FanDuel = $5,900
DraftKings = $4,800

Cook didn’t exactly have a banner campaign in his first year with the Raiders, catching 54 of 86 targets for 688 yards. He finished the year with just two touchdowns, giving him three total scores across the last three seasons. The change at head coach has done wonders for Cook through four games this year, resulting in him posting 26 receptions on 35 targets for 370 yards and two touchdowns. After finishing with at least 100 yards in a game two times in 2017, he’s already reached that threshold twice through Week 4.

It’s certainly encouraging for Cook’s value moving forward that he has received at least 10 targets twice this season, especially since he had no more than nine in any game last year. His 74.3% catch rate is also a big improvement over his 62.8% mark in 2017. The Chargers have had no problems scoring points, so the Raiders might be forced to throw a lot to keep up, which only further adds to Cook’s upside.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
Stadium – CenturyLink Field
FanDuel = $4,700
DraftKings = $3,800

The Rams defense started out strong by allowing 13 points across the first two weeks. Their fortunes have changed since, allowing 54 points over their last two contests. One of the main reasons for their struggles of late is their injuries at cornerback. Aqib Talib is on IR with an ankle injury and Marcus Peters is battling a calf strain.

The good news for the Rams is that even with all of their issues the last two weeks, they recorded six sacks and three fumble recoveries. They still put a lot of pressure on the opposing quarterbacks, which could spell doom for Russell Wilson since he has already been sacked 16 times. The Seahawks did get Doug Baldwin back last week, but their offense still isn’t all that explosive. The Rams might not have the ceiling they would if they were healthy at cornerback, but they are one of the top defenses for Week 5.

GPP TOURNAMENT OPTIONS

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 5 - TE/DEF/ST

David Njoku vs. Baltimore Ravens
Stadium – FirstEnergy Stadium
FanDuel = $5,200
DraftKings = $3,400

Njoku was active in Baker Mayfield’s first career start, catching five passes for 52 yards. He finished the game with seven targets, marking the third time this season that he has received seven targets. However, he finished with a catch rate of 57.1% or lower in the first two weeks compared to 71.4% in Week 4.

The move from Tyrod Taylor to Mayfield provides a boost to the majority of the skill players on the Browns offense. Mayfield will go through some growing pains, but Taylor had never averaged more than 216.8 passing yards per game during any season of his career. This is no easy task against a tough Ravens defense, but the volume of passes that Njoku gets thrown his way at least makes him someone to consider.

Vance McDonald vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Heinz Field
FanDuel = $4,600
DraftKings = $3,700

After sitting out the first game of the season, McDonald has received exactly five targets in each of the Steelers three games since. He followed up his monster 112-yard performance from Week 3 with 62 yards and a season-high five receptions in Week 4. An encouraging trend is that McDonald has seen his snap percentage increase each game, topping out at 62% last week.

This game should be a shootout based on how poorly both defenses have played. The Steelers have great weapons at wide receiver but expect McDonald to still be heavily involved. With all the injuries the Falcons have been dealt at linebacker and safety, teams can exploit the middle of the field against them. At this cheap price, McDonald has an opportunity to provide significant returns in tournament play.

Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets
Stadium – MetLife Stadium
FanDuel = $4,100
DraftKings = $3,200

Although the Broncos lost last week, their defense didn’t play all that poorly against the potent Chiefs. They only allowed 10 points in the first half and the 27 total points that the Chiefs scored in the game marked their lowest output of the season. In fact, the Chiefs had scored at least 38 points in each of their first three contests.

The downside with the Broncos defense is that they haven’t created a turnover since forcing three in Week 1. Expect them to get back into that column Sunday against Sam Darnold, who has thrown at least one pick in three of four games. The Jets passing attack hasn’t been great, either, with Darnold throwing for fewer than 200 yards three of four weeks. If you don’t want to pay up for the Rams, the Broncos are a viable option.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

NFL Daily Fantasy Football Recommendations for Week 5 - TE/DEF/ST

Jesse James vs. Atlanta Falcons
Stadium – Heinz Field
FanDuel = $5,200
DraftKings = $3,100

James started the first two games for the Steelers, catching eight of 10 targets for 198 yards and a touchdown. However, now that McDonald is completely healthy, James has received just two targets combined across the last two games. His snap percentage has also decreased each week, bottoming out at 44% in Week 4. McDonald is the Steelers tight end you want to roll with this week, not James. McDonald is even cheaper than James on FanDuel.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stadium – Arrowhead Stadium
FanDuel = $4,500
DraftKings = $2,800

The Jaguars defense has done a good job keeping teams out of the end zone, but they have only forced three turnovers this season, two of which came in Week 1. Outside of their Week 2 matchup against the Patriots, they haven’t exactly faced offensive juggernauts in the Giants, Titans, and Jets. This will be an extremely tough test against the Chiefs, so starting their defense seems like an unnecessary risk to take, especially based on how expensive they are on FanDuel.

