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Fantasy Football Season Preview: Tight Ends and Defenses/Special Teams 2017

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

**Mike Barner**

Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends and Defenses/Special Teams 2017

The long journey through the NFL season is rapidly approaching, meaning it’s one of the most exciting times of the year: drafting your fantasy football team. While you need your players to stay healthy and have a little luck go your way, having a strong draft can go a long way to determining the fate of your season.

Lineup Lab is here to help you come away a winner. In the fourth and final of our season previews, we’ll break down tight ends and defenses/special teams. Quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers get most of the attention, but having a quality tight end on your roster can help elevate your squad to a championship level.

While most owners wait to select defenses/special teams until the final rounds of your draft, that doesn’t mean it’s a throwaway position. Finding one that can create turnovers, accumulate sacks and throw in the occasional return touchdown can provide plenty of valuable points for your team.

Let’s examine some tight ends and defenses/special teams to target and avoid as you navigate your way through your draft.

Martellus Bennett - Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends 2017

Old Faces In New Places

Martellus Bennett – Green Bay Packers

You can put Bennett into this category just about every season as the Packers will be his fifth different team in the last seven seasons. He had the best season of his career in 2014 as a member of the Chicago Bears as he recorded 90 receptions for 916 yards and six touchdowns. The Patriots signed him to be their second tight end last season, but he ended up with a larger role than expected as Rob Gronkowski was injured yet again. Bennett played all 16 games and finished with 55 receptions, 701 yards and seven touchdowns.

Bennett will be the undisputed starter in Green Bay, becoming possibly the most talented tight end that quarterback Aaron Rodgers has had the pleasure of playing with. Last season’s tight end duo of Jared Cook and Richard Rodgers combined for 60 receptions, 648 yards and three touchdowns.

Bennett is certainly a better player than either Cook or Rodgers and should present a better red zone target as well. The Packers have a great receiving trio of Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams as well Ty Montgomery to catch passes out of the backfield, which could limit Bennett’s receptions a bit. With that being said, Bennett is still likely to be a top-10 fantasy option at tight end.

Julius Thomas – Miami Dolphins

Thomas had his breakout campaign as a member of the Denver Broncos in 2013 when he posted 65 receptions, 788 yards and 12 touchdowns. Although he only had 43 receptions and 489 yards in 2014, he still provided a ton of value as he again scored 12 touchdowns. It appeared he was going to be one of the elite red zone targets among tight ends in all of football for years to come.

His success was short lived though as he moved on to the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2015. Injuries limited him during his tenure with the team as he missed 11 games over the last two seasons. 2016 was a complete disaster as he only had 30 receptions, 281 yards and four touchdowns.

Now a member of the Dolphins, Thomas is looking to rejuvenate his career under the eye of coach Adam Gase. It’s important to note that Gase was on the Broncos’ staff when Thomas was playing at his best. Even though that would appear to be in Thomas’ favor, I’d still stay away from making him your starting tight end.

Tyler Eifert - Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends 2017

Overrated Players

Tyler Eifert – Cincinnati Bengals

Eifert’s best season came in 2015 when he had 52 receptions, 615 yards and an impressive 13 touchdowns in only 13 games. To put that into perspective, Gronk had 11 touchdowns that same season despite playing in two more games and Eifert. That excellent season vaulted Eifert towards the top of the tight end position for fantasy owners last season, but he couldn’t cash in as he was limited to only eight games due to injury.

Eifert supporters will point to the fact that he has 20 touchdowns in 37 career games. That is certainly elite production, but what is more important to note is that those 37 games have come over four seasons. Playing less than 10 games a year on average is a killer for his fantasy value. While he could be a top-5 tight end when healthy, the odds of him staying healthy for an entire season are not great. If you want to take a risk and draft him based on his upside, be sure to not overpay for him on draft day. Based on his current ADP though, you’ll likely have to.

Denver Broncos

To make this clear right off the bat, the Broncos are an excellent defensive team. They allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL last season and had more interceptions (14) than passing touchdowns allowed (13). Their 42 sacks were tied for third most in the league. Even though they weren’t as impressive against the run, they were still around the middle of the pack in rushing touchdowns allowed at 15.

The reason I believe the Broncos defense/special teams is overrated is because it’s likely going to cost you a pick that is higher than either of your last two selections, which is where you should be selecting your defense/special teams and kicker. Looking at ESPN standard scoring last season, the Broncos actually scored the second most fantasy points behind the Minnesota Vikings. The difference between the highest scoring defense/special teams and the tenth highest was only an average of three fantasy points per game.

A difference of three fantasy points per game is not worth reaching for the Broncos. I’d rather take a running back or wide receiver with upside at that point in the draft and worse case scenario, stream my defense/special team throughout the season based on weekly match ups.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends 2017 - Zach Ertz

Undervalued Players

Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles

On an Eagles team that lacked talented wide receivers last season, Ertz played a major role in their passing attack as he had 78 receptions for 816 yards and four touchdowns. He caught 74% of the passes thrown his way and averaged 10.5 yards per reception. Among fellow tight ends, Ertz ranked fifth in both receptions and receiving yards.

Ertz has been very consistent in his career, recording at least 702 receiving yards in each of the last three seasons. The last two seasons have been even better as he has at least 106 targets and 75 receptions in both years. He has also averaged at least 10.5 yards per reception in all four of his seasons in the league.

Although the Eagles are much improved this season with the additions of Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith, Ertz is still going to be a very important part of their offense. Quarterback Carson Wentz also looks primed to improve his game, which could provide a boost for Ertz. He might not score a ton of touchdowns, but his consistency and yardage provides a lot of value.

Austin Hooper – Atlanta Falcons

Hooper was selected in the third round of the 2016 draft, but he had a quiet rookie season last year as he had 19 receptions for 271 yards and three touchdowns. He only received 27 targets, so he really wasn’t that involved in the offense in general. One of his best games of the season though actually came in the Super Bowl as he had three receptions on six targets for 32 yards and a touchdown.

Hooper didn’t have great numbers last year partially because he was in a time share with Jacob Tamme. Tamme finished the season with 22 receptions, 210 yards and three touchdowns. As a unit, Falcons tight ends finished the season with 788 yards and 10 touchdowns. With Tamme now gone, Hooper is lined up to take over the starting job in only his second season in the league.

The Falcons passing offense was one of the best in the league last year, finishing third in passing yards, tied for second in passing touchdowns and first in yards per pass attempt. With a more prominent role in the offense, Hooper is going to have a chance to establish himself as a viable fantasy option this year. I think at worse he is a top-15 tight end who has the potential to finish in the top-10. Considering how late he is going in drafts, he could be one of the best value picks at the tight end position.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Tight Ends 2017 - Houston Texans

A Look At The Fantasy Playoff Schedule

Another key part of your research is to know who has favorable match ups during the fantasy football playoffs, generally weeks 15 and 16 in most leagues. Let’s dive in and see where you can gain that edge.

Favorable Schedules

Houston Texans

The Texans defense/special team starts off the fantasy playoffs by taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road in Week 15. While the Jaguars drafted promising running back Leonard Fournette, they are just a mess at quarterback as Blake Bortles has regressed significantly. They certainly do not have the makings of a potent offense. Week 16 brings a match up against the Pittsburgh Steelers, which would appear difficult on the surface, but is more favorable when you consider the game is being played in Houston. As noted in our quarterbacks season preview, Ben Roethlisberger struggles significantly on the road. Things are looking up for the Texans fantasy value at the right time this year.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs face the Los Angeles Charges in Week 15, a team that does have some fire power. However, this is a home game for Kansas City and they allowed only 16 points per game at home last season. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is prone to throwing interceptions as well as he has at least 18 in two of the last three seasons. Week 16 brings another home game, this time against the Miami Dolphins. Dolphins quarterback Jay Cutler also turns the ball over a lot as he has thrown 34 interceptions in his last 35 games. Getting two turnover-prone quarterbacks at home is a major win for the Chiefs during the fantasy playoffs.

Difficult Schedules

Jordan Reed – Washington Redskins

I mentioned this before when talking about Tyrelle Pryor in the wide receivers preview, but the Redskins have a brutal schedule when it matters the most. Week 15 brings a contest against the Arizona Cardinals who allowed the fourth fewest passing yards and were tied for the eighth fewest passing touchdowns allowed. Week 16 brings the stingy Broncos who allowed the fewest passing yards and fewest passing touchdowns last season. Reed certainly has his work cut out for him.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are faced with two road games during the fantasy playoffs. Week 15 will be against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have added wide receiver DeSean Jackson and tight end O.J. Howard to go along with Mike Evans and Cameron Brate. Entering his third season in the NFL, quarterback Jameis Winston is poised to take the Bucs offense to the next level. Week 16 brings the nightmare match up against the New Orleans Saints in New Orleans. Last season, the Saints scored 32 points against the Falcons when they met them at home as Drew Brees threw for 376 yards and three touchdowns. While I’m not high on the Falcons defense to begin with, you definitely want to avoid them down the stretch.

Fantasy Football Season Preview: Wide Receivers 2017

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

**Mike Barner**

Fantasy Football Season Preview Wide Receivers 2017

The long journey through the NFL season is rapidly approaching, meaning it’s one of the most exciting times of the year: drafting your fantasy football team. While you need your players to stay healthy and have a little luck go your way, having a strong draft can go a long way to determining the fate of your season.

Lineup Lab is here to help you come away a winner. In the third of our season previews, we’ll break down the wide receiver position. With the creation of PPR scoring, wide receivers are more valuable now than ever before. Even in standard scoring, creating a stable of quality receivers can help separate you from your competition. Teams are throwing the ball a lot now and using three-receiver sets more often, creating tremendous depth at the position for fantasy owners.