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

by Chris Tierney - cstcst 0 Comments

*Chris Tierney – cstcst*

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

If you’re playing DFS this weekend don’t get fancy.  Who is going to win the game and how?  Answer these questions for yourself prior to constructing anything from a lineup perspective.  Making more than one lineup?  Alter who will win and how a bit and construct again, all while keeping a similar core lineup.

As Demarcus Robinson and Josh Hill demonstrated last weekend, roughly one obscure player POPS in each playoff game.  It will likely take having one of these guys on your squad to take down a large GPP.  Rostering players such as these are a true dart throw and the risk often outweighs the reward.  My dart throws this week are Vance McDonald and Corey Davis.  Both guys can make the big play and both have decent matchups.  The Jags have a great defensive backfield and are also adept at rushing the passer.  Quick hitting plays to the TE and RB are two ways to attach a defense like the Jaguars.  Vance McDonald made some big plays for the 49ers last season and has seen his role expand down the stretch after being injured for much of the season.  Corey Davis’s role continues to expand in the Titans passing game.  He had a serviceable game last weekend and faces another spotty secondary this week in a game where his offense will likely have to throw the football.

Put your favorite recommendations from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your personal favorites from the NFL Player Lab.

 

 

Atlanta (-3.5, 41) at Philadelphia

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

On paper, this sure looks like a 26-13 or thereabouts Falcons win.  They are a veteran-led group with an improving defense who is accustomed to the pressures of the playoffs.  Paper doesn’t mean much come kickoff.  This will be an interesting game and it will be roaring in Philly.  There are some interesting options here but this game isn’t where the majority of my focus will be this weekend.

DFS Chalk:  Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Zack Ertz, Devonta Freeman

DFS Value: Nick Foles, Nelson Agholor, Tevin Coleman, Mohamed Sanu, Jay Ajayi

 

Tennessee at New England (-14, 48)

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

This game has the opportunity to shoot out.  Will the real New England defense please stand up?  Statistically, they’ve been one of the worst units in the NFL this season but they’ve bowed their backs when it mattered most, allowing them to take the Division and home-field advantage yet again.  Tennessee’s pass defense has been a sieve which shines a light upon his Greatness and his favorite Tight End.  I think New England wins here, but I think it will be more difficult than many expect.  The Titans gained some confidence last weekend and I expect their offense to have some success.  I think there are a bunch of players worth rostering in this game.  Remember, Belichick likes to neutralize one aspect of his opponent’s offense.  That has to be the Tennessee running-game right?  #gametheory – Tennessee passing attack is interesting to me in GPP situations.  The return of Hogan should lighten the targets to Cooks here.

DFS Chalk: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Dion Lewis, Delanie Walker, Derrick Henry  

DFS Value: Corey Davis, Eric Decker, James White, Rex Burkhead, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, Rishard Matthews

 

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-7, 41)

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

Sunday should be the fun day for this weekends slate and kicks off with a very interesting matchup in Pittsburgh.  If Ryan Shazier were healthy, I’d think this was a slam dunk Steelers victory.  As we all now, he sadly is not (keep on getting well Ryan!), and the Steelers run defense has not looked the same.  They’ll copy the Bills blueprint and load the box with eight men.  Will Nathan Hackett trust Blake Bortles here?  Will they allow him to attack this Steelers defense down the field with Lee, Hurns and Westbrook?  That is likely their plan and without something like it, they’ll be cleaning out their lockers early next week.  The Steelers offense has the tough chore of the Jaguars defense.  The Jags will slow the Steelers down some here, but the Jags offense has to apply pressure to this Steelers team.  An upset here wouldn’t shock me but I think this is perhaps the most interesting matchup of the playoffs thus far and will be telling about the Steelers Championship hopes.

DFS Chalk: Big Ben, LeVeon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster

DFS Value: Vance McDonald, Dede Westbrook, Mercedes Lewis, Marqise Lee

 

New Orleans at Minnesota (-4.5, 46.5)

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

Like our Carolina | New Orleans call last week, this is the one with the best opportunity to shoot out and could be a thrilling final game to the weekend.  The Vikings are legit, but so are the Saints.  Both of these teams are formidable on both sides of the ball and both teams have offensive players who can score from anywhere on the field.  I prefer Minnesota here but as anyone who follows the NFL knows, the Saints offense is capable of moving 85 yards in two or three plays at any time.