Whether you want to draft elite wide receivers early or select a sleeper or two in the later rounds, we’ll examine some players to target and avoid as you navigate your way through your draft.

Brandin Cooks - New England Patriots - Fantasy Football Season Preview Wide Receivers 2017

Old Faces In New Places

Brandin Cooks – New England Patriots

Cooks is coming off back-to-back seasons with at least 1,138 receiving yards and at least eight receiving touchdowns. He has increased his yards per reception in each season of his career, culminating in 15 yards per reception last season. The Saints threw plenty of passes his way as he had 78 receptions on 117 targets last season.

He moves on to the defending champion Patriots this year after being acquired for a first round draft pick. The Patriots are now loaded at wide receiver with Cooks joining the returning cast of Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell. Throw in tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Dwayne Allen to go along with running backs who can also catch the ball out of the back field and the result is one scary offense.

While quarterback Tom Brady must be excited about all the talent around him, the move to New England did not helps Cooks fantasy value. Edelman had 98 receptions last season, but the receiver with the next most catches was Hogan with only 38. While Edelman might lose some of his workload to Cooks, it’s hard to imagine Cooks getting the same amount of targets he did in New Orleans. He can still have a valuable season, but don’t expect him to be more than a WR2 this season.

Brandon Marshall – New York Giants

The Giants now have a scary wide receiver trio consisting of Marshall, Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard. While Victor Cruz carried significant name recognition, he didn’t fit well with the Giants scheme last season. Cruz is better suited to play in the slot, a position that was occupied by Shepard the majority of the time.

While Cruz wasn’t able to produce on the outside, that is where Marshall has thrived over the course of his career. He had a down year with the New York Jets last season as he only recorded 59 receptions for 788 yards and three touchdowns. However, it’s no secret that the Jets had some of the worst quarterback play in the league.

One stat that jumps out is that Marshall only had a 46.1 catch percentage last season. That was by far the worst percentage of his career and was more than 10 percent worse than every season outside of his rookie campaign.

Marshall’s fantasy prospects have improved with the Giants as although he is clearly their number two receiver, he should see plenty of red zone targets. The Giants use a lot of three-receiver sets and attempted 598 passes last season, good for eighth most in the NFL.

Marshall hold’s more value in standard leagues than in PPR, but expect him to bounce back and  be in the WR2 discussion with Big Blue.

Allen Robinson - Fantasy Football Season Preview Wide Receivers 2017 - Jacksonville Jaguars

Overrated Players

Allen Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars

Robinson took the fantasy world by storm in 2015 when he had 80 receptions for 1,400 yards and a whopping 14 touchdowns. He averaged 87.5 yards per game and an impressive 17.5 yards per reception. Big things were expected from Robinson again in 2016, making him a selection among the first group of wide receivers taken in most fantasy drafts.

Unfortunately for those who drafted Robinson early, he took a significant step back in 2016. He finished the season with 73 receptions for 883 yards and six touchdowns. His targets were identical in both 2015 and 2016 at 151, but the big difference was his yardage and touchdown totals. Players taken far later than him in most drafts who had more receiving yards last season include Mike Wallace (1,017 yards), Michael Crabtree (1,003 yards)and Rishard Matthews (945 yards).

The main reason for Robinson’s regression was the struggles of quarterback Blake Bortles. Bortles had 35 touchdowns and averaged 12.5 yards per completion in 2015, but only had 23 touchdowns and averaged 10.6 yards per completion in 2016. Things have been so bad for him during the preseason that he could possibly lose the starting job to Chad Henne.

While some owners still remember Robinson’s insane 2015 season and think he could bounce back in a major way this season, I’m not one of them. The struggles at the quarterback position will continue to limit his value, making him a low end WR2 at best. Don’t be surprised is Marshall has a better season than Robinson.

Sammy Watkins – Los Angeles Rams

Watkins got off to a great start to his career, hauling in 65 receptions for 982 yards and six touchdowns in his rookie season in 2014. He followed that up with 60 receptions, 1,047 yards and nine touchdowns while playing in only 13 games in 2015. However, injuries limited him even more in 2016 as he played only eight games. The end result was only 28 receptions, 430 yards and two touchdowns.

The Buffalo Bills have moved on from Watkins, sending him to the Rams as Los Angeles attempts to surround Jared Goff with some talent. Kenny Britt lead the team with 68 receptions for 1,002 yards last season, but he has moved on to the Cleveland Browns. Goff struggled in his seven starts last season, completing only 54.6 percent of his passes and throwing only five touchdowns compared to seven interceptions.

The problem with Watkins from a fantasy perspective is his name still carries more value than his numbers. He has a lot of talent, but injuries have put a major damper on the start of his career. It should not be overlooked that he also had a very solid quarterback with the Bills in Tyrod Taylor. Taylor had a 61.7 percent completion percentage and 17 passing touchdowns compared to only six interceptions in 15 games last year.