DFS Chalk: Case Keenum, Adam Thielen, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara

DFS Value: Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon, Kyle Rudolph, Ted Ginn, Brandon Coleman, Josh Hill

 

Top GPP Stacks:

NFL Divisional Round DFS Strategy: Advice, Picks, Sleepers for Draftkings, Fanduel Playoff Tournaments

1a: Case Keenum, Jerick Mckinnon, Stephon Diggs, Michael Thomas

2a: Tom Brady, James White, Rob Gronkowski, Corey Davis

 

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 17

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

* Cesar Becerra *

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 17

As I prefaced the article last week, the final two weeks of the NFL season are often the toughest to digest from a DFS perspective. Last week we didn’t see any teams rest any of their star players, but this week we have an entirely different scenario. We’ve already received reports that the Steelers, Rams, Eagles, Chiefs, and potentially the Vikings and Jaguars are all resting their starters.

We have a few teams like the Vikings, Saints, Panthers, Falcons, Seahawks, Patriots, Steelers,  Ravens, Chargers, Titans, and Bills all still fighting for either their playoff lives of their playoff positioning. Here is a thorough look at what the Week 17 playoff scenarios look like.

 

Vegas

As you’d expect with all the late news about teams sitting their star players we’ve seen a lot of movement within the Vegas lines. The largest line movement of the week was a 10 point swing with the 49ers going from +6.5 underdogs to a -3.5 favorite. The following are the biggest shifts in the Vegas lines Browns (+14.5 to 7), Colts ( +o to -5.5), Cowboys (+1 to -3), Seahawks (-7.5 to -10), and Jags (+5 to +3).

Despite the line movements, there are still seven teams that are more than a touchdown favorite, the Patriots (-16.5), Vikings (-13), Seahawks (-10), Ravens (-10), Chargers (-7.5), Steelers & Saints (-7). Most of these teams also sit with the highest implied team total starting with the Patriots (30). Followed by Saints (28.25), Vikings (26.25), Ravens (25), Lions (24.74), Chargers (24.75), Falcons (24.5), Seahawks (24.25), and 49ers (23.25).

There aren’t many games with incredibly high over/under with only two games sitting with a game total over 45, (NO @ TB 49.5) and (ATL @ CAR 45). There are 8 games  (CIN @ BAL 40), (CHI @ MIN 39.5), (WAS @ NYG 39.5), (DAL @ PHI 39), (ARI @ SEA 38.5), (KC @ DEN 38.5), (CLE @ PIT 36.5) with game totals of 40 points or less, which leaves game stacks hard to come by for this slate.

This data was taken as of Friday afternoon, but as always, you should always check back at Vegas Insiders on Sunday morning.

Quarterbacks

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 17 - Lineuplabs.com

Russell Wilson (DK $6,900) – Wilson might be the safest play at quarterback this week, and unfortunately, he doesn’t come cheap as he is the highest priced quarterback on the slate. But with all these secondary players playing this week, there is a ton of value on this slate. Wilson checks the all the boxes you would ask for during week 17. He has a decent team total (24.25), is playing as a home favorite, and is playing for their playoff lives. He’s facing the Cardinals who rank 8th in aFPA, but Wilson has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league following the Seahawks’ bye this season.

Jimmy Garoppolo (DK $6,700) –  At this point, nothing else can be said other than Jimmy G is the GOAT. He is coming off of a week where he destroyed the best defense in the league by completing 70% of his passes. He has exceeded his value in 3 of his first 4 starts with the 49ers and now faces the Rams who will likely be rolling out second stringers. The matchup doesn’t look great on paper (Rams rank 5th in aFPA vs. QB), but the 49ers offense is white hot right now and if the Rams most of their starters, look for Garoppolo to have a field day to ride into the offseason with a perfect 7-0 record as a starter.

Patrick Mahomes (DK $4,700) – After the news broke that Andy Reid was going to rest Alex Smith in the final regular season game, Mahomes immediately became the best value play at the quarterback position. During the preseason, Mahomes completed  63% his 54 passes for 390 yards and four touchdowns and no interceptions. He also showed his athleticism that we saw so much in college with 8 rushes for 44 yards. I’ve noted in the past that the Broncos secondary is not as scary as they used to be (16th in aFPA) and have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns in the league (29). Mahomes will be the chalk for people paying down at QB

Cash:

R. Wilson, J. Garoppolo, C. Newton,  P. Mahomes, K. Cousins, P. Mahomes

GPP:

(all of above), M. Stafford, P. Rivers, T. Taylor, M. Ryan, J. Brissett

Running backs

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 17 - Lineuplabs.com

Alvin Kamara (DK $7,900) – With the news that Bell and Gurley are sitting the high tier at running back is very thin. I also expect Kareem Hunt (7,600), Leonard Fournette (7,100), and potentially Melvin Gordon (7,400) to all sit or be very limited so I will be staying away from them. That makes Kamara my favorite high priced back. Kamara has seen his price dip below 8k for the first time since in five weeks, which is appropriate given that he hasn’t met salary expectations in 3 of the last 4 games. This week the Saints still have an opportunity to clinch the division and are going up against the Bucs who rank 21st in aFPA against running backs. Kamara already destroyed the Bucs back in week 9 when he put up 32.2 DK points and totaled 2 touchdowns with 152 yards.