When you factor in his injury history and having Goff as his QB, Watkins becomes a risky fantasy option. Let someone else take the risk.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Wide Receivers 2017 - Cameron Meredith - Chicago Bears

Undervalued Players

Cameron Meredith – Chicago Bears

Meredith broke out in 2016 as he hauled in 66 receptions for 888 yards and four touchdowns. He averaged 13.5 yards per reception and caught 68 percent of the passes thrown his way. All this production came in only 14 games as he did not play until Week 3. Meredith finished last season on a high note as he had at least 104 yards in two of his last three games and at least 61 yards in each of his last five games.

The Bears lost Alshon Jeffery to the Philadelphia Eagles this off season, dealing a significant blow to their receiving unit. They did bring in Victor Cruz and Kendall Wright, but neither player is in the same class as Jeffery. Their other main receiver is Kevin White, who can’t seem to stay healthy during his young career. He was limited to only four games last year, recording 19 receptions for 187 yards.

The Bears should also have improved quarterback play this season. They used the trio of Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley last year, which combined for 18 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. This season they signed Mike Glennon away from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and draft Mitchell Trubisky with the second overall pick. Although Glennon is the presumed starter for at least the beginning of the season, you would have to figure either he or Trubisky can’t do much worse than last season’s quarterbacks.

Meredith is going far too late in drafts based on his potential. A 1,000 yard season is not out of the question, making him someone to keep your eye on for the later rounds of your draft.

Willie Snead – New Orleans Saints

Snead is coming off a very solid 2016 campaign as he posted 72 receptions for 895 yards and four touchdowns in only his second season in the NFL. He has had at least 100 targets and averaged at least 12.4 yards per catch in both seasons of his career.

The most significant loss for the Saints this off season was trading Cooks to the Patriots, leaving his 117 targets up for grabs. Some of those targets will be taken by Michael Thomas, but he already had 121 targets and 92 receptions in his rookie campaign last year. They also signed Ted Ginn Jr., but he has never had more than 56 receptions in any season of his career.

Drew Brees continues to put up big numbers as the Saints were first in passing yards, second in completion percentage and tied for second in passing touchdowns in the NFL last year. With Brees showing no signs of slowing down and Cooks gone, this has the makings of a big season for Snead. While he may not be a big contributor in the touchdown department, look for him to reach 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Wide Receivers 2017 - Julio Jones - Atlanta Falcons - Lineuplab

A Look At The Fantasy Playoff Schedule

Another key part of your research is to know who has favorable match ups during the fantasy football playoffs, generally weeks 15 and 16 in most leagues. Let’s dive in and see where you can gain that edge.

Favorable Schedules

Julio Jones – Atlanta Falcons

There is no question that Jones is one of the best wide receivers in the league. He finished last season with 83 receptions, 1,409 yards and six touchdowns in only 14 games. Big things are expected from him again this season and he has great match ups during the fantasy playoffs. Week 15 brings a match up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who he had 12 receptions, 177 yards and two touchdowns against in two games last season. Week 16 brings the Saints who allowed the most passing yards in the league last season. Jones is primed to put up some of his best numbers when it matters the most this year.

Demaryius Thomas – Denver Broncos

Thomas may not have great quarterbacks throwing him the ball, but that didn’t stop him from recording his fifth straight season with at least 1,000 receiving yards last year. He gets an excellent match up in Week 15 against the Indianapolis Colts who allowed the sixth most passing yards and tied for the second fewest interceptions last season. Week 16 isn’t that difficult either as he gets to face the Washington Redskins. The Redskins allowed the eighth most receiving yards and were in the bottom four in completion percentage last year. Look for Thomas to cash in during these two games.

Difficult Schedules

Terrelle Pryor – Washington Redskins

Although big things are expected from Pryor his season, his fantasy playoff schedule is a nightmare. Week 15 brings a contest against the Arizona Cardinals who allowed the fourth fewest passing yards and were tied for the eighth fewest passing touchdowns allowed. Week 16 brings the worst match up of them all against the Broncos as they allowed the fewest passing yards and fewest passing touchdowns last season. If you are lucky enough to make your fantasy playoffs, your hopes better not rest on Pryor or you are bound to be disappointed.

T.Y. Hilton – Indianapolis Colts

While Pryor gets the Broncos in Week 16, Hilton has to face them in Week 15. One more great stat for the Broncos defense is they only allowed 5.8 yards per reception last year. Known for his big play ability, that’s not good news for Hilton. He will play the Baltimore Ravens on the road in Week 16 who allowed the ninth fewest passing yards and tied for the most interceptions in the league last season. Hilton is an elite talent, but his value could be significantly limited in the final two games of the fantasy season.






Fantasy Football Season Preview: Running Backs 2017

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

**Mike Barner**

Fantasy Football Season Preview Running Backs 2017

The long journey through the NFL season is rapidly approaching, meaning it’s one of the most exciting times of the year: drafting your fantasy football team. While you need your players to stay healthy and have a little luck go your way, having a strong draft can go a long way to determining the fate of your season.

Lineup Lab is here to help you come away a winner. In the second of our season previews, we’ll break down the running back position. Wide Receivers have been the darlings of fantasy drafts in recent years, but the running back position is making a claim to dominate the first few spots in many drafts this season. Even in leagues where PPR scoring would appear to favor the receivers, running backs who can also catch passes out of the backfield can carry tremendous value.

Whether you want to draft elite running backs early or select a sleeper or two in the later rounds, we’ll examine some players to target and avoid as you navigate your way through your draft.

Adrian Peterson - Fantasy Football Season Preview Running Backs 2017 - New Orleans Saints - Lineup Lab

Old Faces In New Places

Adrian Peterson – New Orleans Saints

Peterson joins the Saints after spending a decade with the Minnesota Vikings. To say he posted some impressive stats with the Vikings is an understatement. He rushed for at least 1,266 yards and scored at least ten rushing touchdowns in each season where he played in at least 14 games. His best season was in 2012 when he had 2,097 rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdowns, 217 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown.

Peterson has seen his career take a turn for the worse due to injury as he has played three games or less in two of the last three seasons. He only played three games in 2016, rushing a meager 37 times for 72 yards total while failing to reach the end zone.

While he was the undisputed number one back in Minnesota, he doesn’t have a clear path for a significant workload with the Saints. He joins a backfield that already has talented hold over Mark Ingram. Ingram had the best season of his career last year as he had 1,043 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns, 319 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns. The Saints also drafted Alvin Kamara in the third round, adding further talent to their squad.

It’s highly unlikely that Peterson is going to match his significant production years because not only will he be sharing the workload, but he’s not the same physically that he once was. That being said, he could still provide touchdowns as their power back when they get towards the goal line. Best case scenario for him from a fantasy perspective though is probably to finish as a low-end RB2.

Marshawn Lynch – Oakland Raiders

Lynch returns to the NFL after a brief one-year retirement. He had an excellent stretch from 2011 through 2014 with the Seattle Seahawks where he rushed for at least 1,200 yards and scored at least 11 rushing touchdowns in each season. Known for being a power runner, he’s no slouch in the passing game either as he has recorded at least 300 receiving yards three times in his career.

The 2015 season was a struggle for Lynch as he was limited to only seven games due to injury. He only averaged 3.8 yards per carry, his lowest average since 2010. While he decided to retire after that season, he couldn’t resist coming back to play in his hometown for the Raiders this season.

Due to his style of play, the year off may actually benefit Lynch. He also has the benefit of playing behind a very good offensive line. The Raiders finished sixth in the NFL last season with 1,922 rushing yards as a team and tied for sixth in rushing touchdowns with 17. Throw in talented offensive players like quarterback Derek Carr and wide receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree and you get a potentially potent offense.

Lynch will have to share some of the workload with DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard, but he is still going to get the majority of the carries. It would not be surprising if he finishes the season with close to 1,000 rushing yards and double-digit touchdowns.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Running Backs 2017 - Spencer Ware - Kansas City Chiefs - Lineup Lab

Overrated Players

Spencer Ware – Kansas City Chiefs

Ware showed plenty of promise in 2015 in limited action as he averaged 5.6 yards per carry and scored six rushing touchdowns on only 72 rushing attempts. Jamaal Charles was limited to only three games and 12 carries in 2016, opening the door for Ware to become the feature back in Kansas City.

Ware’s overall 2016 stats are impressive as he recorded 921 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, 447 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. He finished with averages of 4.3 yards per carry and 13.5 yards per reception.

A closer look at his numbers though show that he did most of his damage in the beginning of the season, then tailed off dramatically. In the first five games of the season, he averaged at least 5.5 yards per carry in four games and had two of his three rushing touchdowns for the season. Over the last eight games he played for the season, he failed to rush for more than 69 yards in any game and finished with an average of 3.8 yards per carry or less in five of the final six games.

While he enters this season as the starting running back, his work load is expected to be threatened by rookie Kareem Hunt, who should at least take away some opportunities in the passing game. Hunt rushed for 1,475 yards and had 403 receiving yards in college last season, showing he can be a dual-threat in the backfield. Ware can still provide valuable fantasy contributions, but don’t expect him to be anything more than a low-end RB2. If you are playing in a PPR format, Hunt’s presence creates an even bigger threat to Ware’s value.

Paul Perkins – New York Giants

Perkins had a solid rookie campaign for the Giants as he rushed for 456 yards and averaged 4.2 yards per carry. He also contributed to the passing attack with 15 receptions and 162 receiving yards. He is expected to be the starting running back this season after the Giants moved on from Rashad Jennings.

Perkins is a trendy pick to have a breakout campaign this season, but I’m not buying it. He had 127 total touches last season, but failed to reach the end zone even once. The Giants offensive line was terrible last season as the team only averaged 3.5 yards per carry, good for third worst in the NFL. They did nothing to improve the line heading into this season either, so there isn’t much reason to believe they will be any better.