Kenyan Drake (DK $7,200) – I surprisingly haven’t heard many people talking up Drake this week, so it seems that I will be overexposed to the field this week. Drake has crushed value in 4 of his past 5 games and last week he only got 13 touches because of the game flow. This week the Dolphins are at small underdogs (+2.5) at home against the Bills. The Bills are dead last in aFPA, and Drake smashed them two weeks ago for 23.3 DK points and 113 total yards with one score. Drake is coming in as a sneaky tournament play. I’m not sure if I can play him in cash given the uber chalk  Dion Lewis is $400 cheaper, but I like him as a pivot for tournaments.

Derrick Henry (DK $5,500) – Henry is finally expected to work as the Titans’ featured back with DeMarco Murray expected to either be limited or inactive with an MCL sprain. Football fans have long been waiting for the former Heisman trophy winner to get a full workload and he appears in line for that against the Jags who have a run funnel defense, ranking 25th in aFPA vs. running backs and 9th in aFPA vs. quarterbacks. Henry is the chalk for value running backs this week.

Cash:

A. Kamara, D. Lewis, M. Ingram, C. McCaffrey, D. Henry

GPP:

(all of above), K. Drake, E. Elliott, C. Hyde, A. Collins, J. Williams

Wide Receivers

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 17 - Lineuplabs.com

Julio Jones (DK $8,200) – Julio comes in as the chalk this week at wide receiver.  He’s averaging at least 7 targets the past 16 games and is going up against the Panthers who rank 30th in aFPA. In Julio’s first time facing the Panthers, he went off for 20.8 DK points with 6 catches for 118 yards. In a must-win game for the Falcons, look for Matt Ryan to force feed Julio like he did last week against the Saints. Julio will be the highest owned receiver, but I don’t mind pivoting to Keenan Allen against the Raiders (22nd aFPA vs. WR) if you’re willing to eat the ownership on Julio.

TY Hilton (DK $5,900) – Hilton is the other chalk wide receiver. He’s coming off of a 6 catch, 100-yard performance against the Ravens who are a top 10 team against defending wide receivers. Hilton now gets the Texans who are dead last in aFPA to wide receivers. Earlier this season Hilton torched the Texans for 37.5 DK points on 5 catches for 175 yards and 2 touchdowns. Hilton has 29 targets in the past 4 weeks of tough matchups (Baltimore (12), Broncos (7), Bills (4), & Jags (6). He is 48 yards shy of his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season, so I expect Brissett to feed him the ball.

Randall Cobb (DK $4,700) – With the reports that Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson will be out week 17, that makes Cobb the new number 1 target for Brett Hundley. Cobb has 29 targets in the past 3 weeks, and the supporting cast will feature Geronimo Allison (3,200) and Michael Clark (3,000). Cobb should be a lock to see double-digit targets and goes up against the Lions who rank 26th in aFPA.

Cash:

J. Jones, K. Allen, A. Green, T. Hilton, M. Goodwin, D. Baldwin, M. Jones, M. Thomas

GPP:

(all of above), J. Crowder, R. Anderson, R. Cobb, J. Doctson, W. Fuller, D. Amendola

Tight End

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 17

Rob Gronkowski (DK $7,000) – Gronk earns a $2M bonus if he accomplishes either of these stats. 11 catches for 80 on the season or 116 yards to reach 1,200 for the season. #NarrativeStreet.

Greg Olsen (DK $5,600) – Greg Olsen has seen a total of 18 targets in his last two games since returning from injured reserve. In that span, he has 12 catches for 143 yards and 1 touchdown. This week he faces the Falcons in a pivotal game for the Panthers to clinch the division. Olsen could see anywhere between 6-10 targets against the Falcons who rank 14th in aFPA.

Vance McDonald (DK $2,700) – In the past two games where McDonald was active, he has seen 11 targets for 8 catches and 104 yards. McDonald has worked his way into becoming the primary pass catcher over Jesse James and faces the Browns who rank 27th in aFPA to opposing tight ends. In a game that doesn’t feature Ben, Brown, or Bell, Landry Jones could check down to McDonald often.

Cash:

R. Gronkowski, G. Olsen, J. Doyle, C. Clay

GPP:

(all of above), J. Graham, E. Ebron

Defense

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 17

Seattle Seahawks (DK $3,400) – I like the Seattle defense to step up big at home in a must-win game against Drew Stanton. They aren’t quite the same legion of boom that they were a few years ago, but they are coming off of their best performance of the season (20 DK points) with 3 turnovers. Stanton hasn’t been awful but did throw 2 interceptions last week against the putrid Giants secondary.

Cash:

Patriots, Seahawks, 49ers

GPP:

Ravens, Vikings, Chiefs