The Giants are a pass heavy team as they will likely throw the ball as much (if not more) this season since they brought in both Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram during the off season. It’s also important to remember that Shane Vereen missed most of last season due to injury. He’s going to play a lot when the Giants are looking to throw the ball and he had 59 receptions on 81 targets when he was last healthy for them in 2015.

While it’s going to be hard for Perkins to not at least record a few touchdowns this season, don’t believe the hype. I would not want him to be one of the starting running backs on my fantasy squad.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Running Backs 2017 - LaGarrette Blount - Lineuplab - Philadelphia Eagles

Undervalued Players

LeGarrette Blount – Philadelphia Eagles

Blount is coming off of the best season of his career as he had 1,161 rushing yards and a whopping 18 rushing touchdowns for the New England Patriots last year. To put that into perspective, he had a total of 18 rushing touchdowns in his previous three seasons combined.

Blount is now a member of the Eagles and could thrive yet again. Don’t worry about him not being involved in the passing game because of Darren Sproles as Blount has never caught more than 15 passes in a season anyways. Ryan Mathews played the same role last season that Blount will this year. He came away with 8 touchdowns and 661 yards in only 13 games last year.

The Eagles are going to be much improved offensively this season with quarterback Carson Wentz entering his second season and adding receivers Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith, meaning Blount could have plenty of red zone opportunities. He’s not going to score 18 touchdowns again, but I don’t think 10 touchdowns and 750 yards is out of the question. That’s a valuable contributor that can be had in the middle rounds of many drafts.

Samaje Perine – Washington Redskins

Perine had an excellent college career with Oklahoma as he rushed for at least 1,060 yards and had at least 12 rushing touchdowns in all three seasons. While those numbers are great, his 6.0 yards per carry average over those three seasons is exceptional.

He joins a Redskins offense that was known as more of a passing unit last season as only five other teams had fewer rushing attempts. Rob Kelley was their most prominent running back, finishing with 704 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns. Although the Redskins didn’t run much, their average of 4.5 yards per carry was good for ninth best in the NFL.

While Kelley is the projected starter this season, don’t be surprised if Perine passes him at some point. Kelley showed flashes last season, but had 37 rushing yards or less in three of his last six games. You have to take some chances and hit on some late-round picks to have a real shot at winning your league. I think Perine is one of those late-round players who could provide a nice return on investment.

Fantasy Football Season Preview Running Backs 2017 - Jordan Howard - Chicago Bears - Lineuplab

A Look At The Fantasy Playoff Schedule

Another key part of your research is to know who has favorable match ups during the fantasy football playoffs, generally weeks 15 and 16 in most leagues. Let’s dive in and see where you can gain that edge.

Favorable Schedules

Jordan Howard – Chicago Bears

Howard has one of the best fantasy playoff schedules as he gets to face the Detroit Lions on the road in Week 15 and the Cleveland Browns at home in Week 16. Although the Lions only allowed eight rushing touchdowns last season, they did allow an average of 4.4 yards per carry. Howard played well against them last year, rushing for 197 yards total in two games. The Browns were terrible against the run last season as only three times had a higher average than their 4.6 yards per carry allowed. They also allowed 18 rushing touchdowns, a total surpassed by only five other teams. Howard is a great fantasy option on the season overall, but he could really cash in during the playoffs.

Jay Ajayi – Miami Dolphins

Ajayi had a breakout season in 2016 and could be in for an even bigger role in the offense this season with Ryan Tannehill out for the year. He gets to face the Buffalo Bills in Week 15, a team that allowed the fourth most rushing yards and second most rushing touchdowns last season. Week 16 brings a match up with the Chiefs who allowed 121.1 rushing yards per game last season, good for seventh most in the NFL.  Expect big things from Ajayi when it matters the most.

Difficult Schedules

Todd Gurley – Los Angeles Rams

Gurley faces an extremely difficult task in Week 15 as he squares off against the Seattle Seahawks on the road. The Seahawks allowed only 3.4 yards per carry last season, which was the best in the NFL. Gurley did not perform well against them last year either as he rushed for only 89 yards against them in two games combined. Week 16 is no cake walk either as he will take on the Tennessee Titans, a team who actually allowed less rushing yards than the Seahawks did.

Carlos Hyde – San Francisco 49ers

Hyde also has the dubious task of facing the Titans as they take on the 49ers in Week 15. Not only did the Titans not allow many rushing yards, but their 10 rushing touchdowns allowed was tied for fifth best in the league. It doesn’t get much easier for Hyde and the 49ers in Week 16 as they take on the Jacksonville Jaguars, who only allowed an average of 3.8 yards per carry last season. Taking into consideration Hyde’s injury history, this fantasy playoff schedule doesn’t do his fantasy value any favors either.

Fantasy Football Season Preview: Quarterbacks

by Mike Barner 0 Comments

**Mike Barner**

The long journey through the NFL season is rapidly approaching, meaning it’s one of the most exciting times of the year: drafting your fantasy football team. While you need your players to stay healthy and have a little luck go your way, having a strong draft can go a long way to determining the fate of your season.

Lineup Lab is here to help you come away a winner. In the first of our season previews, we’ll break down the quarterback position. While it’s the most important position in the NFL, it’s not necessarily the most important position in fantasy football. If you don’t get one of the elite signal callers, a sound strategy is to wait until later in the draft as there is plenty of depth at the position.

Whether you want to swing for the fences and take your quarterback early or wait for a sleeper in the later rounds, we’ll examine some players to target and avoid as you navigate your way through your draft.

Fantasy Football Season Preview - Mike Glennon - Chicago Bears - Lineup Lab

Old Faces In New Places

Mike Glennon – Chicago Bears

Glennon joins the Bears after spending the first four seasons of his career with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With Jameis Winston at the helm, it was an easy decision for the Bucs to let Glennon leave in free agency. Glennon started 13 games during his rookie season in 2013 and posted a 59.4% completion percentage to go with 2,608 yards, 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He started five games in 2014, but has only appeared in two games the last two seasons.

Although Glennon signed a three-year deal with the Bears, they could get out of the deal after this season. It appears that could be a likely scenario as they just drafted Mitchell Trubisky with the second overall pick.

Glennon doesn’t have the best weapons around him to succeed this season. While Jordan Howard is an excellent running back, his receiving core leaves a lot to be desired. The Bears lost Alshon Jeffery to the Philadephia Eagles, which is a significant blow to the team. Although they brought in a big name in Victor Cruz, he is a much different player than Jeffery and his best days appear to be behind him.

That leaves Glennon’s top wideouts as the combination of Kevin White and Cameron Meredith. White was limited to four games last season and only averaged 46.8 yards in those games. Meredith had a breakout campaign in 2016 as he had 66 receptions, 888 yards and four touchdowns. Glennon has a solid tight end in Zach Miller to pair with White and Meredith, but none of the three players are elite targets.

Stay away from Glennon as not only does he have limited weapons, but there is a chance he could end up on the bench in favor of Trubisky at some point during the season.

Jay Cutler – Miami Dolphins

Cutler was ready to begin his career as a broadcaster until the Dolphins lost Ryan Tannehill for the season with a knee injury. Cutler was limited to only five games due to injury himself last season, but was struggling even when healthy as he had four touchdowns, five interceptions and a 33.2 QBR for the season. He had some strong campaigns early in his career, but has thrown for less than 20 touchdowns in four of his last six seasons.

Unlike Glennon, Cutler actually has some weapons in wide receivers Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker. Although Landry only has eight total touchdowns in the last two seasons, he did record at least 94 receptions and 1,136 yards in both years. The Dolphins also brought in Julius Thomas at tight end, hoping to revive his career after two terrible seasons with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Even with his struggles though, he did have nine total touchdowns in Jacksonville.

The Dolphins should be a run heavy offense behind Jay Ajayi, but Cutler has never been known to be a game manager. Even with several talented offensive players around him, Cutler is no longer a valuable fantasy option outside of two quarterback leagues.

Fantasy Football Season Preview - Russell Wilson - Seattle Seahawks - Lineuplab

Overrated Players

Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks

Don’t get me wrong, Wilson has put up some big numbers in his career. He finished 2016 with a career-high 4,219 passing yards to go along with 21 passing touchdowns, 259 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown. Durability is a big part of his value as he has yet to miss a game in his career. He has also thrown nine interceptions or less in three of his five seasons in the league.

With that being said, he’s going too high in drafts. Last season, he finished 10th in the NFL in passing yards, 12th in passing yards per game and 17th in passing touchdowns. While he can add value in the running game, he only finished ninth in total rushing yards for a quarterback. To put that into perspective, he only had 52 more rushing yards and actually one less rushing touchdown than Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford.

Wilson is likely to be picked among the top five quarterbacks in many leagues, but his production doesn’t match that price. You’d be better off waiting a few rounds and picking up someone like Marcus Mariota of the Tennessee Titans or Jameis Winston of the Bucs as they could approach (if not exceed) Wilson’s production.

Ben Roethlisberger – Pittsburgh Steelers

Roethlisberger has put up some monster numbers in his career. He went through a stretch from 2009 through 2014 where he threw for at least 4,000 yards four times and averaged 25 passing touchdowns per season. The best season of his career was in 2014 when he threw for 4,952 yards to go along with 32 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. That’s elite production.

Big Ben also has elite weapons around him, led by Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. Brown has at least 106 receptions and 1,284 receiving yards in each of the last three seasons while Bell is one of the premier pass catching running backs in the league.

However, Roethlisberger has regressed the last two seasons, mainly because of injuries. He appeared in 12 games in 2015 and 14 games in 2016. Even in games when he does take the field, he seems to be dealing with nagging injuries more often than not.

Another area of concern is his crazy home and road splits. In home games last season, Roethlisberger averaged 319 passing yards per game and posted 20 touchdowns to only five interceptions. On the road, he only averaged 238 passing yards per game while recording nine passing touchdowns and eight interceptions. When you look at his touchdowns and interceptions, it’s even more staggering when you consider he played eight road games last year and only six home games.

Is this a one-year fluke you ask? No, it’s certainly not. Although his passing yards per game were much closer (348 at home compared to 308 on the road) in 2015, his totals were still way off as he had 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions at home compared to only five touchdowns and nine interceptions on the road.

There is limited value in a quarterback who you can only start with confidence in half of his games. Let someone else take the risk.

Fantasy Football Season Preview - Jameis Winston - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Lineuplab

Undervalued Players

Jameis Winston – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Winston has had success in his young career as he has surpassed at least 4,000 passing yards in both seasons in the NFL. He has 50 touchdowns and 33 interceptions total while not missing a game so far.

Last season he threw for 4,090 yards, 28 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. His passing stats are impressive when you consider outside of star receiver Mike Evans, the offense was lacking talent. Evans had 96 receptions for 1,321 yards. The next highest totals were both posted by tight end Cameron Brate, who logged 57 receptions for 660 yards.

The Bucs have added some serious talent to their offense this season by bringing in wide receiver DeSean Jackson and drafting tight end O.J Howard. Jackson adds much-needed speed and has averaged at least 17.6 yards per catch in each of the last three seasons. Howard can help create some difficult match ups when paired with Brate on the field while also providing solid blocking.

This season is shaping up to be another big campaign for Winston. If you prefer to wait on a quarterback, Winston can be drafted long after the elite options are off the board, but could still post a top-10 season.

Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles

Wentz had a respectable rookie season, throwing for 3,782 yards to go along with 16 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He also added 150 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. While none of these numbers are eye-popping, take into consideration the talent he had around him. The team leader in both receptions (78) and receiving yards (816) was tight end Zach Ertz. Of their top four leaders in receptions, two were tight ends, one was a running back and only one was a wide receiver.

Although the Eagles traded away Jordan Matthews, they made significant upgrades at wide receiver by bringing in both Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith. Despite playing only 12 games last season, Jeffery still had more receiving yards (821) than anyone on the Eagles last year. Smith may not haul in a ton of catches, but he has averaged at least 16.8 yards per catch in four of his six seasons in the NFL.

With Ertz returning as well, Wentz has three legitimate options to throw to this season. The schedule also appears to be in Wentz’s favor this season as six of the Eagles 16 games come against teams who finished in the bottom nine of the NFL with regards to passing yards allowed last season. They also face only two teams who finished in the top five in passing yards allowed last season.

While he can be had in the later rounds of most drafts, Wentz has the potential to put up top-15 numbers at quarterback this season.

Fantasy Football Season Preview - Matt Ryan - Atlanta Falcons - Lineuplab

A Look At The Fantasy Playoff Schedule

Another key part of your research is to know who has favorable match ups during the fantasy football playoffs, generally weeks 15 and 16 in most leagues. Let’s dive in and see where you can gain that edge.

Favorable Schedules

Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons

Ryan has two road match ups in weeks 15 and 16, but they come against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Week 15) and the New Orleans Saints (Week 16). The Saints allowed the most passing yards in the NFL last season while the Bucs were one of 11 teams in the league to allow at least 4,000 passing yards. If you can make it to the playoffs, Ryan could help push you to a title.

Joe Flacco – Baltimore Ravens

Flacco also has an advantage in the fantasy playoffs as he faces the Cleveland Browns on the road in Week 15 and the Indianapolis Colts at home in Week 16. The Browns allowed 36 passing touchdowns last season, the most in the NFL. The Colts allowed 27 passing touchdowns of their own while also giving up 4,200 passing yards, which was good for sixth most in the league. You don’t want Flacco to be your starting QB for the entire season, but keep an eye on him when injuries mount at the end of the season and he gets this favorable schedule.

Difficult Schedules

Andrew Luck – Indianapolis Colts

Luck faces tough opponents as he gets the Denver Broncos at home in Week 15 and the Baltimore Ravens on the road in Week 16. The Broncos had the best pass defense in the NFL last season. They allowed a league-low 2,972 passing yards and had more interceptions (14) than passing touchdowns allowed (13). The Ravens were no slouch either as they tied for the league lead in interceptions (18) and finished in the top-nine in passing yards allowed. Luck could be in for some disappointing performances when it matters the most.

Kirk Cousins – Washington Redskins

Cousins is a trendy pick this season to outproduce his draft spot. While he might have a good season overall, the fantasy playoffs will be no picnic. Both games are at home, but he has to play the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15 and the Broncos in Week 16. I already detailed how deadly the Broncos’ defense is, but the Cardinals are very tough as well. They limited the opposition to only 210 passing yards per game and 21 touchdowns last season, both in the top-10 in the league. Of all the tough fantasy playoff schedules, Cousins may have the toughest.